Shoe Carnival sees net sales decline as strategic shift to Shoe Station drives future growth potential

Good morning and welcome to Shoe Carnival's third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press STAR followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press Star one again. Today's conference call is being recorded and is also being broadcast via webcast. Any reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this call is expressly prohibited. Management's remarks today may contain forward looking statements that involve a number of risk factors. These risk factors could cause the Company's actual results to be materially different from those projected in such statements. Forward looking statements should also be considered in conjunction with the discussion of risk factors and included in the company's SEC filings and today's earning press release. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements which speak only as of today's date. The Company disclaims any obligation to update any of the risk factors or to publicly announce any revisions to the forward looking statements discussed on today's conference call or contained in today's press release to reflect future events or developments. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Mark Warden, President and CEO of Shoe Carnival, for opening remarks. Mr. Warden, you may begin.

Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us today. With me are Carrie Jackson, our Chief Financial Officer, and Tanya Gordon, our Chief Merchandising Officer. This is a pivotal moment for our company. Last week we announced that our Board of Directors unanimously approved changing our corporate name to Shoestation Group Incorporated, subject to approval of the name change by our shareholders at our annual meeting to be held in June 2026. That decision reflects our board's conviction about where this company is headed. We're building a stronger, more focused and more profitable company today. I'll walk you through our third quarter performance, update you on where we are in executing the strategy and provide context for fiscal 2026 and 2027. Let's start with the quarter. We delivered a strong third quarter EPS of $0.53 and net sales of $297.2 million both exceeded consensus expectations. Gross profit margin expanded 160 basis points to 37.6%. Driven by disciplined pricing and our continued shift toward the higher income shoe station customer. We achieved positive comparable sales during August. Back to school with margin expansion. That's significant given the promotional intensity across family footwear, retail and the continued pressure on lower income households. Athletics represented 51% of total sales in the quarter and delivered low single digit growth overall. At shoestation specifically, our focus on premium brands and higher transaction values drove double digit athletic growth in both Q3 and year. To date, our non athletic categories represented 43% of Q3 total sales with a mid single digit comp decline overall. Similar to prior quarters, Shoe Station outperformed in every major category versus Shoe Carnival. The story beneath these numbers is what matters most. Our two banners delivered very different results. In the third quarter Shoe Station net sales grew 5.3%. Shoe Station product margins expanded 260 basis points. Meanwhile, Shoe Carnival net sales declined 5.2% reflecting continued pressure on lower income households earning under $40,000 annually. That's a 10.5 percentage point performance gap between our two banners. This divergence isn't new. Been discussing it for quarters. What's different now is the scale of the gap and our conviction that it will persist. Shoestation's core customer median household income $60,000 to $100,000 is choosing premium product, seeking elevated service and responding to our brand positioning. The traditional Shoe Carnival customer is is under economic pressure and the competitive response in that segment is driving margins down across the industry. This quarter we maintained pricing discipline instead of propping up traffic from a lower income customer, a segment we are strategically shifting away from. As a result, Carnival also expanded product margin. We are not chasing unprofitable sales. Third quarter EPS included a 22 cent impact from planned re banner investments year to date. That's 58 cents per share. These are planned investments to convert underperforming locations into the Shoe Station format that's demonstrably winning. We expect to recover these investments within two to three years following each store's conversion. Let me give you the numbers on our Progress. We completed 101 store re banners during fiscal 2025. We now operate 428 stores, 144 Shoe Station locations and 284 Shoe Carnival locations. This evolution started with Test and Learn, moved to scaling across the Southeast and is now a full chain rollout. We acquired Shoe Station in December 2021 with 21 stores. We started this fiscal year with station representing just 10% of our fleet. Today station is 34% of the total store fleet. By back to school 2026 it will be 51%. That 51% threshold is the inflection point when Shoe Station becomes the majority of this business and we expect