Simpson Manufacturing Co reports strong Q3 results with $623.5 million in sales and strategic cost initiatives for future growth amidst market headwinds.

OPERATOR - (00:02:33)

Greetings and welcome to Simpson Manufacturing Co third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operating assistance, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Kim Orlando of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

Kim Orlando - Investor Relations - (00:02:58)

Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen and welcome to Simpson Manufacturing Company's third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Any statements made on this call that are not statements of historical fact are forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on certain estimates and expectations and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. Actual future results may vary materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. We encourage you to read the risks described in the Company's public filings and reports which are available on the SEC's or the company's corporate website. Except to the extent required by applicable securities laws, we undertake no obligation to update or publicly revise any of the forward-looking statements that we make here today, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. On this call we will also refer to non-GAAP measures such as adjusted ebitda, which is reconciled to the most comparable GAAP measure of net income in the Company's earnings press release. Please note that the earnings press release was issued today at approximately 4:15pm Eastern Time. The earnings press release is available on the Investor Relations page of the company's website at ir.simpsonmfg.com today's call is being webcast and a replay will also be available on the investor relations page of the Company's website. Now I would like to turn the conference over to Mike Oloski, Simpson's President and Chief Executive Officer.

Mike Oloski - President and Chief Executive Officer - (00:04:36)

Thanks Kim. Good afternoon everyone and thank you for joining today's call. I'm joined by Matt Dunn, our Chief Financial Officer. Today I'll share highlights from our third quarter performance, key developments across our end markets and progress on our strategic initiatives. Matt will then walk through the financials and our updated fiscal 2025 outlook. We are pleased to report net sales of $623.5 million, a 6.2% increase year over year, primarily driven by our June 2 price increase and a positive impact from foreign exchange. This growth reflects the ability of our business model to navigate a challenging macroeconomic environment even as residential housing markets in the US And Europe remain soft. In North America, net sales rose to $483.6 million, up 4.8% from the prior year. This includes an estimated $30 million contribution from our June price increase. North American volumes were modestly lower. This reflects broader market conditions, including significantly lower housing starts both in the southern and western regions of the United States, where we have more content per unit as a result of stronger building codes. As a reminder, our volume calculations exclude contributions from software, services and equipment. While comparative data versus US housing starts was unavailable for Q3 due to the government shutdown, we remain confident in our ability to outperform the market over the long term. Our focus on innovation, customer service and operational excellence continues to drive solid results, highlighting some developments from our key end markets. Our volume performance was mixed, though we're seeing positive momentum across several key areas. The OEM business delivered high single digit volume growth led by Mass Timber solutions and new product introductions. Direct sales to manufacturers of material handling and data center equipment also posted solid gains. In the component manufacturer business, we achieved low single digit volume growth supported by our new customer wins and expanded product offerings. We recently launched CS Producer™. It's our first cloud based truss production management software. CS Producer™ gives floor and roof truss manufacturers powerful ways to schedule and manage daily operations. It's also a major milestone in our software roadmap and received enthusiastic feedback at the Building Component Manufacturers Conference. In our national retail business, volume was slightly down while point of sale performance improved mid single digits. We saw continued strength in outdoor accents, fastener solutions, e-commerce and Pro initiatives with our two largest retail partners. Expanded shelf space and new products introduced last year are contributing positively. In the residential business, volumes declined slightly. However, we secured new business through dealer conversions and growth in outdoor living solutions. Multifamily demand remains a bright spot, especially in the Northwest, Northeast and Canada. In the commercial business, volumes declined mid single digits reflecting an overall weak commercial market. But we saw growth in cold formed steel connectors and adhesive anchor lines driven by strong field engagement and specification efforts. I'm also proud to highlight that our commitment to customer service was recognized with two supplier awards from Do it Best in SouthernCarlson during the third quarter. In Europe, net sales reached $134.4 million, up 10.9% year over year or a solid 4.3% on a local currency basis. Growth was driven by increased volumes resulting in performance that outpaced the market. As we look ahead, we are undertaking proactive strategic cost savings initiatives to align our operations with evolving market demand and position the company for long term success. This is in response to a downturn in the housing market that started in 2022. While these decisions are not easy, we are committed to supporting our team and ensuring we do not compromise on what we're known for, which is delivering best in class service to our customers. These actions are designed to drive efficiencies, preserve profitability and unlock future growth opportunities in what's expected to be a continued soft market. As a result of these actions, we expect to generate annualized cost savings of at least $30 million with one time charges of approximately $9 million to $12 million that will be realized in fiscal 2025. We remain committed to supporting our team and delivering exceptional customer service. Matt will provide further detail on the financial impact shortly. Turning to consolidated gross margin which was 46.4% and slightly below last year. This reflects higher input costs including tariffs and labor costs. Our June price increase helped partially offset rising costs and we've taken further pricing actions effective October 15th to address additional tariffs announced subsequent to our prior price increase. These increases are expected to contribute approximately $100 million in annualized sales. We expect continued deceleration in our gross margins as the impact of tariffs flow through our inventory. Third quarter operating margin was 22.6% up 130 basis points year over year, including a $12.9 million gain from the sale of our Gallatin, Tennessee facility and approximately $3 million in restructuring costs. Adjusted EBITDA total $155.3 million, a 4.5% increase year over year. Next, I'd like to highlight progress on our financial ambitions. First, continuing above market volume growth relative to US housing starts. We're updating our 2025 outlook for US housing starts. We now expect them to decline mid single digits compared to 2024. In Europe, housing starts in 2025 are expected to remain relatively consistent with 2024. We remain focused on growing above the market. Second, maintaining an operating income margin at or above 20%. Considering the cost savings initiatives we are taking in a growing market, we remain confident in our ability to deliver 20 plus percent operating margins and third, as a growth focused company with industry leading margins, we believe we can consistently drive EPS growth ahead of net sales growth. Year to date, EPS has increased approximately 510 basis points above revenue growth, demonstrating our ability to deliver shareholder value. In summary, we delivered solid results in a challenging housing environment. Our pricing actions, cost savings initiatives and market share gains are positioning us for continued success. We're optimistic about the future and believe in our ability to drive growth, improve profitability and capitalize on a market recovery. Thank you to our incredible team for their dedication, resilience and relentless customer focus. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Matt, who will discuss our financial results and outlook in greater detail.

