Park Hotels & Resorts reports Q3 RevPAR decline, emphasizes strategic portfolio enhancements and 2026 outlook despite government shutdown impacts

Greetings and welcome to the Park Hotels and Resorts third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are on a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone requires operator assistance during the conference, please press Star0 on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Ian Weiserman, Senior Vice President, Corporate Strategy. Thank you. You may begin.

Thank you Operator and welcome everyone to the Park Hotels and Resorts third quarter 2025 earnings call. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that many of the comments made today are considered forward looking statements under federal SECurities laws. As described in our filings with the SEC, these statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause future results to differ from those expressed and we are not obligated to publicly update or revise these forward looking statements. Actual future performance outcomes and results may differ materially from those expressed in forward looking statements. Please refer to the documents filed by Park with the SEC. Specifically the most recent reports on Form 10K and 10Q which identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward looking statements. In addition, on today's call we will discuss certain non GAAP financial information such as FFO and adjusted EBITDA. You can find this information together with reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure in yesterday's earnings release as well as in our 8K filed with the SEC and the Supplemental Financial Information available on our website at pkhotelsandresorts.com Additionally, unless otherwise stated, all operating results will be presented on a comparable hotel basis. This morning, Tom Baltimore, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an update on Park's strategic initiatives, third quarter performance and outlook for the remainder of the year. Sean Dilorto, our Chief Financial Officer, will provide additional color on third quarter results and 2025 guidance as well as an update on our balance sheet and dividends. Following our prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Tom.

