Louisiana-Pacific reports flat sales; CEO departure signals strategic shift amidst challenging OSB market conditions.

OPERATOR - (00:00:00)

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the third quarter 2025 Louisiana Pacific Corporation earnings Conference Call. At this time all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speaker's presentation there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session you will need to press Star 11 on your telephone and you will then hear an automated message advising that your hand is raised to withdraw your question. Please press star 11 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Erin Hoald. Please go ahead.

Erin Hoald - Moderator - (00:01:32)

Thank you Operator and good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us to discuss LP's results for the third quarter of. 2025 as well as our updated outlook. For the full year. On the call this morning are Brad Southern, Alan Hockey and Jason Ringblum, who are LP's chief executive officer, Chief Financial Officer and President respectively. As always, after prepared remarks we will take a round of questions. During this morning's call we will refer to a presentation that has been posted to LP's Investor Relations webpage which is investor.lpcorp.com our 8-K filing, earnings press release and other materials are also available there. Finally, I will caution you that today's discussion contains forward looking statements and non. GAAP financial metrics as described on slides.

Brad Southern - Chief Executive Officer - (00:02:15)

Two and three of LP's earnings presentation. The appendix of the presentation also contains reconciliations that are further supplemented by this morning's AK filing. Rather than reading those materials, I will incorporate them herein by reference and with that I will turn the call over to Brad. Thanks Aaron Good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us. As usual, I'll discuss some highlights from the quarter before Alan shares more detail about our results and updated guidance. After that, Jason Allen and I will be happy to take your questions. As expected, cited volume in the third quarter was flat. This result in a softening market, especially compared to the difficult comp from last year, reinforces our confidence in Our ongoing share gains. 5% growth in siding sales revenue, driven primarily by price and a strong mix, exceeded our expectations and guidance. While we anticipated the normalization of demand in the shed component of our siding business, our Expert Finish pre finished siding product, primarily designed for R and R applications, saw sales volumes increase by 17% year over year. The April launch of our Expert Finish Naturals collection, which is a new line of nature inspired two tone colors, has contributed materially to a beneficial price mix effect. Expert finished accounted for 10% of overall siting volume and 17% of overall siting revenue in the quarter showing once again the power of SmartSite innovation to drive price volume growth and share gains. Inventory levels and sell through rates held steady through the quarter consistent with servicing seasonally normal demand levels. The only exception is expert finish with which remains in such high demand that we have implemented a managed order file until new capacity comes online early next year. Total sales in the quarter were down 8% compared to prior year and EBITDA of 82 million was also down significantly. The extended trough in OSB prices was the main drag on both metrics. While we obviously cannot control OSB prices, we can manage the OSB business effectively and our teams did that exceptionally well in the face of what remains a difficult market. The OSB business achieved 80% overall equipment effectiveness or Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE) in the quarter, up 2 points from last year. Increasing Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE) is never easy and it can be particularly challenging when we are also managing our capacity with discipline to balance supply and demand. I want to congratulate and thank everyone on the OSB operations team for who contributed to this impressive achievement. Our results are only possible because of our teams and the strong culture we have built. In the third quarter, LP was named one of the 50 best manufacturers in the United States by Industry Week, debuting on the list at number 24 and one of very few specially building products manufacturers to be recognized. We were also named by Newsweek as one of America's most admired workplaces. Finally, as you saw, I informed LP's board of directors of my intention to retire this coming February after more than 25 years of service. It has been the honor of my career to lead LP's 4300 person team. Ultimately, the job of a CEO is to build an engaged culture focused on safety, growth, innovation and execution to deliver value long after he or she is gone. When we launched LP's transformation strategy, I was daunted by the challenges we faced and the aggressive goals we've set for value creation. I am proud to say that we exceeded those goals. As LP's team and strategy have evolved, the magnitude of the opportunity before us has only grown and our confidence that we can continue to execute our strategy and achieve our ambitious goals has never been stronger. Jason Ringblum and I have been friends and colleagues for over 20 years. He was instrumental in the development and execution of LP's strategic transformation. He led LP's OSB and EWP businesses for five years and for the last three led LP's siding business before being named President. This perspective makes him uniquely suited to serve as LP's next CEO I have total confidence that with Jason and LP's future has never been brighter. And with that I will turn the call over to Alan. Thanks Brad.