Matt Dunn - Chief Financial Officer - (00:12:20)

Good afternoon everyone. Thank you for joining us on our earnings call today. Before I begin, I'd like to mention that unless otherwise stated, all financial measures discussed in my prepared remarks refer to the third quarter of 2025 and all comparisons will be year over year comparisons versus the third quarter of 2024 now turning to our results, our consolidated net sales increased 6.2% year over year to $623.5 million. Within the North America segment, net sales increased 4.8% to $483.6 million. In Europe, net sales increased 10.9% to $134.4 million due to increased sales volumes as well as the positive effect of approximately $8.1 million in foreign currency. Translation Globally, wood construction product sales were up 5% and concrete construction product sales were up 12.8%. Consolidated gross profit increased 5.2% to $289.3 million, resulting in a gross margin of 46.4%, down 40 basis points from the third quarter of 2024. On a segment basis, our gross margin in North America was 49%, slightly lower than the 49.5% reported in the prior year due to factory and overhead as well as higher warehouse costs. As a percentage of net sales, our gross margin in Europe increased to 37.9% from 36.6% primarily due to lower material costs as a percentage of net sales. From a product perspective, our third quarter gross margin was 46.2% for wood products compared to 46.3% in the prior year period. For concrete products, gross margin was 48% compared to 49.7% a year ago, with the reduction partly due to increased tariffs on imports. Now turning to expenses while SG&A (Selling, General and Administrative) headcount is down over 4% year over year, total Q3 operating expenses increased 9% to $162.3 million, primarily driven by higher variable compensation on improved profitability. Severance costs related to our strategic cost savings initiatives, foreign exchange and employee health care costs as a percentage of net sales, Q3 operating expenses were 26% compared to 25.4% last year. Our third quarter operating expenses included approximately $3 million in severance related costs associated with our strategic cost savings initiatives, which we anticipate will deliver annualized cost savings of at least $30 million. To further detail our third quarter SGA our research and development and engineering expenses increased by 1.2% to $20.8 million. Selling expenses increased by 5.9% to $56.1 million primarily due to higher variable compensation and commissions, personnel and severance costs related to our strategic cost savings initiatives partially offset by a decrease in travel related costs. On a segment basis, selling expenses in North America were up 6.8% and in Europe they were up 2.8%. General and administrative expenses increased by 13.3% to $85.4 million due to increases in variable compensation, software costs including development for our component manufacturing business as well as negative foreign exchange effect. As a result, our third quarter consolidated income from operations totaled $140.7 million, an increase of 12.7% from $124.9 million. Our consolidated operating income margin was 22.6% up from 21.3% last year. Income from operations included a $12.9 million gain on the sale of the existing Gallatin, Tennessee facility. In North America, income from operations increased 1.6% to $125.2 million driven by an increase in gross profit partly offset by higher variable incentive compensation, personnel costs, severance costs related to our strategic cost savings initiatives, and software related costs. Our third quarter operating income margin in North America was 25.9% compared to 26.7% last year. In Europe, income from operations increased 27.6% to $16.1 million due to an increase in gross profit partly offset by increases in operating expenses due to the negative effect of approximately $2.1 million in currency translation. Our third quarter operating income margin in Europe was 12% compared to 10.4% last year. Our third quarter effective tax rate was 25.3%, approximately 80 basis points below the prior year period. Accordingly, net income totaled $107.4 million or $2.58 per fully diluted share compared to $93.5 million or $2.21 per fully diluted share. Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $155.3 million, an increase of 4.5% resulting in a margin of 24.9%. Now, turning to our balance sheet and cash flow, our balance sheet remained healthy with cash and cash equivalents totaling $297.3 million at September 30, 2025, up $106.9 million from June 30, 2025. Our debt balance was approximately $369.2 million net of capitalized finance cost and our net debt position was $71.9 million. We have $450 million remaining available for borrowing on our primary line of credit. Our inventory position as of September 30, 2025 was $591.9 million, which was up $5.3 million compared to June 30, 2025, with lower pounds of inventory on hand. Our disciplined approach to capital allocation keeps our investments aligned with evolving market conditions and focus on driving sustainable value. We generated strong cash flow from operations of $169.5 million for the third quarter. This enabled us to invest $35.9 million for capital expenditures, pay $12.1 million in dividends to our stockholders, and pay down $5.6 million of our term loan. In addition, we repurchased 158,865 shares common stock at an average price of $188.84 per share, for a total of $30 million. On October 23rd, our board amended our share repurchase program authorizing an additional $20 million of our common stock for repurchases through year end, resulting in $30 million remaining under our authorization. In addition, the Board authorized a new share repurchase program for 2026 to repurchase up to $150 million worth of our shares through year end 2026. This reflects our confidence in the long term prospects of the business and our commitment to returning capital to shareholders. In regard to our investments, our new Gallatin, Tennessee facility opened during the third quarter. As a reminder, this facility will play a critical role in helping to support growth and enhance operational efficiency across our fast Next, I'll turn to our 2025 financial outlook based on business trends and conditions. As of today, October 27th, we are updating our guidance for the full year ending December 31, 2025 as follows. We expect our operating margins to now be in the range of 19 to 20%. Additional key assumptions include our expectation for U.S. housing starts to be down in the mid single digit range from 2024 levels, a slightly lower overall gross margin based on the addition of new facilities as well as the recently imposed tariffs, which we anticipate will be partly offset by the price increases that went into effect on June 2 and October 15. Our outlook also assumes non recurring severance costs from our strategic cost savings initiatives in North America and Europe of approximately 9 to $12 million. And finally, our margin guidance includes the benefit of $12.9 million from the gain on the sale of our existing Gallatin, Tennessee property. Next interest expense on our term loan, which had borrowings of $369.2 million as of September 30, 2025 is expected to be approximately $5 million. The benefits from interest rate and cross currency swaps and interest income on our cash and money markets are expected to substantially offset the expense. Our effective tax rate is estimated to be in the range of 25.5% to 26.5%, including both federal and state income tax rates based on current laws. And finally, our capital expenditures outlook is expected to be in the range of 150 million to 160 million, which includes approximately 75 to 80 million dollars for the completion of both the Columbus facility expansion and and the recently opened Gallatin Fastener facility. In summary, despite a challenging market backdrop, we delivered solid third quarter results and continued to execute with discipline. Our pricing actions helped offset rising costs from tariffs, helping our margins remain resilient even as we navigate cost headwinds. While SG&A (Selling, General and Administrative) was elevated this quarter, the strategic cost savings initiatives we implemented in late September and early October will drive meaningful efficiencies and support future earnings growth. Gains on asset sales also contributed positively to operating income and eps. Looking ahead, we remain focused on disciplined capital deployment and returning value to stockholders through our expanded share repurchase authorization and our commitment to return at least 35% of our free cash flow. With that, I will now turn the call over to the operator to begin the Q and A session.