Thank you Ian and welcome everyone. Park remained laser focused on our strategic priorities during the third quarter. Fortifying our strong and flexible balance sheet, recycling capital to enhance the quality and growth potential of our core portfolio and driving operational excellence by minimizing cost in a challenging operating environment. Through disciplined execution, we continue to transform park into an owner of high quality iconic hotels with compelling growth profiles. We believe this ongoing portfolio refinement, combined with unlocking embedded value across our assets positions us to deliver stronger performance in the years ahead because we continue to be proactive with respect to our balance sheet. We successfully extended and upsized our corporate credit facility in September to provide us with committed debt capital that increases our total liquidity to 2.1 billion to address our 2026 debt maturities. I want to thank our bank partners for their continued support and confidence in Park and for giving us the flexible capital to execute our business plan. Turning to our capital allocation initiatives Our strategy over the past several years has been and continues to be focused on unlocking significant embedded value within our core portfolio to maximize returns for our shareholders. With development returns far exceeding acquisition yields, we continued to lean into high ROI reinvestments, deploying over $325 million across our best performing assets at returns approaching 20%, including the meeting space expansion and renovations at our Signia and Waldorf Astoria Bonnet Creek complex in Orlando, the renovation and repositionings at our Casa Marina and Reach resorts in Key west, and the renovation and UP branding of our Santa Barbara resort. In May, we launched our sixth major hotel redevelopment in seven years, a $103 million renovation and repositioning of the Royal Palm, located in the heart of South Beach, Miami. This transformational project is expected to generate a 15 to 20% IRR and more than double the hotel's EBITDA from 14 million to to nearly 28 million upon stabilization. Importantly, construction remains on schedule and on budget and we are targeting a reopening ahead of the 2026 World cup matches in Miami next June. We also have several other major renovation projects underway, including the final phases of guest room tower renovations at both of our Hawaii hotels expected to be completed in early Q1 2026, as well as the second phase of guest room renovations at our Hilton New Orleans Riverside hotel, upgrading another 428 guest rooms in the 1,167 room main tower. The remaining 489 guest rooms at New Orleans are expected to be completed over the next one to two years. In total, we expect to execute approximately 220 million in strategic renovation projects this year, further enhancing the quality of our core portfolio. We remain confident that reinvesting in our assets represents the highest and best use of capital since 2018. We have invested approximately $1.4 billion in our core hotels, upgrading nearly 8,000 guest rooms and fully repositioning several of our most strategic assets. We continue to be disciplined and deliberate with our capital recycling efforts, particularly as the transaction market remains episodic. Our goal remains crystal clear to divest our remaining 15 non core consolidated hotels and concentrate ownership across 20 high quality assets in markets with strong growth fundamentals and limited new supply and that account for 90% of the value of our portfolio. Successful execution of this strategy will position us with one of the highest quality portfolios in the sector and among the strongest same store growth profiles. In line with this plan, we recently closed the 266 room Embassy Suites Kansas City, a property on an expiring ground lease that generated minimal EBITDA, and by year end we will exit two additional non core hotels on expiring ground leases, the DoubleTree Seattle Airport and the DoubleTree Sonoma, which are expected to generate a combined ebitda of just $300,000 this year. Exiting these three lower quality assets will meaningfully enhance our portfolio metrics, increasing nominal RevPAR by nearly $6 and expanding margins by approximately 70 basis points. Despite a challenging environment, we remain laser focused on executing our strategic objectives with several non core assets currently being marketed and active discussions underway on multiple transactions including two potential deals under letter of intent. Turning to operations as we disclosed on our second quarter call, third quarter results were impacted by a meaningful decline in group demand driven by tough year over year comparisons following last year's strong citywide calendars across several of our markets. Incremental disruption from the second phase of our Hawaii renovations which began in August, a month earlier than last year and further challenged by softer leisure and government demand. Overall RevPAR declined 6% or approximately 5% when excluding Royal Palm South Beach. Despite these headwinds, several of our core markets performed exceptionally well, further demonstrating our ability to unlock value at our hotels In Orlando, the Bonnet Creek complex delivered nearly 3% RevPAR growth with both the Signia and Waldorf Astoria hotels achieving their highest third quarter RevPAR and GOP in the complex's history. Looking ahead to Q4, the complex is set to benefit from multiple group buyouts with group revenue pace up 28% and RevPAR growth expected in the mid to upper single digits. In Key West, RevPAR growth outperformed the broader portfolio, increasing 1% for the quarter while Casa Marina's RevPAR index reached 110, up nearly 800 basis points year over year driven by very strong group demand. Overall, group room nights increased 28%, driving higher occupancy and stronger overall results. For Q4, we expect continued outperformance supported by ongoing leisure transient strength as we head into peak season translating to mid single digit RevPAR growth. In New York, RevPAR rose nearly 4% with meaningful share gains across all segments Meanwhile, in San Francisco, the JW Marriott Union Square delivered RevPAR growth of nearly 14% supported by strong group and transient demand. Both hotels are expected to maintain strong momentum through year end driven by very strong group trends, with group revenue pace up 14% in New York and 160% in San Francisco. Finally, at the Cree Bay Hilton In Puerto Rico, Q3 RevPAR increased nearly 12% with incremental leisure demand driven by the Bad Bunny Residency which added roughly 1300 basis points of lift to the quarter. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we expect a significant rebound led by a broad based recovery in group demand coupled with easier year over year comparisons in Hawaii as We lapped the 45 day labor strike which began late September last year, the impact of which was endured throughout the fourth quarter last year. Group revenue pace for the fourth quarter is currently up over 12% year over year with double digit increases for several of our largest group houses including our Bonnet Creek complex in Orlando, our JW Marriott in San Francisco, our Hiltons in New York, New Orleans, Chicago and Denver, our two Hawaii resorts and the Caribbean Hilton resort in Puerto Rico. That said, the extended government shutdown has impacted both group and transient demand in several of our core markets and more pronounced in Hawaii, D.C. and San Diego, placing additional pressure on fourth quarter results through the end of October. We estimate that the shutdown has reduced expectations for room revenue by approximately 2.5 million, resulting in a roughly 180 basis point drag on this month's RevPAR performance. October RevPAR is now expected to be relatively flat year over year for the total portfolio were up approximately 1.5% when excluding the rural Palm in Miami. Based on our current forecast which reflect the impact of the shutdown through October only, we expect fourth quarter RevPAR growth to range between negative 1% and plus 2% or positive 1% to positive 4% when you exclude Royal Palm. Shawn will provide more detail on our updated full year guidance in just a moment. Finally, as we turn our attention to 2026, I am confident that the strategic investments we have made will position ParkC to outperform during re acceleration of the lodging cycle. While some macro uncertainty persistent, particularly for the lower end consumer facing economic pressure from higher rates, we see the foundation forming for the next cycle of expansion. A more accommodative Fed and easing financial conditions resulting in lower rates and taxes should support a rebound in business investment. At the same time, sustained public sector and private sector spending, particularly around AI infrastructure and the anticipated productivity gains from AI adoption, together with a modest pickup in inbound international travel, particularly from Japan, should further strengthen lodging fundamentals. Looking ahead, we remain optimistic about 2026 and beyond, supported by expectations for lower interest rates, a more favorable regulatory environment and a renewed investment cycle, all of which should drive stronger economic and travel growth along with a meaningful boost from major events, including World cup events in multiple cities, the super bowl in San Francisco Bay Area and New York and Boston's 250th anniversary celebrations. With industry supply growth remaining at historic lows, we see a clear path for RevPAR acceleration and sustainable long term growth, particularly across the segments and markets where our portfolio is concentrated and additional growth from the capital investments we are making in the core portfolio. And with that, I'll turn it over.