to return to comparable Sales growth Based on what we have learned through 101 store conversions this year, we now expect that well over 90% of our fleet will operate a Shoe Station before the end of fiscal 2028. The remaining locations will be evaluated for rebannering, outlet repositioning or closure. Why consolidate to one brand? Running two distinct banners with different customer targets, different merchandising strategies and different operating models is inefficient. Every quarter this year, the sales performance gap between Shoe Station and Shoe carnival has exceeded 10 percentage points. We're leaving value on the table by maintaining dual infrastructure when one banner is clearly winning. What makes Shoe Station different comes down to three things. The customer Station serves the American median income household $60,000 to $100,000 stable everyday workers value conscious but not price driven. Carnival serves a value focused customer facing economic pressure. The product approach Station offers premium brand access, higher transaction values and strong full price selling. Carnival focuses on opening price points and a promotional model. The Experience Station is modern and approachable, low profile merchandising, easy to shop, service oriented. Carnival is high energy, treasure hunt, promotional intensity. Both models work for their customers, but consumer preferences are shifting toward best brands, premium product and quality over lowest price. That's the Shoestation customer. Consolidating to one brand creates significant structural advantages. By the end of fiscal 2027, we expect $20 million in annual cost savings and operating efficiencies. We expect comparable sales growth to resume as Shoe Station becomes the dominant fat. And we're executing this on a foundation of financial strength. We're debt free with over $100 million in cash and securities funding this entire program from operating cash flow. Just as we funded operations and growth for 20 consecutive years. We're building one team, one infrastructure, one P&L. Now turning to inventory and the value we're unlocking. We bought heavy this year to de risk tariff volatility. It worked. We delivered positive comps storing back to school. We're fully loaded for fall, holiday and spring. Now we plan to sell through this extra tariff related inventory and and moves to the next phase. By the end of fiscal 2027, we'll free up $100 million in working capital. This isn't about cutting corners. It's a fundamentally different operating model. Shoestation unlocks this capital through superior merchandising. Station presents product clearly curated, organized, easy to browse and shop. Station generates higher transaction values which means we need fewer units to deliver strong sales performance. The Carnival model is stack it high and let it fly, requiring deep inventory to maintain Towering displays and promotional volume. Shoestation delivers a superior customer experience with less inventory per store, better merchandising drives, better turns, better margins and capital efficiency. That's $100 million we plan to deploy toward growth. Let me walk you through what's ahead in the key milestones. Fiscal 2026 is our inflection year. We're converting 70 stores to reach the critical 51% shoe station threshold by back to school. That's the milestone when Station becomes the majority of this business and and the dominant driver of our results. First half of 2026 will see similar dynamics to 2025 as we work through rebounder conversions. Second half we cross 51% and expect to return to comparable sales growth. This requires P and L investment in fiscal 2026. One brand synergies begin, but the full benefit comes toward the end of fiscal 2027. The end of fiscal 2027 is when the full picture comes together. We expect $20 million in cost savings, $100 million freed from inventory reduction, comparable sales growth restored and EPS expanding. Bottom line, we're investing through 2025, all of 2026 and into 2027. We see modest gains beginning in 2027 and and meaningful acceleration in 2028. Kerry will give you more specifics on fiscal 2026 and 2027. Let me bring this together. The performance gap tells the story. Shoe Station outperformed Shoe Carnival by more than 10 percentage points this quarter. Station margins expanded 260 basis points. The industry is declining, but we're growing where the consumer is headed. Premium brand, better experience. Customers who value quality. We're executing this from a position of strength. Debt free. Over $100 million in cash and securities. 20 consecutive years of self funding our growth. We have the financial flexibility to invest through this transformation and build for the long term. When our board approved changing the corporate name to shoestation Group, it wasn't about branding. It was about conviction. Conviction that this strategy is ripe for long term value creation and building a stronger company. This isn't a rebrand. It's a repositioning of this entire company around what's winning. I'll now turn the call over to Kerry for the detailed financials. Our fiscal 2025 outlook and perspective on 26 and 2027. After Kerry's remarks, I'll have brief closing comments before we open for questions.