Alan - (00:06:54)

Before discussing the results, I do want to take a moment to say that working for Brad has been a personal and professional highlight for me. And while they may be tough shoes to fill, I can think of no one better suited for this task than Jason. And with that Slide 7 of the presentation shows sidings results for the quarter as expected, the bulk of growth came from price average selling prices were up 5% with primed products up 3% and Expert Finish prices up 12%. And there were two mixed phenomena helping this along. First, as Brad mentioned, shed segment volumes normalized after a very strong first half, and as I'm sure you'll recall, strong shed volumes had been a drag on prices earlier in the year. So part of the 5% year over year price performance this quarter is simply the lower mix of shed relative to primed and expert finished products. The other mix factor was within expert finish itself where demand for LPs, two tone naturals and other higher priced pre finished products drove outsized year over year price gains. This mix shift is also evident in the year over year volume column which shows relatively flat volumes in total, but within which prime volumes were down 1% and expert finish volumes were up 17%. Selling and marketing investments, raw material inflation and other factors were fairly typical, but there are some moving pieces in the other column that they're mentioning. You may recall that the third quarter of last year saw an unusually high EBITDA margin, in part because of delays in maintenance projects and the resulting inventory build impacts which then reversed in the following quarter. So much of what you see in the $20 million of other costs in this waterfall is the non recurrence of those events from last year. Among them, inventory absorption is actually a double hit. That is we built inventory in the third quarter of last year which boosted ebitda, whereas this year we've reduced inventory which temporarily hurts ebitda. But in the long run it's all just timing. Viewing the second half of the year in total simplifies the year over year comparisons considerably. The $2 million tariff impact is the retaliatory tariffs LP had been paying to import, export finish into Canada. Those tariffs were rescinded in late August, so we are not currently incurring that expense. Also, as I'm sure you're aware, the Section 232 tariff announcements did not impact LPs, OSB or siding manufactured in Canada and imported into the US So other than minor tariff impacts on some of our raw materials, LP is currently bearing minimal tariff costs. The OSP chart on slide 8 tells a simple if bleak story of soft OSP prices and a challenging demand environment. OSB prices spent most of the quarter barely above variable cost driven by sluggish demand, particularly in the Southeast. Price realization fared somewhat better than expected due to a combination of the lag in contractual prices and structural solutions mix. And while the small non price variances mask it rather well, the OSB operations team played the hand they were dealt exceptionally well. Overall efficiency hit 80%, up two points from last year, and aggressive cost control helped the OSB segment outperform our algorithmic guidance. Now, superficially, this waterfall suggests that price is the only thing that matters in osb. Perhaps a more accurate reading is that if prices this low, everything matters. So I tip my hat to the OSB team for making the best of a very difficult market. Slide 9 shows cash flow for the quarter, which while straightforward very much continues to reinforce the value of LPs transformation. $82 million of EBITDA translated to $89 million of operating cash flow after minor puts and takes for working capital, taxes and interest. We invested $84 million in capex to support growth of expert finish and structural solutions, as well as to ensure that our plants continue to operate safely and efficiently. And after $19 million in dividends, we ended the quarter with $316 million in cash and over a billion dollars of liquidity, including our undrawn credit facility. Which brings us to guidance on Slide 10. Regrettably, OSB prices have scarcely moved since the last call, so our fourth quarter OSB guidance has only slightly improved the beneficial lag factors that helped the third quarter have dissipated given how long prices have remained in the doldrums. So all else equal, price realization in the fourth quarter will likely provide less of a tailwind than it did in the third. The resulting $45 million of EBITDA loss in the fourth quarter and breakeven for the year are as always, algorithmic projections of current prices and utilization for siding. We reaffirm our full year ebitda guidance of $430 million. However, for the fourth quarter the market has continued to weaken, so we anticipate slightly softer growth. We still expect a year of annual revenue increase in the coming quarter, but of about 3%, and this mostly from price. And much like the third quarter, we expect an outsized contribution from expert finish to both volume and price. We are therefore guiding to fourth quarter revenue of about $370 million and to EBITDA of about $82 million. Now, this slightly reduces our full year revenue growth rate from 9% to 8% for revenue of roughly 1.68 billion, while increasing our full year EBITDA margin guide to about 26%. Now, our South American business is also struggling with a sluggish economy and its results are not fully offsetting our corporate overhead at the moment. Therefore, total company EBITDA for the fourth quarter and full year are both expected to be about $5 million lower than the sum of the siding in OSB. Nonetheless, our expectation for full year total company EBITDA has actually risen by $20 million from $405 million three months ago to $425 million today. But we're also cutting our CAPEX guidance and there are two factors in play here. First, given the current emphasis on capacity management and cost discipline in osb, we are deferring even more projects in osb. In siting, we're balancing steadily improving OEE and initiatives to optimize LPs entire manufacturing portfolio against a backdrop of persistent market softness. As a result, the sense of urgency that motivated Halton's expansion as the fastest route to additional capacity is now somewhat diminished. And this makes our OSB mill in Maniwakee, Quebec, a viable candidate for conversion to siding, an option we are now exploring. So should we ultimately proceed down that path, it would most likely still provide additional siding capacity in advance of market demand and would likely do so at a larger scale and with greater capital efficiency. So while we weigh these options, we have paused any further MIL specific spending while continuing the longer lead time mill agnostic investments. And with that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