To Sean Thanks Tom for the third quarter, RevPAR was $181, representing a 6% decline over the prior year or down 5%. Excluding the Royal Palm south beach, which suspended operations in May for its full scale renovation, total Hotel revenues were $585 million and hotel adjusted EBITDA came in at $141 million, translating into hotel adjusted EBITDA margin of 24.1%. Despite the softer top line results, continued cost discipline by our team and hotel partners held expense growth relatively flat for the quarter, marking the third consecutive quarter with expense growth of 1% or less. Adjusted EBITDA was $130 million and adjusted FFO per share was $0.35. Turning to the balance sheet, as Tom mentioned, we made significant progress toward addressing our 2026 maturities by amending and upsizing our corporate credit facility. The facility now includes a $1 billion senior unsecured revolver with a fully extended maturity in 2030, a new $800 million senior unsecured delayed Draw term loan facility with a fully extended maturity in 2031 and the $200 million senior unsecured term loan maturing in 2027 that was entered into in May of last year. We expect to draw on the new term loan next year to fully repay the $122 million mortgage on the Hyatt Regency Boston and together with a subsequent financing transaction expected in the first half of 2026, fully repay the $1.275 billion mortgage on the Hilton Hawaiian Village by the middle of next year when the par prepayment window opens. With respect to the Hilton San Francisco and Park 55 hotels, which were placed into receivership in November 2023, we now expect the hotels to be sold by the receiver on or before the 21st of next month as the purchaser has exercised its one time extension right outlined in the executed purchase and sale agreement. Turning to dividends, on October 23rd we declared a fourth quarter cash dividend of 25 cents per share to stockholders of record as of December 31st, translating to an annualized yield of approximately 9%. To preserve liquidity for our strategic initiatives to reinvest in the portfolio and deleverage the balance sheet, we do not expect to declare a top off dividend for 2025 reserving over $50 million. Based on the midpoint of our updated FFO guidance and finally on guidance based on third quarter results and known impacts from the government shutdown, we are adjusting our full year outlook. We now expect full year REVPAR growth to be down around 2% at the midpoint of a range between negative 2.5% to negative 1.75% or down 1% at the midpoint excluding the Royal Palm South Beach. Our revised guidance reflects weaker than expected third quarter results and continued softness in leisure demand expected for the fourth quarter, further compounded by the impact of the government shutdown in October. Accordingly, we are also lowering our full year adjusted EBITDA forecast by $12.5 million at the midpoint to $608 million within a tightened range of $595 million to $620 million, resulting in a hotel adjusted EBITDA margin range of 26.3% to 26.9%, a 20 basis point change versus prior guidance. Adjusted FFO per share is now expected to be $1.91 at the midpoint, within a range of $1.85 to $1.97 per share. This concludes our prepared remarks. We will now open the line for Q and A to address each of your questions. We ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow up Operator. May we have the first question please?

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, the floor is now open for questions. If you would like to ask a question, please press Star one on your telephone keypad at this time. A confirmation tone will indicate that your line is in the question queue. You may press Star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up the handset before before pressing the star keys. Our first question today is coming from Dwayne Finningworth of Evercore isi. Please go ahead.

Hey, thank you. Wanted to ask you about the expense performance. You know, given kind of the Lower outlook on 4Q RevPAR, it feels like you're pulling expenses down to a surprising degree to offset that. Can you just talk specifically about your. where that's coming from and what the planning cycle for those expense pull downs looks like? How much lead time do you need to do that? It just continues to be a bit surprising given the variance in RevPAR and the lesser variance in EBITDA. Thank you.

Sure. Dwayne as Sean, I'll take the first stab at that. We talked about this last quarter. Clearly aggressive asset management is a key pillar of ours and working with our hotel partners, we're looking to reduce costs in this environment that we're experiencing. We talked about deep dives last quarter. We did that in over a dozen properties. Definitely some key properties of ours. Looking at both revenue and cost opportunities on the cost side, it's been anywhere from productivity elements, staffing, full full-time equivalent (FTE) type, staffing, procurement. Think about how you might look at certain brand standards and certain assets that don't necessarily fit or make sense in challenging those. So a number of initiatives experimenting with a few ideas to ultimately drive costs out of the operating model. So this is something that we've been working on throughout the year and we've noted that some of the deep dives we did in a batch of properties we started in Q1 and Q2 and we're expecting this see the benefits of that as the year went on. So some of that is there embedded in kind of what we see in Q4. You know, I think on the other side too we continue to benefit from the renewal we did in the insurance side with 25% reduction in premiums. We continue to fight on tax appeals in certain markets, especially where real estate valuations are lower than they were pre Covid and seeing effects of that as well. So that's all kind of getting layered in. Clearly there's a focus even more intently as you see some of the expectations of Q4 come through. And that's I think more kind of real time adjustments that you make in terms of staffing levels to, you know, what you might see in occupancy drops. I think in the end, you know, it's yielded results here. I mean, when you adjust out Royal Palm, which obviously is closed, and you adjust out Hawaiian Village, which had some anomalies and other things related to with the strike on the cost side we've seen and other anomalies that we've had lapping over year over year, we've seen expense growth decline each quarter. From the start of the year we were up 2.7 in Q1 and we're down ultimately just below flat about 50 basis points down expected for Q4. So I think it's just a lot of hard work being done, a lot of good work being done to execute against this.