Kerry thank you Mark and good morning everyone. Let me start with the quarter performance then walk you through our outlook and the financial framework for fiscal 2026 and 2027. Net sales totaled 297.2 million down 3.2% versus 306.9 million last year. Comparable store sales declined 2.7% including approximately a half a percentage point of headwind from the 56 stores rebandered during the quarter. The banner divergence Mark described is the critical story. Shoe Station net sales grew 5.3% with mid single digit comparable sales growth. Shoe Carnival net sales declined 5.2% with mid single digit comparable sales decline. Rogan's generated 21 million in net sales consistent with our integration plan. Three category highlights worth noting. First, men's and women's athletics 35% of our business delivered break even comps overall but Shoestation's athletic business grew high teens second kids footwear 22% of Q3 sales delivered low double digit athletic growth at Station overall for the company. Kids was down low singles for the quarter due to weakness in kids non athletic footwear. Third, the boot season started modestly but we were well positioned with inventory depth as we move into the heart of the season. Rounding out the categories men's and women's non athletic categories both declined mid single digits compared to Q3 last year. Athletics across our men's, women's and kids categories with 51% of our business in in the quarter up from 49% in Q3 last year and was key to our overall comp positive results in Back to School August. Shoe Station's athletic sales have strong comparable store growth every quarter this year as our premium brands continue to resonate with higher income consumers that the Shoe Station banner attracts. Non Athletics was 43% of our total sales in Q3 compared to down 1% from last year, again reflecting the strong athletic cycle we are in. Gross Profit margin expanded 160 basis points to 37.6% exceeding the high end of our guidance. Merchandise margins increased 190 basis points driven by disciplined pricing, favorable mix shift towards Shoe Station's higher income consumers and our strategic inventory investments. This more than offset 30 basis points of deleverage in our buying, distribution occupancy costs. SGA was 93.2 million or 31.3% of sales compared to 85.9 million or 28% of sales last year. The 3.3 percentage point increase breaks down as follows. 2.5 points reflects banner reinvestments including store closing costs, new store construction, depreciation and customer acquisition costs. The remaining 0.8 points is the deleveraging on lower sales. The Revanner P and l investment in Q3 was approximately $8 billion year to date we've invested 20 million in operating income or 58 cents per share towards this transformation. Net income for Q3 was 14.6 million or 53 cents per diluted share compared to 19.2 million or 70 cents per share last year. This year over year decrease of 17 cents primarily reflects on our rebanner investments which we estimate impacted Q3 by $0.22 per share in the quarter. Our EPS otherwise grew by $0.05. The 2 to 3 year payback of these rebanner investments we've consistently discussed remains on track. Shoestation's net sales were up 3.8% year to date compared to Shoe Carnival's net sales down 8.5%. Said differently year to date through Q3, Shoestation's net sales growth has outperformed Shoe Carnival by 12.3 percentage points. These results support the one banner strategy timeline mark just outlined and our view of the long term profit potential from doing so. Our balance sheet continues to strengthen. We ended the quarter with over 107 million in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities up 18.2% versus last year and we remain debt free with $100 million available credit. Based on strong Q3 results and continued rebander momentum, we updated our full year outlook. We are reaffirming our net sales guidance and continue to expect net sales of 1.12 billion to 1.15 billion. We are raising the EPS guidance range to $1.80 to $2.10, increasing the low end by $0.10. We continue to expect gross profit margin of 36.5% to 37.5% and now expect SGA in the range of 350 million to 355 million, down 5 million from previous guidance for Q4. Specifically, we are forecasting net sales of 240 million to 270 million ranging from down 7% to up 2% compared to Q4 last year with a midpoint down 3%. Consistent with Q3 trends. Our Q4 net sales range is wider than typical given macroeconomic volatility, consumer behavior and non event periods and fourth quarter weather uncertainty. We expect Q4 EPS in the range consistent with consensus prior to our earnings release in a range of 25 to 30 cents. Q4 EPS in that range targets full year EPS at the lower end of our annual outlook. The higher end of our outlook assumes stronger holiday selling and improvement in lower income consumer spending. Regarding our one banner strategy, we've re bannered 101 stores in fiscal 2025 including 56 in Q3 and one additional store after quarter end. We anticipate no further rebanders this year. The Rogans acquisition is now