OPERATOR - (00:22:43)

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two to remove yourself from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up the handset before pressing the Star keys. One moment, please. While we poll for questions, our first question comes from the line of Dan Moore with CJS Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Dan Moore - Equity Analyst - (00:23:20)

Thank you. Good afternoon, Mike and Matt. Thanks for all the color and thanks for taking the questions. Hey Dan, you started with 6% revenue growth in Q3. Certainly it's very solid in light of the current housing environment. Obviously it was mostly pricing strategic action. Just give us a flavor for kind of the organic volume declines in North America. And what did volume growth look like in Europe?

Mike Oloski - President and Chief Executive Officer - (00:23:51)

Sure.

Matt Dunn - Chief Financial Officer - (00:23:52)

Dan, this is Matt. Let's break it down on a global basis first. So the 6.2% sales growth for the quarter, a little more than 5 points of that was from pricing, a little more than one point from foreign exchange. Less than half a point of help from Acquisitions we acquired in 2024 that had not anniversary yet and then volume was down one point. So that's on a global basis. If you look at volume on a North America basis in the quarter.

Mike Oloski - President and Chief Executive Officer - (00:24:24)

Yeah, I think, Dan, year to date volume growth is down 1.4% versus prior year.

Matt Dunn - Chief Financial Officer - (00:24:30)

Yeah, North America.

Dan Moore - Equity Analyst - (00:24:31)

North America, got it. That's really helpful. Obviously, just sticking with kind of the macro. Housing demand proven to be more tepid this year than perhaps we'd hoped or expected when we started the year. You know, rental rates coming down, affordability remaining challenged. You're taking some meaningful cost actions and that'll be my follow up question. But do you see any catalysts that could kind of stem the tide and get us trajectory next year, Do you foresee continued declines in the housing market and that's why you're taking the actions? I know it's early to be Crystal Balling 26, but just kind of beyond the next. Where do you see things going.

Mike Oloski - President and Chief Executive Officer - (00:25:18)

Dan, when we look at this year, again probably down mid single digits. And I think that's a bit of a surprise for a lot of people. When we were coming into the year, we were thinking it was going to be up low single digits and it does look like it's certainly decelerating the second half of the year. When we look at all of the various market forecasts not getting specific to market, most of them are coming in on the flat range. And when I talk with our customers, affordability is certainly an issue. But a lot of the bigger builders are already subsidizing mortgage rates,. So a lot of people that are going to these big production builders are already getting a 4% loan. So certainly lower interest rates will help the small to medium sized builders that really can't subsidize things the way the bigger builders are. But I guess we're focusing on the things within our scope of control. We're absolutely committed to being in that 20% operating income level. And that's why we had to make the really difficult decision to make these strategic cost savings initiatives and get our cost structure in line with what we think is going to be a little bit more of an extended slow market.