Okay, keep it there, Sean. Thank you.

Thank you. The next question is coming from Smedes. Rose of Citi, please. Go ahead.

Hey, Smedes. Hi. Thanks. Hi. I just wanted to ask you a little bit on the dividend side. You noted that you don't have to pay or you won't be paying the special dividend in the fourth quarter. And is the remaining quarterly $0.25, is that really just to reflect the required sort of payout from a tax perspective, or is there anything. You could do. There on the dividend side as you think about cash retention going forward?

Yeah, that's a great question, Smedes. Obviously, we're a little perplexed by the number of calls that we've gotten regarding the dividend. And if I could sort of frame for a second, if you look over the last three years, we've returned about 1.3 billion in capital to shareholders, both through dividends, obviously, and through buybacks, we have bought back about 38.5 million shares. That's about 20% of our float. And if you think about that 1.3 billion, I mean, our equity market cap today, somewhere, you know, around 2 billion-plus or minus at obviously a depressed low and somewhat surprisingly low number when you think about that. And we're 60, 70% of that. We've already returned and we're already paying a dividend that's 9, 10%. So there was nothing. There's no liquidity issues at PARC. If anything, based on what we've just done and incredible work led by Sean and by the team with our credit facility, we've got 2.1 billion in liquidity. So there are no issues at all. And I also remind people, if you think back to the pandemic, when we virtually had no revenue, and all the discipline and the moves that we made and that we got through that, so clearly no liquidity issues at all. This was just a conscious effort that we thought, you know, a 9 to 10 percent dividend yield, far in excess of any of our peers was really the right threshold. We do have depreciation. We do have the ability to be able to shield. And we really thought that we could deploy that incremental quarter, $0.25, plus or minus, back into strategic investment investments, you know, and. Or having it available to pay down leverage. So it was really nothing more than that. And I just want to reinforce, we are very disciplined about our capital allocation. I think we've demonstrated that time and time again and we'll continue to have that focus and that discipline. And we thought the incremental 25 cents and reallocating that was the right business decision at this point.

Okay, I guess just switching gears for just a minute. I wanted to ask you just as we obviously a lot of focus is turning to 2026, could you just talk about kind of what you're seeing on the group side for next year for pace of bookings or revenue and you. Know, any particular kind of sub markets. Where you're seeing significant strength or weakness?

Well, if we, if we look at 26 group pace and I think it's important to sort of given Hawaii still ramping up, take if you exclude Hawaii, excludes Royal Palm, which will reopen and complete in May, early June of next year, you're essentially flat in 26 right now. Now 27 as we look out, I think we're up about 4.1% approximately. So we think about markets. Clearly strong markets, Signia Bonnet Creek up probably nine percent are Hyatt in Boston double digits, Caribbean probably up another 3nine percent. Santa Barbara up a significant amount, certainly north of fifty percent. Casa Marina up low to mid single digits. So certainly feel very good about that right now. As we look out, we fully expect that we'll continue to see more activities with our operating partners to continue to build the group base for 26. As we think about 2026, we're pretty encouraged. I mean there are a number of data points out there that I think are interesting. Clearly, as you think through with the Fed, we certainly expect a more accommodative Fed, lower rates, clearly lower tax rates, deregulation, certainly more public and private investment and as we all know, the kind of dollars that are being invested right now in AI and infrastructure and certainly the expected productivity gains there. But you've got also special events. You've got the impact of World cup, which we all we certainly believe is going to be significant. Obviously the super bowl out in the San Francisco Bay area, obviously the anniversary celebrations 250 years, which will be largely anchored in New York and Boston, we expect obviously Park's going to be very well positioned to take advantage of that. So as we look out, we're certainly encouraged. It would be nice to have some of the tariffs and some of the other matters geopolitical sort of calm down. Less of an impact would certainly be helpful and I think provide incremental tailwinds as well. But we're very encouraged as we look out to 2026. We're also very encouraged by really the strategic investments that we continue to make. As you think about what we're doing in Hawaii, both properties there, if you think about New Orleans, what we're doing, obviously just incredibly bullish about our transformation in Miami, we think that's just going to be an extraordinary success and really excited about the progress that we're making there and fully expect that that will affect open obviously in May, early June of next year.

Great, thank you, thank you, thank you.