fully integrated into SCHUH Station and beginning in Q4 we'll report Rogan's results as a part of the Shoe Station banner. Year to date Rebanner CapEx is approximately 31 million with minimal additional CapEx expected for the remainder of the year. Full year PL investment remains on track at approximately 25 million. For Q4 we expect RE Banner Investments of 10 to 12 cents per share, bringing the full year impact to 68 to 70 cents per share. Looking ahead our fiscal 2026 and 2027 framework while we're not providing detailed fiscal 2026 guidance today that will come in March, we can provide transparency on what to expect. As Mark has clearly identified, it's critical for our financial success to reach the milestone of 51% of our store's banner to Shoe Station, our inflection point. To achieve that goal, fiscal 2026 will be a year of continued investment. We believe that next year's investments will lead to a return to sales and earnings growth in fiscal 2027 and further accelerating in fiscal 2028. As we complete the rebandering program, let me detail our future expectations for sales, SGA and inventory reductions. Sales trends will mirror what we've seen in fiscal 2025. The first half will be challenging as shoe Cornwall's mid to high single digit declines more than offset stations growth. The inflection comes in the second half when station crosses 51% of fleet. We expect flat to very low single digit growth in the back half. Overall. For fiscal 2026 we expect net sales and comparable sales will be down but improve compared to the 6% year to date declines we have seen so far this year. With respect to SGA for fiscal 2026 we expect Rebanner investments to range from 25 to 30 million for the entire year. Given the timing of the rebanners in fiscal 2026, we do expect costs in fiscal 2026 to be more front loaded. In addition, we continue to recognize costs associated with stores rebandered in fiscal 2025 as we continue to educate customers in those markets and as capex investments made in fiscal 2025 are depreciated. As a result, we currently see significant SGA investment in Q1 and Q2 of fiscal 2026 compared to 2025 and we expect those headwinds to moderate post back to school as fiscal 2025 costs become comparable and and the 20 million of expected synergies and efficiencies from implementation of the One Banner strategy begin to be realized. Overall, we do not expect SGA decline in fiscal 2026 compared to fiscal 2025 and may increase. Given the impacts on sales and SGA, we expect fiscal 2026 EPS to be lower than fiscal 2025 with more significant decreases in Q1 and Q2 compared to the prior year. Now for more insight on expected inventory reductions driven by the One Banner strategy. We expect higher inventory for the remainder of fiscal 2025 and for inventory at the end of fiscal 25 to be flat to up from the Q3 balance inclusive of additional buys in Q4 to support launching new athletic assortments and styles next year. The level of inventory we are carrying this year has been intentional given the tariff backdrop and the optimistic buy of seasonal merchandise and in demand product. These opportunistic purchases were key to our 160 basis point gross profit margin increase in Q3 and 270 basis increase in Q2. We expect our inventory position will also drive a margin increase in Q4 of over 100 basis points. We expect tariff related increases in our inventory to Moderate in fiscal 2026 assuming there is more tariff certainty. As Mark stated, we are planning for more dramatic shifts in inventory as Hugh Station becomes our dominant banner which is expected to free up 100 million of cash through inventory reduction over the next two years. This inventory reduction comes from Shoe Station's fundamentally different operating model which requires 20 to 25% less inventory per store compared to Carnival's model. When we get to 51% of our stores operating the Shoe Station model, we expect a 50 to 60 million dollars reduction in by the end of fiscal 2026. As we transition the inventory model, we expect some near term gross margin pressure from selling through legacy Carnival inventory partially offset by the lower cost opportunistic purchases we made in fiscal 2025. This inventory reduction will more than fully fund our rebander capital needs over the course of the year. Maintaining our debt free position at year end. We expect Rebanner capital expenditures between 25 and 35 million to be concentrated in Q1 and Q2 while inventory reductions may be more gradual and more focused on the back half of the year. The payoff comes in fiscal 2027 and accelerates into fiscal 2028. By the end of fiscal 2027 we expect to see the full 20 million in annual cost SA reduced dual brand complexity. The $400 million in working capital freed from inventory reduction, a return to annual comparable sales growth and EPS growth resumes in fiscal 2027 and expands significantly in fiscal 2028. We'll provide more specific fiscal 2026 and 2027 guidance in our March earnings call. With that, I'll turn the call back to Mark for closing remarks. Before we open up the call for questions.