OPERATOR - (00:13:52)

Thank you. At this time, we will conduct the question and answer session as a reminder to ask a question, you will need to press Star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please stand by while we compile the Q and A roster. Our first question comes from the line of George Staphos with Bank of America securities. Go ahead. Your line is open.

George Staphos - Equity Analyst - (00:14:20)

Thanks so much. Appreciate all the details. Everyone and I know everyone will say congratulations Brad and Jason on the news and we wish you continued progress and success in the next chapters. I guess the first question I had, Alan, if you could just give us a bit more detail in terms of the potential shift from Holton to Manawake. What's behind it? How will we ultimately see it? One manifest itself versus the other in terms of operations and performance. And the second question I had maybe more for Jason and Brad. You know, there have obviously been some headlines in the last couple days about in the last couple weeks about marketing battles, some of your peers extending relationships with some of the building products distributors. To push product that maybe is a more competitive backdrop. Would you agree with that? Does that change the way you market or does that actually help you? Because your peers might have some other things that they're focused on relative to the side of business. Thanks. And I'll turn it over there.

Alan - (00:15:29)

Thank you, George. Thanks for the questions. Before I We will address your two questions, but before we get to that, I've just realized that I did misspeak slightly in my prepared remarks a moment ago when I was describing the impact of LP South America (LPSA) on the full year EBITDA guide in the fourth quarter. The difference between LP South America (LPSA) and corporate and allocated expenses is indeed $5 million for the full year. As you'll note from the published materials that went out this morning morning, the difference isn't 5 million, but it's 10 million. So just to be clear, the full year EBITDA is expected to be 420 million. Excuse me. So about $10 million lower than the sum of siding and OSP's breakeven, but still an increase on the previous guidance. Sorry, I've got a frog in my throat. Hold on. And now I'm going to turn over the question on Maniwakee to my friend and colleague Jason.

Jason Ringblum - President - (00:16:18)

Yeah, thanks for the question, George. I'll touch a little bit on milk conversion options. I guess when you think about it holistically, the beauty of our position here at LP is that we have multiple options. And I'll go through those just quickly. We've mentioned them on previous calls, but we have the opportunity to expand existing siding plants. So imagine a line parallel to an existing line at a current siding plant. Also have the opportunity to convert additional OSB facilities and aspen wood baskets. So Maniwakee, as Alan mentioned, is an option along with Peace Valley and then also the potential for a greenfield that would leverage sites that we own today in Wawa, Ontario or Cook, Minnesota. With that said, what I would say is the decision on the next mill will really come down to timing and capital efficiency, really coupled with the network optimization benefits that any given option has the potential to add. So we're still assessing all of those options that I mentioned. But as Alan stated, Maniwakee has surfaced to the top here more recently, just given the OSB market. Then the second part of your question just around the competitive dynamics, what I would say is generally we have not seen a whole lot of disruption within the channel. I mean, this is the time of year where new programs are being put in place. We're navigating RFPs with different customers. But right now we're focused on our strategy and really trying to minimize the noise and continue to focus on gaining share.

George Staphos - Equity Analyst - (00:18:13)

Hey Jason, just a quick one. I'll turn it over. Aside from the fiber basket for, for Maniwakee, what else makes it potentially rise to the surface more quickly?

Jason Ringblum - President - (00:18:26)

Yeah, so Maniwakee is a large OSB facility. So it's got the ability to produce 600 to 650 million feet of OSB, which translates to call it 400 million ish of siding. So just the scale and relative cost position of that facility, coupled with just the network optimization opportunities that it presents will all be factored into the analysis.