The next question is coming from Chris Waronka of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Good morning guys. Hey Tom. So my first question, Tom, you mentioned. Asset sales and you got 15 non core assets. You may have other things with land and such. I guess the question would be what's. Your conviction level, what's your confidence level. Maybe now versus a year ago or six months ago on some of these same assets? What needs to happen to get some of these over the finish line? And do you think we start seeing an acceleration in that as we move. Through into the new year?

Chris, it's a great question and thank you for it. I mean we, I can't tell you as a leadership team and we are laser focused. Let me just set the stage for a second. Really our top 20 assets account for 90% of the value of the company. And if you really focus on sort of the core and the core metrics of those 20 assets, it's as really as strong as anything portfolio in the sector. We remain laser focused on selling the non core and recycling that capital. I think it's important to remind listeners we have sold or disposed now of 47 assets for north of 3 billion since the spin. So we have in the worst of times, even during the pandemic, keep in mind we had six assets in San Francisco. Francisco, we now have one asset and we sold two of those in the worst of times during the pandemic. It is challenging in this environment. It's not an issue of debt. There's plenty of debt capital. There's plenty of equity capital. I think if you can get really just better visibility and less volatility, that certainly will help. There are two additional leases. Obviously we gave back the Kansas City asset which is we mentioned obviously in our prepared remarks. We've got two other assets that we made the decision last year that we would not extend those ground leases, short term ground leases. We'll give those assets back at the end of this year. We've got two other assets under letter of intent and we've got several others at various stages of the marketing process. We are very confident we probably would lean more towards the low end of our guidance than the high end. We said 300 to 400 million this year and it is conceivable that some of that could bleed into early next year from a closing standpoint. But please rest assured that we are laser focused, committed, experienced in selling and disposing of these non core assets. We've done it, done it with assets that have been even more complex. Every asset's got a story, whether it's illegal or tax or some other matter. But the team is working their tails off to make progress and get this matter behind us. The sooner we can get closer to that 20 hotels, we think that's really going to improve our optionality, but I think allow investors to really look through with the core assets and really the incredible work that we're doing within that core, that's where we're spending significant dollars. We believe passionately that we can generate higher returns from development yields than we can from acquisition yields.

Okay, thanks for all that color, Tom. As a follow up, I think we heard Hilton last week talking about lower expenses to owners and franchisees. And some of that is coming from the, I guess what you call the shared. Don't know the exact term, but some of the chargebacks. Is there more that can be done there? How do you guys view that? Is that a, you know, a material or tangible benefit to you next year and just maybe where you sit with respect to, you know, maximizing what can be done with the, through the franchise agreements to keep your costs down from. The, from the parent companies. Thanks.

Yeah, it's another great question, Chris. We are, we are spending a lot of time with our partners at Hilton and our other operating partners. As Sean so eloquently pointed out, when you think about expenses and what we've done, you know, three quarters in a row, if you look, look at insurance, if you look at the deep dive analysis that he mentioned, we are as good as anybody at really in this environment where you haven't really had the top line growth across the sector, doing everything humanly possible to take cost and really reinvent the operating model where we can, you're going to see that continue and you're going to see us continue to push and encourage and partner with Hilton, with Marriott, Hyatt, et cetera, trying to find ways to continue to take cost out of the business. There are huge opportunities there and I have to think candidly with the advancement of AI as that continues to expand and that we've got to believe that there are going to be significant savings and productivity gains there as well. I don't think those occur necessarily this week, this month, but I certainly believe over the intermediate and long term there are going to be real opportunities there.

Okay, Appreciate all that color, Tom. Thanks.

Thank you. The next question is coming from David Katz of Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Hey David, good morning. Thanks for. Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. What I would love some help with having gone out there earlier this year with yourselves and your peers. You know, Hawaii is still just a confusing market for me. Can you just sort of give us as much insight on sort of what the puts and takes of the drivers, the headwinds are, you know, out of Hawaii at this point?