Before we open for questions, let me put this quarter and this transformation in context. We're not at the beginning of this journey. We're at the acceleration point. Shoe Station was 10% of our company when we started this fiscal year. Today it's 34%. Eight months from now it will be 51%, the inflection point where this business returns to comparable sales growth. Now we're scaling Shoe Station across the fleet. This transformation unlocks significant value. $20 million in annual cost savings by the end of fiscal 2027. $100 million in working capital freed from inventory reductions. We're building a company to vision for sustained growth while funding this entire transformation. From a debt free balance sheet with over $100 million in cash, the performance gap between our two banners continues. Station outperformed Carnival by more than 10 percentage points every quarter this year. Station margins are 260 basis points higher than Q3 last year. Consumer preferences are shifting toward premium brands and quality over price. We're aligning our entire company with where the market is headed. Our board's approval to change the corporate name to Shoe Station Group reflects conviction about this path. We're investing through fiscal 2025, 2026 and into 2027 to capture gains that begin in 2027 and accelerate into 2028. This isn't a rebrand. It's a repositioning of this entire company around what's winning. Now I'd like to open up the call for questions.

At this time, I would like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, press Star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. Your first question comes from the line of Mitch Kametz with Seaport Research. Please go ahead.

Yes, thanks for taking my questions and welcome back.

Carrie.

You guys provided a lot of color around the rebannering and kind of the cadence of those impacts. I was hoping you might be able to boil it down a little bit more. So I think you said that for this year the drag on earnings is 68 to 70 cents. Can you say what the additional drag will be next year and then help us kind of think through what happens in 2027 and 28, how much of that you get back in 27 and by 28. Will all of that kind of flow back to the P and L And I've got a few follow ups.

Well, what we said Mitch, thank you for the welcome back. I appreciate it. It's good to be back with my friends. We said 25 to 30 million dollars in re-banner expenses are expected next year to kind of help you understand what those are going to be. And we said they're going to be front loaded because we're going to be doing approximately 70 stores in the, in the re-banner of those stores next year. The effect of that we will continue to have re-banner costs as we have store closing costs. The depreciation on the investments of this capex in the stores along with customer acquisition costs will continue as we go through those multiple years. However, an important point on that is that when we look at each store individually in the time frame that we make those investments, we're seeing we're expecting to get those monies back in a two to three year time frame in the profitability of those stores post conversion.

And when I think about Just from.

Like a core earnings standpoint, like pro forma earnings, if I were to try to adjust out some of these rebandering.

Expenses, is it fair to say that.

You'Ll like 2026, you'll see stronger earnings growth than 2025? Like if I strip these things out, I mean I kind of get there just because it sounds like you'll perform better from a comp standpoint. So I think that would go a long way towards better earnings growth next year. On the kind of. In terms of the growth rate this year versus, or I'm sorry, next year versus this year.

No, let me unpack a little bit of what I said. What we want next year we're going to be an investment year. So in, in the first half of the year, what we're saying is Shoe Carnival is still going to be the dominant brand. We expect it to be down mid single digits in sales and that's going to override any gains we get out of Shoe Station. So we expect sales to be down in the first half. Now once at back to school, once we hit that 51% threshold where shoe Station is, the Dom is, is the dominant brand, we expect to see a flat to slight positive sales gain. And in the second half, having said that, we also expect that as we transition our stores we might see some margin pressure longer term in the second half of the year from the rebanners as we have less Shoe Carnival stores to transition the inventory to. And so in 25 we had, we had significant amounts. So when we converted a store, if we had remaining shoe carnival stores, we could transfer those products to other stores. As we have fewer of the stores available, we may see some margin pressure on clearing out the non go forward Shoe Carnival inventory. We also expect to see significant pressure particularly in Q1 and Q2 on our SGA line because of the rebanner expenses. And we expect that SGA next year will be flat and possibly up. So while we're not in a position to give full guidance as we will In March on 26 numbers, you can see that that will be a down earnings year when you take into account lower sales, a little margin pressure from a clearance and then flat to up sga.