Matt Dunn - Chief Financial Officer - (00:26:26)

Yeah, Dan, I would just add, you know, as Mike said, tough decisions, looking at a head towards what looks like it's going to be a flattish market next year. We took these actions to stay on track against our financial ambitions. We believe that they'll deliver at least $30 million of annualized cost savings in 2026, really through a combination of workforce reduction and portfolio management. And then as we mentioned on the call, we expect 9 to $12 million of one time costs during 2025, of which 3 million are already in the Q3 results. But the full 9 to 12 is included in our updated outlook for the year.

Dan Moore - Equity Analyst - (00:27:05)

Really helpful. And then, yeah, I think you just touched on it, but I was going to dig a little deeper into the targeted cost savings. Any kind of general breakdown between North America and Europe. And then it sounds like you've already incurred 3 million. The 9 to 12 is not incremental to that, but I assume the balance is likely going to be in Q4. Is that the right way to think about it from a modeling perspective?

Matt Dunn - Chief Financial Officer - (00:27:33)

Let's take the second part first. Yeah, from a modeling perspective, you could assume that 6 to 9 is going to come in Q4 and then the 3 we already had in Q3 would get you to that 9 to 12 in terms of breakdown regionally. Not going to provide all that, as you can assume, not all of it's done yet. Certainly given some of it's still to come in Q4.

Dan Moore - Equity Analyst - (00:27:55)

Got it. Last one. I'll jump back in queue. But that entire 30 million cost savings earmarked for bottom line improvement or at least sort of bottom line maintenance and getting back to that 20% operating cost margin target, is it the right way to think about it versus reinvesting back into the business?

Mike Oloski - President and Chief Executive Officer - (00:28:18)

Yeah, we're not guiding yet, dan. Obviously for 2026, our assumption the market is going to be flattish from everything we've heard and we are committed to making sure we get back to that 20% operating income level.

Dan Moore - Equity Analyst - (00:28:33)

Perfect.

Mike Oloski - President and Chief Executive Officer - (00:28:33)

I'll jump back with any follow ups. Thank you, Dan.

OPERATOR - (00:28:39)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Tim Weiss with Baird. Please proceed with your question.

Tim Weiss - Equity Analyst - (00:28:48)

Hey guys, good afternoon. Nice job. Maybe just on that last point, Mike, is basically what's changing on the cost side the expectation that the market's just going to stay slower? I mean, if we look back a year ago when you guys had that question or two years ago when you had that question, it was kind of like, hey, the market's going to get better and we'll lever those costs. Is it basically that or is there something worse happening in the market? I just kind of want to make sure I understand the drivers of the cost reductions.

Mike Oloski - President and Chief Executive Officer - (00:29:25)

Yeah, good question, Tim. It’s very much in line with what you're hearing about the market. So the census data came through August, which is the last report we had, basically said that housing starts were up a percentage which was a little inconsistent with some of the results we've seen in the industry. We've definitely seen things slow down the second half. We've certainly heard that from our customers. I believe they're all feeling the same thing. You're probably hearing that from other clients as well. And then we think that that's just going to carry over into a flat year next year.

Matt Dunn - Chief Financial Officer - (00:29:56)

Yeah, I think, Tim, we just wanted to make sure we could see our way to delivering our financial ambition on the operating margin side of 20%, even if the market is flattish or a little bit down. little bit down next year. Again, not giving the formal guide yet, but just need to take some cost choices to make sure we could get there next year.

Tim Weiss - Equity Analyst - (00:30:16)

Okay. Okay. No, that's helpful. Thanks for that. I guess on gross margins, when do you expect the tariffs I guess two questions on the trajectory. So when do you fully kind of expect the tariffs to kind of flow through the gross margin line? And then is there a noticeable impact in gross margins from turning on the Gallatin facility or are there other cost offsets?