Yeah, it's a fair question, David. I think you've got to kind of step back a little bit and just think about Hawaii. If you think about over the last 20 years, you know, Oahu's revpar growth has really outpaced the US by at least 120 basis points. I think Key west in Hawaii is sort of lead a CAGR of about 4.5% versus the US average of about 3.3%. If you think back over that period of time, you've had negative supply growth, I think 0.3 or less than that. Think about the next five years. We're thinking about supply growth in Hawaii at 0.3 again. So that backdrop to us is very, very encouraging. Domestic airlift is also increased 20% since 2019. And a lot of the owners in Hawaii own their assets under ground leases. In our case in both of our world class resorts there. We own those obviously fee simple and we just think that's a huge advantage. And obviously there's a little bit of a concentration issue. Ideally we wouldn't want to have 25, 30%. But if you're going to have it anywhere, having it in Hawaii certainly gives us comfort. Clearly from a demand standpoint. If you look historically it's about 10 million visitors, 9 to 10 million visitors, 60% plus or minus coming out of the US 17% historically coming out of Japan over the last 30 years. And you know, to get to your point, it was about 1.5 million in Japan. I mean we're going to end this year probably somewhere in the 720 to 750,000. So you're clearly seeing less visitation from Japan. It's been a slower ramp up. There are reasons for that. The stronger dollar versus the Yen and there have been some fuel surcharges. There have been some cheaper alternatives. So clearly that Hawaii ramp up or the Hawaii participation today is about probably 3 to 4% of the international demand at our assets versus probably 19% plus or minus where it was in 2019. So we are encouraged by recent discussions sequentially, Hawaii's got, obviously we had the strike, it was a very challenging environment for 45 days. And the lingering effects of that, you know, we were down 18% first quarter, 13% second quarter, 9% plus or minus third quarter. And, you know, we expect we're going to be somewhere, you know, north of 20% here in fourth quarter, even with sort of the revised guidance that Sean outlined. So it's certainly taking a little longer. But we are bullish and passionate and still believe obviously the investments that we're making, Tappa Tower, huge, huge benefit. Rainbow Tower and what we're seeing there, we're excited, obviously, what we're doing at Hilton Waikoloa. Hilton Waikoloa, a little more complex, the second phase of that renovation. So more rooms out of service. That certainly is contributing to a little bit of the more disruption there and certainly contributing to some of the softness there. And Canadian travel, Canadians, as we all know, account for Mexican travelers, about half of the inbound international travel into the US And Canadians have been frustrated and they have been voting with their, with their dollars. And you know, their travel has been down in Hawaii and it's certainly been down in other markets as well. So we're certainly feeling the effects of that as well. Once some of those matters on the trade front get normalized and get resolved, we certainly expect that they will be back and certainly think that Hawaii will accelerate in terms of its ramp up.

A lot going on, but you still like it. Thank you.

Yep, very much so.

Thank you. The next question is coming from Patrick Scholes of Truist Securities. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Sorry if I missed this in the prepared remarks. You had noted in your guidance and expectations. Only expecting the government shutdown through today. It doesn't look like it's going to get resolved today. Why not continue that expectation in your guidance beyond today? Thank you.

Yeah, it's another excellent question. Look at the time we were preparing the guidance and the situation has been so fluid, we wanted to include for investors and analysts and all the listeners what we knew. And what we knew, you know, as of the end of October was about $2.5 million of impact. So we've included that. But we also were conservative in our guidance and that reflects sort of the midpoint. So if this were to continue and none of us know how this is going to unfold and everybody's probably got an opinion, the reality is that if you look at the lower end of our guidance, we believe that we are adequately covered if this were to continue, and I'll reinforce that we centered obviously our guidance on that midpoint and recognized that if it were to continue, we believe that we're covered through that guidance range. I would also tell you my own opinion. Growing up and living in this market for my life and talking and watching, my strong belief is that this will be resolved in the near future. I don't think either party can allow for this to continue much longer, particularly with the impact with 40 million people not, not having food benefits, among other benefits. And so I hope that our leaders in Washington on both sides of the aisle will resolve it in short order. But we think that we are covered for the guidance that we have provided. If we get more information or if it were to extend and have more of an impact, we certainly will provide that on either, on either side of that. But we wanted to provide and be transparent for what we knew and what we were seeing in our portfolio.

Okay, thank you. Thank you.

Thank you. The next question is coming from Steven Grambling of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Hey. Thank you. I just wanted to follow up on the reallocation of the, the top off dividend to investment. Is that something that you'll have the opportunity to do in the future? Maybe I missed this. And if you did have that opportunity. Maybe any thoughts around thinking through that capital allocation? Are there big projects that you try to pull forward that you have on your horizon? Thanks.

Yeah, it's a great question. Thank you for it. Listen, we've, as I said earlier, we've been very thoughtful about capital allocation and again, you know, returned 1.3 billion to shareholders here over the last three years. And you know, we really concluded, Sean and I and the team that, you know, obviously a 9, 10% dividend, which is where we are today, was and certainly separate sector leading was certainly enough and made sense. We will have the flexibility in the future to certainly manage that dividend and we will be thoughtful. We just didn't think, we thought reallocating that 50 million for either debt reduction and or continued strategic investments in our portfolio makes a lot of sense. I mean, if you take Bonnet Creek as an example and just the success that we're having there, you know, we've taken EBITDA from there approximately 55 million. We think we'll be somewhere north of 95 million this year. We're generating significant returns and higher returns through our development and strategic ROI activities than we can generate through acquisitions. So strong believers in the that and strong believers that there is a lot of embedded upside within this portfolio.