George Staphos - Equity Analyst - (00:18:57)

Okay, I see. Let me turn it over. I'll come back.

OPERATOR - (00:19:00)

Thank you.

Susan McLaury - Equity Analyst - (00:19:03)

Stand by for the next caller. The next call comes from the line of Susan McLaury with Goldman Sachs. Go ahead. Your line is open. Thank you. Good morning everyone. And let me add my congrats to both Brad and Jason as well. Looking forward to working with you, Susan. Thanks. Susan, the first question is talking about the pricing environment in siting. You've traditionally announced an increase late in or sometime in the fourth quarter for effective in early the following year. Just given the world that we're in and the varying dynamics around housing and the consumer, how are you thinking about pricing as we look to 2026?

Jason Ringblum - President - (00:19:48)

Thanks for your question, Susan. I'll take that one. So as of, I guess within the last seven to 10 days, we did announce a price increase very consistent with what you've seen us do in prior years. Along with that, we are managing our order intake to really minimize any sort of inventory build in the channel in advance of our price increase. So really those orders that are placed throughout December and in our January order file will come at the new price list. So nothing unusual here. What I would say is increases vary by product category and geography, but we are really targeting the net somewhere between 3 and 4% in 26.

Susan McLaury - Equity Analyst - (00:20:37)

Okay, thank you. And then turning to OSB, when you think about the environment that the builders are facing and the commentary we're hearing, especially from the big publics around pulling back on starts to end this year and then Even into early 2026, how are you thinking about balancing that capacity, the near term pressures that are there relative to the longer term? Outlook for housing and just adjusting the cost structure on a relative basis given those factors. Yeah.

Jason Ringblum - President - (00:21:10)

So demand for OSB has certainly been soft for the better part of the year. And as a result our focus has really been on matching capacity to demand. No different than what we've done in prior years where we've experienced soft markets. What I would say today is our utilization rate for OSB is in the high 60s, which essentially matches our committed volumes for the business. So what we felt is if we sell open market wood or bring cash wood to the market, largely it ends up in lower prices. So right now we're focused on really managing costs and optimizing our network relative to the demand we see today.

Susan McLaury - Equity Analyst - (00:22:03)

Okay, thanks for the color. Good luck with the quarter.

OPERATOR - (00:22:07)

Thank you. Thank you. One moment for our next question. The next question comes from the line of Catan Matoro with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Catan Matoro - Equity Analyst - (00:22:20)

Good morning. Thank you. Brad. I wanted to extend my congratulations as well. I mean it's been a remarkable transformation. This is a much different company today than what it used to be even 10 or 15 years back. So congratulations.

Brad Southern - Chief Executive Officer - (00:22:37)

Thank you.

Jason Ringblum - President - (00:22:37)

Kate and Jason, look forward to working with you. Maybe to start with, can you talk a little bit about. You mentioned sheds volumes normalizing in Q3. Can you talk about sort of what you saw there in Q3 and what's contemplated by way of volumes as you think about Q4? So I would say Keith, and I'll take that one. I mean throughout Q3, our order intake and sell through rates were pretty consistent. In fact, I would say they held up better than maybe we anticipated given the broader softening in the housing and repair remodel markets. And I think that's a testament really to our commercial team and our focus on innovating around the needs of our end user customers. Specifically expert finish, smooth siding, naturals, as Brad mentioned, being great product additions that have helped offset the weakness in some of the market segments we play in specific to shed. What I would say is yes, business has normalized in that segment, but we were up year over year. So we're very pleased with the progress we continue to make in that particular segment. And we see that continuing going into Q4 as well. Really where the softness resides is more in the new construction segment, particularly in the southern markets. And we see a little bit more resilience in repair remodel, especially in the northern markets where we have a more dominant share position.

Brad Southern - Chief Executive Officer - (00:24:27)

Jason, I'll just add to that. Sorry, Keaton, I'll just add that Historically, we've kind of seen a bit of seasonality in the shed business where our distributor partners and the shed builders tend to build some inventory in anticipation of spring and summer sales and that kind of backing off as we get through the summer. And I think what we saw seasonally in shed is pretty consistent with the historic trends that have driven our order file in the past.