Matt Dunn - Chief Financial Officer - (00:30:40)

Yeah, I'll take the second part first. Not a noticeable impact on turning on the Gallatin facility on gross margin, certainly in the short term or even the next year or so. I think some of that will depend on what happens with tariffs and what we do with sourcing. And are we insourcing more maybe then we. We bought from the start. A lot of that depends on where we net out on tariffs in terms of gross margin impact of tariffs. If you look at our product segment breakdown on gross margin that we talked about, you can see the gross margin on concrete construction products is down quite a bit more than wood construction products. That's largely where the anchor business falls, which is subject to the most tariffs. And some of our fastener business falls there as well. I would say that from a gross margin standpoint, we continue to see erosion over the next quarter or so, couple of quarters as the tariffs are fully rolled in. But you're seeing an impact in Q3 certainly. And so incrementally a little bit more in Q4 and then maybe a little bit in Q1. But from that standpoint then they should essentially be rolled in everywhere. But I would say if I had to pick a percentage on it now, I would say, you know, 80% rolled in already in what you see in the Q3 results.

Mike Oloski - President and Chief Executive Officer - (00:31:54)

Tim, remember when we. Okay, Tim, remember we're talking about Gallatin. We're also in sourcing, coating and heat treating processes. So it's not just moving production and adding Additional cold forming equipment. It's ramping up, kind of a full end to end process. So that's why it's going to take us a little bit of time to get that fully going.

Tim Weiss - Equity Analyst - (00:32:15)

Okay, okay. No, that's helpful. And then I guess just to kind of put a finer point on the volume trajectory. So I think we were down a little bit in North America in Q2. I think we're down a little bit again in Q3. Are you seeing things even out or would you expect your volume performance to get weaker in the first quarter and into early next year?

Mike Oloski - President and Chief Executive Officer - (00:32:40)

So if you just look at Q3, Tim, volume was down 2.7% versus prior quarter and if you look year to date, as I mentioned, down 1.4% for the full year. So definitely trajectory wise getting a little bit worse. Again, a lot of things can happen over the next couple of months. So let's see how the rest of the year plays out before we talk about 20, 2026 too much.

Tim Weiss - Equity Analyst - (00:33:10)

Okay. And you should still outperform the mid single digits. That would be the expectation, right?

Mike Oloski - President and Chief Executive Officer - (00:33:15)

I mean our ambition is to drive above market growth. As you know, historically we've been about 300 basis points above that. Now. It's not always been a straight line. 8, 9, 10 years. We've had a couple of years where volume growth was below the market. But we certainly want to grow above the market, ideally above that long term average.

Tim Weiss - Equity Analyst - (00:33:35)

Okay. Okay, sounds good. Good luck on the rest of the year. We'll see you in a couple weeks.

Mike Oloski - President and Chief Executive Officer - (00:33:40)

All right, thanks Tim.

OPERATOR - (00:33:45)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Kurt Yinger with DA Davidson. Please proceed with your question.

Kurt Yinger - Equity Analyst - (00:33:53)

Great, thanks. And good afternoon. Just wanted to follow up on the cost savings target. I apologize if I missed this, but is that 30 million expected to be kind of achieved on a run rate basis, I guess in early 2026 there. And I guess as we think about the sources of savings, how would you kind of have us split that between the cost of goods and kind of the operating expense segments?

Matt Dunn - Chief Financial Officer - (00:34:20)

Yeah, Kurt, the 30 million would be a realized number in 2026 kind of throughout the course of the year. We are going to see a little bit of savings in 2025, but it's more than offset by the severance cost. So you know, from an incremental savings standpoint, you know, net net, the full 30 million should show up in 2026. So you know, in terms of how that splits versus SG and A and COGS, I would say 90 plus percent of it's in SG&A. There's a little bit in the, you know, in the cog side, but the bulk of it is sga.