Got it. And just to be clear then, so. I guess the answer in some ways. Depends on where the dividend yield shakes out in valuation. Is that fair?

Yes. Yeah, that certainly plays. I mean, we've, you know, we've always targeted kind of 65% of AFFO and, you know, obviously we've managed that a little more the year, but it's not, again, it's not a liquidity issue. We've got plenty of liquidity. We've got. When you. We have no issues there and we have our 20, 26 maturities addressed appropriately in a very thoughtful, very creative and huge credit to Sean and the team and what we've done there. So we are, we are very thoughtful and I think we've been as disciplined as anybody on the capital allocation front. But we also know a respectable solid dividend makes sense. And clearly we're way, way in excess of all of our peers on that front.

Fair enough. Thank you so much. Thank you.

Thank you. The next question is coming from Chris Darling of Green Street. Please go ahead. Thanks.

Good morning. So, Tom, thinking about the impact of the government shutdown in the past. When these events have been resolved, do you typically see demand come back fairly quickly or is there historically a lagged recovery? Not sure if you have any experience, you know, thinking back to drawn.

Yeah, I mean, I think there's certainly a possibility of that, Chris. I mean, clearly it depends. You know, we haven't seen, we've. While we've seen some group cancel related to government, it's been certainly more so on the transient kind of seeing how that, how that's. The pickup of that has been more impacted. But, you know, if groups, you know, a lot of these groups tend to have to. Are required to meet in a way. And so we certainly expect that those will be rebooked. Now the question will be will it be within the quarter or be kind of into next year? It's the kind of question. So it might be a little bit more spread out over a number of months. That may be hard to tell really a true impact on it. We did some looking in a way back at the last long one first Trump term, and it straddled both December and January. And so you certainly saw some impact in government Spend in transit in January, but didn't really see dramatic pickup in February. But it was also a good time, good macro environment too there. So it's kind of hard to look, look back at the past and try to draw any conclusions. But just from a standpoint of the fact that, you know, a lot of people have to, you know, make these trips, have to do this travel in a way. And so there's probably a thought that you're going to rebalance some of that. It's just a matter of when. Chris, I agree with everything that Sean said. The other point I'd make here in our portfolio, obviously a strong fourth quarter group pace of about 12%. Surprisingly, November and December, December were double digit increases and certainly stronger than October. So if we are all lucky and our leaders on both sides of the aisle resolve and reopen the government, we could see increased activity here based on what's on the books already in November and December. So it could be a bit of a green shoot for us there.

Okay, yeah, those are all helpful thoughts. Realize, you know, it's a fluid situation. Certainly, you know, maybe just one quick one going back to capital allocation as you work to sell some of these non core assets in the coming quarters and you think through use of proceeds, to what extent are you thinking about share buybacks? Just given the frustration with where the share price has been relative to, of course, you know, needing to retain some amount of capital for the different redevelopments and expansions that you've talked about?

Yeah, it's a great question, Chris. I would say, look, as I mentioned, I've said it a few times on the call. We've returned 1.3 billion and we've bought back 20% of the float. With that backdrop, it is important to us. We've always had a guiding principle, a leverage in that three, three to five times, we're certainly above that. And obviously a little bit of that's artificial right now because you've got major renovations underway in New Orleans, two assets in Hawaii, and of course Royal Palm. But we certainly would like as a team to use some of the excess proceeds to pay down debt and continue to invest back into our portfolio. There are opportunistic times when going in and buying shares will make sense. But I'd say right now the two priorities would be really paying down debt and reinvesting back into the portfolio.

All right, thank you for the time. Thank you.

Thank you. The next question is coming from Jay Kornreich of Cantor Fitzgerald. Please go ahead.

Hey, thanks. Good morning. I just Wanted to ask a question about the 4Q outlook. RevPAR is roughly flat which is a change from the expectation last quarter where 4Q would be I guess up 3 to 5%. And recognizing there are some new dynamics such as the government shutdown. But are there any other points or markets that you would relate to that maybe led to some of the deceleration for the 4Q expectation?