Got it. I was just trying to think about. It in terms of stripping out some of these sort of extraneous events, but a couple of last ones for me. One, I think it was mentioned that boots started slowly. I think that was more of a Q3 comment. Have you seen any improvement in the boot business early in the fourth quarter and kind of what is your outlook there? And then I have one last one.

Yes, hi Mitch, it's Tanya. And yes, boots did start a little bit slow but as we got our inventory in again just based on some delayed deliveries as we moved into October we saw nice double digit increases. So bodes well as we move into fourth quarter and we really saw it balanced across all categories. So tall shaft boots, booties, combat looks and fir doing very well.

Okay, that's helpful. And then last one for you Mark. On the shoe station side, you know you talked about how it's a higher income consumer and you know, more premium brand access and more service oriented stores. I'm curious, is there an opportunity to further elevate the assortment there? You know like Tanya just mentioned, you know, the fur boot business. I mean you guys, you sell Ugg in athletic but I'm sorry Hoka and athletic but you don't sell, you know, can you get or even across your athletic business. You know you sell VL courts but not sambas or you sell court visions not air force ones. I mean as as shoe station becomes a bigger player in the industry, is there an opportunity to you know, get even more elevated product versus just you know, the elevation that you see going from a carnival to a station. But there's more elevation opportunity within station going forward.

Hi Mitch. Absolutely. We believe that's maybe the most exciting part of the shoe station model and the key reason of why we're proceeding publicly now with our move to the Shoe Station group is so that Tanya and I can be working transparently long term with our partners to build out those new assortments and new brand launches and more premium topics. And so now we're having those great fully multi year discussions with the best of the best brands in the world and we're getting very enthusiastic partnership meetings of where we could go together. I think it's that core element of serving the middle income American household, that working everyday American consumer that values all of the activities that get life done. Absolutely. And Tanya's team's doing a great job. We'll see new assortments, new styles coming in. Q1.

All right, that's helpful. Thanks and good luck. Thank you.

Mitch.

Your next question comes from the line of Sam Poser with Williams Trading. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. All right, so I just would like to dig in to the comp that you talked about for Shoe Station. So as I understand it, at the end of third quarter last year I believe there were 42 shoe stations still stores and today there are 144. Is that correct?

The 144 is correct. I'll have to double check the the 42 is approximately right. What was the comp?

So the comp that you're comparing to is the comp versus Shoe Carnival. So the question I have is what were the comp on those 42 stores like on like for like Shoe Station. Last year Shoe Station this year. I know it's not a big picture but that is the cleanest view of, you know, how an existing Shoe Station store a year ago is compared to an existing Shoe Station store today.

Well Sam, we're not going to break down the banners into smaller components. Components. You know we've been breaking down the re banner stores to help you understand what happens when they transition from one to another. But we've got enough critical mass that in future quarters we're going to talk about the banners exclusively in the total numbers because they tell the right story right there that they tell you the information you need to know to understand what's the underlying fundamentals of the business. We think the exciting part of the business is the overall brand and in all honesty, within the full banner there's a range of outcomes. But the range of outcomes comes down to be a very positive number. Particularly when you look at the shoe carnival on a like for like you're seeing that they're continuing to decline but we're seeing the increases now. You know I hate to try to parse out the various pieces of it just for the fact that it'll. The noise may take away from the real story.

Okay. And then the inventory decrease. You talked a little bit about this on the call to bring the inventory down 50 to 60 million next year and the margin. So within the, within getting the inventory down 56 million, 50 to 60 million next year and then another 40 to 50 million in 27. There's different ways to do it. There's return. You can return goods to vendors you can take. You can have lower margins which would then increase your cogs and you can bring in less product. How should we think about the breakdown of that you talked a little bit about and how much gross margin and how much gross margin pressure should we anticipate in fiscal 26 in that what you brought up about not being able to shuffle inventory around as there are less carnival stores.