Catan Matoro - Equity Analyst - (00:24:58)

Got it. That's helpful. And then just one more question. It seems like you are also sort. Of. In the way you are selling your siding products and your OSP products. It seems like there is some transition happening where you're trying to align both these products and sell it kind of more as a bundle. Can you talk to sort of what is driving that move and what kind of reception you're getting with your customers?

Jason Ringblum - President - (00:25:34)

I'll take that one, Keaton. Appreciate the question. So back in April we announced the integration of our OSB and siding businesses. And really the main reason for that was to better leverage our resources and better leverage the breadth of our product portfolio in the marketplace. So you're right, we are working on. Some bundling of programs to help us execute our segment strategies in all areas that we play in. But I would say we're still very much in the infancy stage of that process. We've made some good progress in the big builder segment, but it's still an area we're exploring largely.

Catan Matoro - Equity Analyst - (00:26:28)

Got it. That's helpful. I'll jump back in the queue. Good luck.

OPERATOR - (00:26:32)

Thank you.

Shawn Stewart - (00:26:34)

Thank you. One moment for our next question. The next question comes from the line of Shawn Stewart with TD Cohen. Go ahead. Your line is open. Thanks. Good morning everyone. I'll extend my congratulations to both Brad and Jason as well. I want to follow up on the Maniwakee pivot. Can you give us a sense of the timeline to at least start this project and when you think it might be producing siding product? And attached to that question, does the Section 232 determination which exempts OSB and siting from Canada, does that factor into the decision at all? And I guess broader perspectives, the determination on section 232 sort of left it open ended that the administration can consider changes to the assessment as time unfolds. I guess the short question is are you comfortable that this will be an extended extent or a permanent exemption for OSB inciting from Canada? I'll leave it there.

Aaron - (00:27:45)

Yeah. Sean, this is Aaron. I'll take the 232 component of that question. I don't think anybody's comfortable that policies. Are current in the current administration. But I will say that the decision to shift to Maniwaukee should we make it will be a long term decision based on our long term expectations about the evolving OSB and siding markets. The current situation for the 232 tariffs is that neither of those products is subject to a tariff importing it from. Canada into the United States. And perhaps a less understood component of. The 232 discussion is that the importation. Of some heavy equipment categories into the United States is less favorable than it. Is into Canada currently. So for example, if we were to acquire a press or other large equipment for a conversion of an OSB plant. In Canada, we would be able to. Import that equipment at a lower cost. Into Canada than into the US because of those tariffs. I would like to stress though that that would be a potential benefit, but it's not a reason. Right? Exactly. Yeah, the 232 issue is not the decision maker. It is noise that currently is a net benefit. But the long term reasons for Maniwaukee. Should we make that decision would be the fundamental market dynamics and the efficiencies.

Brad Southern - Chief Executive Officer - (00:29:07)

That that mill would bring. Sean, the process as you can tell as we've gone, try to be transparent on these calls and talk about the different options and some rise to the top and then some fade from the top. So it is certainly dynamic. But you know the evaluation that we do is financially driven, long term financial driven as Aaron said. And there are components specifically to tariffs or but you know, when you look at wood cost, you look at particularly network optimization. Maniwaki is in a really interesting place for us when you align it with our existing infrastructure, including what we're doing around expert finish growth. And so but as we continue to do the evaluation over the next several quarters we'll continue to evaluate all options in the face of a good strong financial analysis and then when we get ready to present to our board, that's when the rubber hits the road around crystallizing around one facility and being able to explain from a return standpoint why that one was chosen. So more to come on that. But we did think it was worth mentioning Maniwakee as a prime candidate or perhaps the prime candidate right now given that we haven't talked about that much in the past.

Shawn Stewart - (00:30:34)

Understood. And maybe just one follow up there. Brad. Part of this reordering of the options is the extent to which OSB markets have unraveled here the last several months. I mean you position this as it's a long term decision based on optimization of the fiber basket, the portfolio you have. Is there any read through on you view this OSB downturn as potentially extended beyond what we would normally see, and you're considering Maniwakee in that context as well. This could be a longer trough than we're accustomed to seeing for osb.

Brad Southern - Chief Executive Officer - (00:31:16)

We were not intending to signal that at all. Certainly the near term outlook for OSB is pretty abysmal, but we believe in the business in the long term. Really what put this one up was, as Jason mentioned or I mentioned in the prepared remarks, the timing. We were leaning on Holton because we felt that we could get there faster with a conversion. And so really it's the overall softening in the housing outlook overall gave us, say, another year of capacity in our existing network, which allowed us to take a step back and say, you know, if we're not as in much of a hurry as we thought we were in six months ago, what are other options? And that's really when we started, you know, focusing in on Mandy. It was not OSB related that drove.