Kurt Yinger - Equity Analyst - (00:35:02)

Okay, okay, that makes sense. And then I believe Mike, you had mentioned kind of the residential market was down low single digit for you guys this quarter, which in light of some of the pressures in Florida and California and other parts of your business that are maybe more exposed or higher content per start, seems pretty good still, I guess. Has that performance surprised you at all? Do you feel like you're actually potentially gaining some share there relative to the impacts of certain regions? How would you just kind of frame that for us?

Matt Dunn - Chief Financial Officer - (00:35:42)

So Kurt, just to be clear, that volume for the total North American business was down 2.7% for the year. Our residential. For the quarter. For the quarter.

Mike Oloski - President and Chief Executive Officer - (00:35:53)

Thank you. For the residential business, it is down mid single digits for the quarter. We do believe that, and we see this with our customers that we continue to pick up share at some of our lumber yards and pro dealers. We tend to, we're still getting more shelf space we think eventually leads to more positive sellout. So we continue to feel good about our ability to grow above market. If you look at the regional mix, so the regional mix is a big deal for us. So the south and the west, when you look at the census data through August, they're down mid single digits. If you look at the Midwest and Northeast, again, look at the housing data, census housing data, they're up double digits. And remember, a house built in a seismic or hurricane area can have 10x the content of a house built in the middle US with a pretty standard building code. So that definitely has a mix. We don't have great visibility all the way to the end builder, as you know, because we're going through a bunch of lumber yards and pro dealers and contractor distributors. So it's hard to say exactly how that's impacting us, but that's definitely a headwind.

Kurt Yinger - Equity Analyst - (00:37:05)

Okay. Okay, perfect. And then just thinking about the guide at a higher level, you know, your starts assumption for the year ticked down a little bit. The outlook kind of now contemplates the one time cost to achieve the targeted reductions. Is there anything beyond the October price increase that's that's been better than expected or is maybe kind of incremental. On the positive side, just thinking about the operating margin guide moving up to the higher end.

Matt Dunn - Chief Financial Officer - (00:37:39)

Yeah, I think, you know, we narrowed up the guide, you know, to a 100 basis point range from a 200 basis point range. We've included the one time cost, I think the, you know, our volume development has been, you know, maybe better than what you hear if you listen to some of the market forecasts, whether it's a Zonda or John Burns. If you look at our volume year to date down or starting the quarter down 2.7%, I think there's a lot worse numbers out there from the folks that are forecasting the markets, although there hasn't been official census data published. So I think holding steady on volume, doing what we can on the cost front. And then obviously we had the one time gain that was known but certainly just still felt needed to take these actions on cost savings to ensure we can get where we want to go in 2026.

Kurt Yinger - Equity Analyst - (00:38:31)

Okay, great. Appreciate the color. Thank you.

Matt Dunn - Chief Financial Officer - (00:38:36)

Thank you, Kurt.

OPERATOR - (00:38:38)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Dan Moore with CGS Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Dan Moore - Equity Analyst - (00:38:45)

Yeah, just a quick follow up and appreciate the color on the gains making in some of those targeted end markets that are a key focus for growth and continuing to outpace when you look to 26 and beyond, you know, if not rank ordering, just kind of would you call out two or three that you see, you know, a little bit more opportunity here in the near term that could help you to continue to outpace those end markets if we do remain a little bit softer. Thanks again, Dan.

Mike Oloski - President and Chief Executive Officer - (00:39:21)

So we let me start with Europe because we're very pleased with the development that Europe's made over the last two quarters. Profitability improvements improving, we believe above market growth. So and we expect that the growth there to continue. And Dan, we think growth really we have plenty of opportunity in all five of our market segments. We've got very specific plans in each segment to try to gain share. When you kind of add that all that up, there are a lot of singles and doubles, meaning a lot of small applications, additional self space, shelf space, new products. We're launching small gains with customers that we do think will add all up and help us continue to drive above market growth. If you talk about the bigger ones, we continue to think all things component manufacturing is a good opportunity for us. That has been one of our strongest growth drivers the last couple of years. And then we think ramping up the new product innovation activities. We are making good progress here and we expect to continue to make good progress in that going forward.