Hey Sam, it's Mark. Let me take that first. And Tim can build on it. I think aside from the new assortments will be opened up to a shoe station. The structural change to how we service the customers the area I'm probably most excited about and when we think of a carnival store as I like to describe it, you know they're towering displays that promotional products above a person's arm length unless you're Shaquille O'Neal Shoe station has a very structural difference that our vision and where we're progressing towards curated product lower profile, accessible the customer can see and easily navigate. And by nature of that significant change of where we're heading we have in that 20 to 25% reduction of units on hand in the stores when we get to bright that end point now that gets us along with selling through the tariff inventory at accretive margins that gets us the hundred million dollar reduction that Tanya and I and Carrie are talking about. We're going to get there quickly but we need to do it in conjunction with our partners through those means. You just mentioned Sam. So all of those things are going to occur that you just said the most strategic of it will be as Tanya and I work through our buys from back to school of this year forward we'll be buying with intentionality to meet where station is and where the rest of the company is going now that we're not in test and learn. Now Carrie touched on a point that's super important and we're not going to hold on to carnival product that's stranded past the season. So if we get past boot season for example this year we're having a good start. As Tanya said, we've got the right product but if you get to the end of boot season we're going to clear it. We're not going to carry it if it's not a go forward in the shoe station that'll have some margin pressure. It's the right thing to do. We're not going to hang on to that for a year and we've got the financial balance sheet to clear that out. So there'll be some margin pressure as we liquidate non go forward shoe carnival product from boot season. For example, for the 51% of the stores that will be shoe stationed by back to school there will be non go forward brand styles and assortments and same thing, we'll be liquidating that. I think we'll be able to do a much better job as we get into our formal guidance in March to unpack the specificity of that. But our intent today is to let the stakeholders understand that's where we're heading. Significant structural advantage, clearance of the tariff related product at full strong accretive margins and then liquidation of non go forward products. Because you and I have talked many times, Sam, why on earth would you want to carry that forward? We don't. So there will be some pressure. I don't care if you have any builds or Tanya, I agree with you.

Mark, that right now we need to get through the inventory further along. We'll know in March better how those stores, what their position of their inventories are on the stores we're going to be rebannering and therefore the potential for the inventory that might be clearance at this stage is too early. We need to see some sales through those products.

Okay, just to follow up, I mean so I'm backing in and again, I know it's not a clean number but you know, receipts in this year of around, you know, to get to, you know, slightly above, I'm a little bit higher but call it 770 million of receipts this year versus down from last year a bit. But next year to get to where you want to get to on my numbers means that your total receipts, even with margins off a little bit would probably have to be down in the inventory receipts probably in the range of $100 million. Is that. Am I thinking about that properly? That's probably a better Tanya question but am I thinking about that properly?

Well, let me start out with that and then Tanya can build on it. The idea you gotta remember that we have pre bought goods for the spring season. So the Opportunistic buys and the tariff product, we're gonna carry that type of product into the season of the spring. So therefore we have front loaded those purchases. So there will be a reduction in the overall. So directionally you're right about purchases.

Yeah.

Just to build on that, Sam, based on the pre tariff goods that we're bringing in, those are sitting in our current inventory today. And then based on our go forward model rebannering to Schuh station, our pairs have to come down, our pairs are coming down in that model and our AURs are going up. So the new model, our pairs have to come down significantly. So that's what's going to get us back to the inventory levels that we. Need to be at.

Okay, and then, but that, but, but you, but, but when you front load a lot of spring products and you're buying it well ahead of time to do it, I mean, you know, the consumer wants what the consumer wants and you're buying a lot of that stuff probably earlier and at discounts that may not be, you know, you might not be able to realize the margin. So how, I mean when we think about reducing, I guess let me just break it out. When you, when you say you're going to get, you know, conceptually to down 40 to 50, 50 to 50 million next year, what percent of that is less receipt receipts? What percent of that do you foresee as RTVs? And what percent of that do you think is just going to be higher cost of goods, a lower gross margin? I mean, how do you think about that conceptually?

Sam, it's me again. Sam's Mark. You're not thinking about it wrong in general terms. We're not ready to provide firm guidance. But thinking about receipts coming down next year in a range around $100 million is not the wrong way to think about it right now. We'll get tighter at Q1, but I don't want to dance it. You're thinking about it similar to how we're thinking about it. We'll get tighter as we fine tune some of those elements we've talked about, but spot on. Our model requires less receipts.