OPERATOR - (00:32:21)

Stand by, please. I believe your mic just went out for a minute. Standby. Sean, are you still able to hear me? Can you hear them?

Shawn Stewart - (00:32:59)

I cannot, no.

OPERATOR - (00:33:01)

Okay, great. I just wanted to double check. I'm going to have them dial back in. If everyone could please stand by. Please stand by for a moment while we get everyone reconnected.

Jill - (00:33:40)

Jill, can you hear us now? Oh, yes, we can. Great. Can hear you. And Sean, you're still there?

Shawn Stewart - (00:33:46)

I am. I'm all good, guys. You can go on to the next.

Brad Southern - Chief Executive Officer - (00:33:51)

There you go. Sean, did you hear it? I mean, it was such a great. It's probably the best answer of my CEO career and I got cut off. In the middle of it.

Shawn Stewart - (00:33:59)

You're leaving on a high note? I think I got the gist of of it.

Brad Southern - Chief Executive Officer - (00:34:02)

All. Good, guys.

Shawn Stewart - (00:34:05)

Thanks, Shawn.

OPERATOR - (00:34:07)

Thank you. Stand by for our next question, please. The next question comes from the line of Mark Weintraub with Seaport Research Partners. Please go ahead.

Mark Weintraub - Equity Analyst - (00:34:18)

I don't know, Brad. I don't know if I should ask any more questions after that. High note, but congrats to all. Of course. So maybe just a little bit more on the thinking on Maniwaki Halton. So, I mean, your volumes this year aren't that different from what you were expecting. So, I mean, it seems to suggest that you're taking a little bit more of a cautious perspective on next year. And obviously it's pretty early. Maybe help us think that through a little bit. And when you say several quarters, does that mean you were kind of thinking it's like you don't need it for close to a year later than what you would have initially anticipated. Wanting the volume up.

Brad Southern - Chief Executive Officer - (00:35:07)

Marcus, really the key driver is we were forecasting internally improving housing starts at a pace higher than the current forecast is. And so when we were looking at, I don't know, the industry adding 75,000 to 100,000 new starts each year, year over year over year, that got us on a path of sooner rather than later on this conversion. But as we've looked at the most recent starts forecast that we follow, it seems pretty flat or low single digit growth year over year. So that difference in outlook for housing, you know, has given us some degrees of freedom on timing for it. I will say, you know, it's been really nice to see Segola operating at the level that it's operating at now, which has provided a good bit of near term headroom on that. And so. But I do feel like the, I mean I know that the reason we were able to take a breath on expediting a meal conversion as Holton, as we just looked at the housing forecast that folks are putting out there and as we aligned with that, we felt like we had another year of time to make a conversion versus being very rushed. And you know, rushed caused us to go to Holton because it would be the quickest, but it also rushed would have significantly increased the capital expense too. So I think we're in a good place to where we still got headroom that we need if housing was to get stronger than forecasted, which we certainly hope happens. But we feel really good about having options other than Holton, which will be a little more capital efficient for us. Super.

Mark Weintraub - Equity Analyst - (00:37:01)

And maybe could you expand a little bit on that in terms of capital efficiency, recognizing you're still in the evaluation stage, but order of magnitude how much capital might be required for a mannawake conversion. And also does this mean that your cap spend in 2026 is actually going to be more reduced than maybe what some of us would have been thinking previous?

Alan - (00:37:35)

Great questions, Mark. None of which we're really in a position to answer with sufficient reliability or confidence yet. We'll deliver more on this topic on our full year earnings call in February.

Mark Weintraub - Equity Analyst - (00:37:48)

Fair enough.

Alan - (00:37:50)

Sorry, we just not a business joint.

Mark Weintraub - Equity Analyst - (00:37:52)

Understood. And then just last if I could. So with the sheds business, obviously it had been quite weak last year, much stronger this year. Can you give us any sense as to like where the sheds business and I recognize even you guys don't have perfect visibility on this. But your best estimate is where that business is now relative to kind of trend line or did we have some catch up this year so that there is downside risk to next year in a normal environment? Or is it more that it was just so bad last year? This really strong growth just got us back up to what you'd consider to be kind of a typical year.