Dan Moore - Equity Analyst - (00:40:22)

Very helpful. And then lastly obviously been aggressively returning cash to shareholders and very consistently just the language around 2026 share repurchases up to 150 million absent, you know, meaningful M and A opportunities. Is it we should sort of think of that as kind of a target, you know, just balancing, especially given capex probably starts to wind down a little bit after some of these projects. Thanks.

Matt Dunn - Chief Financial Officer - (00:40:54)

Yeah, I think as we've talked before, we've been in a pretty heavy CapEx cycle with the 2 facility expansions in Gallatin and Columbus, and that's going to normalize quite a bit next year and we'll issue that formal guidance in January, but definitely going to free up some capital and certainly want to be continuing to return cash to shareholders. So I would plan on, you know, barring, you know, unforeseen events or significant MA or something like that, that's a good Target number for 2026 on share repurchase.

Dan Moore - Equity Analyst - (00:41:22)

Perfect. All right, look forward to seeing you down in McKinney in a couple of weeks. Thanks again for all the color.

Matt Dunn - Chief Financial Officer - (00:41:30)

Looking forward to it.

OPERATOR - (00:41:34)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Tim Weiss with Baird. Please proceed with your question.

Tim Weiss - Equity Analyst - (00:41:41)

Hey guys, I said a couple follow ups on pricing. How much of carryover pricing would you have next year? I think you mentioned 30 million. You saw this quarter, I guess what would you expect in the fourth quarter and how much carries into 26?

Matt Dunn - Chief Financial Officer - (00:42:00)

So big picture, Tim, tariff story, roughly 100 million price increases specific to tariffs, a little bit over 50 million. Both of those are on an annualized level. We also implemented our first price increase in roughly four years on our US made products. Roughly a $50 million impact on an annualized level. Yeah. And then just if you recall from Q2's release, Tim, we had a little bit of pricing in Q2 from the June price increase, about 30 million in Q3, as we said, based on volume, probably another 25 or so in Q4. And then so that leaves you with probably about doing the math in my head, 30, 35 million of carryover pricing in 2026.

Tim Weiss - Equity Analyst - (00:42:51)

Okay. Okay, great. And then just on the fourth quarter, like 100 basis points is still pretty wide for the year for the EBIT margin guide and it is a seasonally weaker quarter. So just any, would you put any finer point on that or just kind of how we're thinking about the fourth quarter? Because that could be up a couple hundred or down a couple hundred basis points in that specific quarter. So just anything that could help us there?

Matt Dunn - Chief Financial Officer - (00:43:23)

Yeah, I mean, I think the biggest variable is volume.

Tim Weiss - Equity Analyst - (00:43:25)

Right.

Matt Dunn - Chief Financial Officer - (00:43:25)

I think if you look at market forecasters on what fourth quarter is going to look like from a housing star standpoint, there's some, some pretty dire forecasts out there to get to the numbers that they're saying on an annual basis based on where we are year to date. So that's probably the single biggest variable. And then from the cost savings initiative, just in terms of exactly how much we're able to execute on which timing in Q4, we have a little there, but I think it really comes down just to volume. I think the rest of it is largely locked in. But volume is a big enough variable in this case, given what's happening in what is already a pretty low volume seasonal quarter for us, which is Q4 typically.

Tim Weiss - Equity Analyst - (00:44:06)

Okay. And then just a last clarification. The 30 million of annualized savings is that in addition to the severance costs. So it's not, it's not 10 million of severance and 20 million of savings is 30 million of actual savings.

Matt Dunn - Chief Financial Officer - (00:44:20)

Yes. Yes. At least 30 million.

Tim Weiss - Equity Analyst - (00:44:23)

Okay, sounds good. Awesome. Thanks, Gus.

OPERATOR - (00:44:29)

Thank you. And we have reached the end of the question and answer session. And this also concludes today's conference. And you may disconnect your line at this time. Thank you and have a great day.