And then lastly. And then lastly. Thank you. And then lastly, if one of the things is that, you know, if you're the, the comps at Shoe Carnival have remained tough and are difficult and you're anticipating that they will remain that way, why not just, you know, if the consumer's not showing up right now, one, why not get more aggressive while there is strong demand during the holiday to, to Just get really clean. Especially in the 70 or so stores you're not gonna, you know, that are going to convert with that product that won't go forward in the stores, which I, I'm gathering it's about would I be right in the like the 50% range that between brands and styles that, that are the same or different for that matter, between Shoe Carnival and Shoe Station, be it from Nike, Skechers, Adidas and so on. While like with a Birkenstock you carry some of the same product but you get the big buckle at Shoe Station that doesn't go to Carnival, but then that'll go into Carnival, you know, so, but, but there's a good deal of it still a big chunk of product that won't go forward in.

It won't. Won't go forward.

So how aggressive are you being? And then in the plan to possibly create clearance stores, why not start to do that earlier to give yourself an out so you can, you know, turn some of these Carnival stores into clearance stores ahead of time to help yourself. Out of the liquid through the liquidation. Those are three great questions this mark. Again, let me answer them all. The first, it's not wrong to think 40 to 60% of the carnival inventory does not go forward into Shoe Station. There's variability, but the range you're talking about is the right way to think about it. Second, the 70 stores that are Shoe carnivals today and will be Shoe Stations, that product that does not go forward will be liquidated aggressively. Totally agree with your point. It will be gone. And that's what we were alluding to. You said it better than we may have communicated it. That's what we're alluding to when we say there will be margin pressure. In the past, when it was test and learn, it was easy to reallocate 10 stores and then it was still easy to do it when it's 25. Now that it's not test and learn and it's a full corporation rollout now we need to clear that product out because it makes no sense to move it around. We'll be doing that for those 70 stores, full stop. Sorry, you might have had a third or fourth point, but hopefully that answers your question. Sam.

Your next question comes from the line of Jim Charger with Maneth Krespy Hart. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. You previously talked about getting to 80%. Of stores rebannered by March of 2020, 27. Is that still the plan or is that pushed back?

Jim, Hi. It's Mark, what I try to say in the speech today is we will be well over 90% before we finish 2028, and we will surpass the critical point of 51% this summer. We're not putting any intermediary dates in there because we think it's far more important. important that we focus on delivering that experience, that inventory transformation we've just talked about and unlocking the $20 million synergies. As we get closer, we're going to learn a lot more and we can provide better guidance on those intermediary dates of 27 as we get much closer, we're going to stay really focused on the tight 2026. Here's what we know. We're doing 70. We'll get to 51, and we turn that pivotal quarter this year. We'll do more in 27, but we want to lock into 2028 versus an intermediary date. Now, that's not test and learn and it's a full company rollout. Okay, makes sense.

And then on the $20 million of. Savings, how much of that do you. Expect flows to the bottom line versus. Like, go towards reinvestment. And then how should we think about.

The timing of those savings? Yeah, as we get into 2028, we think it flows. We may choose to invest more in brand building for the corporation or other activities, but when you look at SGA this year versus SGA that year, excluding advertising expense, I would see it would flow in 2028. Now, Kerry did a nice job saying it's not going to manifest in 2026 because there's other investment costs here. But Kerry can build on that if you'd like.

That's the key right there. So 2026 is an investment year. We're going to be rebannering significant stores, and we'll just be starting to get the benefit of that $20 million in. In 2026. But it might mitigate some of the rebanner costs, but it's not going to offset them. Like Mark said, that once the rebanner costs are diminished in 28 and we have that full benefit of that $20 million savings, that's when we can start to realize it.

Great. Thank you.

That concludes our Q and A session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mark Worden for closing remarks.

Thank you all for joining us today. As we said, it's a pivotal moment for the company as we move towards Shoe Station Group becoming our new corporate name. Pending shareholder approval next summer, the majority of our fleet next summer, and we progress towards one brand unlocking significant value. I want to thank you all so much for your time and wish each of you and your families a happy Thanksgiving and holiday season ahead. I hope to see you in the markets or a shoe station store between now and then. Take care.

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.