Jason Ringblum - President - (00:38:40)

Yeah, I'll take that one. So what I'd say there was a fair amount of pull forward demand and shed during COVID So our business was very strong those years and and to some extent we supported that segment to a higher degree than others while we were on a managed order file. That pullback that we felt in late 23:24 I think was a result of that. We've seen the shed business return back to normal levels, if not maybe a hair better. A lot of the fabricators that we talk to are saying their business is up a couple points relative to kind of a normal rate. So we feel good about that business and it's been very consistent for us through the years and feel good about opportunities we have to improve our share position there as well.

Mark Weintraub - Equity Analyst - (00:39:37)

Thanks so much and congrats both again. Thank you. Thanks Mark.

Kurt Yinger - Equity Analyst - (00:39:44)

One moment for our next question. The next question comes from the line of Kurt Yinger with DA Davidson. Go ahead. Your line's open. Great. Thanks and congrats, Jason and Brett. I just wanted to go back to some of the comments just around the fourth quarter siding volumes. Can you just talk about what you're hearing from your customers in terms of maybe a little bit of demand degradation and then how perhaps managing inventory levels and the price increase factored in, if at all?

Jason Ringblum - President - (00:40:25)

Yes, thanks, Kurt. I guess I said this earlier, but I mean the process is very consistent with what we've done in prior years. We look at historical purchases, kind of where demand is trending and then come up with allocations for our distributor partners and then obviously work with them closely through that process. If they're communicating that they're going to short a customer on the other end, by no means will we hold them to that allocation specifically. So it is pretty fluid in nature with the end goal being not to increase channel inventories as we go into the new year and work through a price increase. So so far I think that's been well received and you know, there are customers that are certainly asking for more, but that's something that we closely manage on a week to week basis.

Kurt Yinger - Equity Analyst - (00:41:29)

Okay, that's helpful. And then just looking forward to 2026 a little bit. I mean what areas of the siding portfolio do you maybe have the highest conviction or visibility to at this stage in terms of delivering kind of above market growth and continuing the momentum? And separately, from a marketing or channel standpoint, what are you most focused on there in terms of strengthening your position with different channel partners and whatnot? Thank you.

Jason Ringblum - President - (00:42:10)

Kurt. I'll take that one as well. What I would say is we've got very focused segment strategies for new construction, repair, remodel and then off site, which includes shed and manufactured housing. Housing segment. And those are three segments that we will be relentlessly focused on improving our share position in. And we're investing resources in all three pretty equally, maybe a little bit heavier in repair, remodel. But we feel like there's an opportunity to continue to take a half point to a point of share of the addressable market on an annual basis as we think about the future.

OPERATOR - (00:43:04)

Okay, stand by for our next question please. The next question comes from the line of Adam Baumgarten with Vertical Research Partners. Please go ahead.

Adam Baumgarten - Equity Analyst - (00:43:17)

Hey guys, thanks for taking my question. Just on Expert Finish, can you kind of update us on where margins are there, especially with the managed order file. Currently.

Alan - (00:43:29)

Margins still have, they're good but they still have a long way to go under the current circumstances. So again I still see both outsized. We've certainly had outsized price increases on Expert Finish and we're making progress on the cost side. So I think the future is bright for continued margin increase but they're still lagging fundamentally our primed offering. So there's nothing but opportunity there.

Adam Baumgarten - Equity Analyst - (00:44:00)

Okay, great. Thanks guys.

OPERATOR - (00:44:06)

Thank you. Our last call comes from the line of Stephen Ramsey. Stephen's with Thompson Research Group. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Hi, this is Kathryn Thompson and for Stephen today, thank you for including me in the Q and A today. Answered, you know, many, many good questions but wanted to follow up just on a few on expert finish and have been taking some share gains. But I suppose for the quarter and as you think about the year, can you parse out the drivers between channel versus winning shelf space and end market demand? And then against the second part of this is against a pretty challenging RNR market. How sustainable do you feel these market share gains are on a go forward basis?

Jason Ringblum - President - (00:45:05)

I'll take that one, Catherine. So we're very pleased with the growth that we've seen an expert finish after getting into the pre finish business. I think it was back in 2020. We are on a managed order file right now but we have incremental capacity coming online at the end of Q1, early Q2 next year in the neighborhood of 50 to 70 million feet. We believe that we got a very strong value prop with our expert finish line and have only added to that with the naturals collection that was launched in April and that repair remodel contractors really enjoy using that product. So we think the demand is sticky. Obviously you need to get the contractor to get placement in the channel with our dealer partners. And that's really our focus going forward, is getting downstream as much as possible to pull that demand through for our dealer partners.

Brad Southern - Chief Executive Officer - (00:46:07)

Kathryn, I'll just add to Jason's answer that keep in mind that our market share in that segment is tiny relative to the opportunity. And as our product gets accepted, as Jason mentioned, as contractors get to use, as you mentioned, as we secure shelf space with the one step distribution network, there's just a ton of upside in our ability to continue to grow that expert finish line and have a much higher market share of a large repair and remodel market.

Catherine Thompson - (00:46:40)

And do you need to step up marketing expenses next year to keep being that share gainer or are there other ways beyond to increase stickiness?

Brad Southern - Chief Executive Officer - (00:46:54)

Marketing is a big component. It's in home selling to consumers primarily. And so as a, you know, if you parse our sales and marketing budget, particularly the marketing budget, it is skewed toward support of the repair and remodel segment more than any other segment by a pretty large margin. But I think what you'll see next year in our budgeting will be consistent or with our guidance will be consistent with the kind of spend we've had historically, especially if you look at percent of revenue or anything like that.

Catherine Thompson - (00:47:29)

And since you brought up distribution, given the ongoing changes and the distribution landscape in the U.S. are you seeing any type of behavior changes for you as a supplier to the distribution market, given some of the fundamental changes in distribution?

Brad Southern - Chief Executive Officer - (00:47:53)

Yeah, I would say right now we're very pleased with the partners we have from a two step distribution perspective and that those relationships are on very solid footing and we look forward to continuing to work with our partners. But no real significant disruption now.

Catherine Thompson - (00:48:17)

Okay, great. Thanks so much and best of luck and congratulations.

OPERATOR - (00:48:24)

Thank you, Katherine.

Mike Rocksland - Equity Analyst - (00:48:27)

One moment please. One additional question comes from the line of Mike Rocksland with Tristram Securities. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Yeah, thanks Brad, Alan, Jason and Aaron for taking my questions and I'll just echo what everybody else has said. Brad, congrats on your upcoming retirement. Well deserved. And Jason, congrats on the new role A lot of my questions have been addressed, but I just wanted to ask if you could give some more color around volume growth by end market in terms of single family R and R and sheds and manufactured housing in 3Q. And how should we think about citing volume growth as we look into 2026? I know it was asked recently, but just trying to get a sense whether you think volumes will be flat slightly up next year versus low single digits. Thanks.

Jason Ringblum - President - (00:49:20)

So I'll touch on the first part of the question. Just looking at Q3 versus prior year by segment. As I mentioned earlier, even though shed volume came off slightly versus Q2, it was up year over year more than the other two segments. Repair remodel was second strongest as evidenced by our performance in our expert finish business or line and then single family. I think it was a mixed bag. We had decent volume in some of our core markets, but in the southern markets that are dominated a little bit more by the big builder and are stressed by some affordability challenges and just consumer confidence in general, that was our weakest segment in the quarter.

Alan - (00:50:25)

I'm going to address the second question briefly. I think it's too early for us to make a sort of convincing call on 2026. As you know, we have pretty good visibility within a quarter and when we get to February, what we see within the first quarter behavior will of course color our view of 2026, at which point we'll provide some full year guidance.

Mike Rocksland - Equity Analyst - (00:50:49)

Understood. And then just one quick follow up. If you see housing rebound more quickly next year than you're now expecting, what levers do you have available to meet that increased size now that you're pushing out some of your capital projects?

Alan - (00:51:05)

Plenty of capacity, we can add shifts in existing facilities. So we will have no problem responding to almost any imaginable demand scenario over the next couple years in either of our businesses or South America.

Mike Rocksland - Equity Analyst - (00:51:26)

Got it guys. Thank you.

OPERATOR - (00:51:29)

Thank you. This does conclude the question and answer session. I would now like to turn the call back to Erin for closing remarks.

Erin Hoald - Moderator - (00:51:39)

Okay, thank you everybody for joining the call. We'll look forward to continuing the conversation and follow up calls later today and conferences throughout the quarter. Thank you very much.

OPERATOR - (00:51:49)

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.