Yeah Jay, I'll jump in on that one. In our last call we talked about a 3 to 5% up for Q4. So as you spoke to and you're noticing about 350 basis point drop relative to that expectation. It's kind of a mix of macro trends and near term disruption as well as a little bit of park specific sprinkled in there. But when you kind of start from just a more macro level and just some of the transient softness we've seen, whether it's through this, through inbound international travel that Tom talked about, just seeing continuation of that and looking at certain markets and seeing a little bit of trend line there, I'd say that there's about 150 basis points of impact to Q4 based on just one or more general trends and then mostly on transient because group remains strong pace is up 12% and within our largest 15 group hotels it's up 17%. So we feel good about the group setup. It's just more the transient side being impacted relative to our previous expectations going from there. Government impact about 100 basis points obviously continues to be a challenge since the beginning of earlier in the year with Doge and everything else. We've certainly seen the weakness there but now more pronounced with the government shutdown which we've talked about. Chicago we've seen pickup trends deteriorate materially there with the National Guard deployment into that market. So it's again more of a transition impact in terms of pickup there. Group position there in Hilton Chicago is up 12% for the quarter and is holding. So but it's more about it's about a 50 basis point impact to Q4 there from that market. And then Waikoloa mentioned before on the on the renovation scope there just kind of a little more disruption than plan. Do some schedule shifting. We're doing a little bit kind of as part of phase two. We're doing a little bit of extra work from phase one brought into phase two. So a little bit of an adjustment there. It's about 50 basis points. So general softness 150 basis points, government related 100 and then another 100 between the Waikoloa renovation and the Chicago disruption.

Okay, I appreciate that breakdown. That's all for me.

Thank you. The next question is coming from Cooper Clark of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Great. Thanks for taking the question and appreciate. Hello. Thanks for taking the question and appreciate the earlier comments on the dispositions. Curious if you could speak to the bidder pools and buyers you are actively seeing looking for product in the transaction market today. Wondering what markets, products or yield a buyer is looking for to step in today with what should be a better 26 and 27 demand picture despite some uncertainty.

Yeah, I mean look, there's plenty of liquidity out there and I think the buyer pool is mixed. I mean you've got from owner operators, certainly family offices, you've got small private equity to larger private equity, you've really got the normal menu. And as I think about assets, we are, you know, we've had and our team has had great success in really finding that buyer for a particular opportunity. And we continue to comb through and have discussions. I think the hesitation with some buyers is debt markets certainly have improved but if you believe that rates are going to continue to come down, you might be a little more hesitant on that front front and then certainly just better visibility on the demand front and probably candidly just clarity on some of the geopolitical and trade and inflation. I mean all the things that all of us are working through right now. Uncertainty really is the enemy of decision making. So I do think that there are some buyers out there that are being a little more hesitant and some cases we certainly, certainly understand that. From my own experience, you know, periods of dislocation really create the best opportunities to be buyers, particularly if you've got an intermediate and longer term hold period. Obviously we continue to work hard. Again, we've got the track record and I just, I can't emphasize that enough and how we've been able to reshape this portfolio since the spin here and now we're, you know, we're 47 assets that we've sold or disposed of and two more in the queue and several more at various stages, whether loi or at the marketing process. So we're confident we'll get it done and no one is going to work harder than the men and women at park as we continue to pursue our objectives.

Okay, that's how and then appreciated still early and there's some uncertainty but wondering how you're thinking about the balance of group BT and leisure into 26. Just given some of your earlier comments on group pace and also a strong 26 event calendar in various markets, encouraged.

I mean, listen, I part of this, if you, if we can obviously the President's return and the discussions in China, if you can begin to just provide clarity both on tariffs and trade matters and you look at the backdrop of the just inordinate amount of capital that's being invested through AI but you start seeing, and obviously on the public investment side, just the chips act, probably 30, 40% of that or more remains to be spent as well. Coupled with the special events that I've mentioned and you mentioned as well, from the World cup, the super bowl and obviously the 250th anniversary and I think the animal spirits getting more clarity and just getting broader participation in the broader economy. We know that both in the lower end and certainly parts of the middle that people are hesitant and perhaps a little more, more stretched if those issues can be addressed. And I do think that the recent tax bill helps with that. You'll get a tailwind that I think 26 and certainly 27 as we look out, we see are very, very encouraging. The other thing that gives us great comfort is the fact that you've got muted supply. If you look at the park portfolio, we're 0.7% supply growth versus long term average of about 2% and that's over the next five years. So we find that very encouraging as we look out and as you look at our portfolio, you can't replicate, you can't replicate what we have in Hawaii, what we have obviously in Bonnet Creek and what we have in Key west and those barriers to entry. So we're very, very encouraged as we look out over the near term, want to get through this year, obviously want to get beyond the government shutdown and some of the other matters of uncertainty. But I think as we look out 26, 27, we are very, very encouraged.

Awesome. Thank you, thank you, thank you.

The next question is coming from Dan Pollitzer of JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning everyone. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to go back to the capital allocation this year. Obviously notwithstanding the dividend, There were some CapEx that I think came down. As you think about preserving more capital to reinvest in the portfolio, the CapEx coming down this year, maybe there's some timing there directionally. Is there maybe any inkling on how we should think about capex for next year? Just given it seems like you're focused on reinvesting in the portfolio.

Yeah, I think I'll let Shaun give you the math. But we are not lowering capex I mean, if anything, we have been crystal clear. And I think if you look at what we've done in Bonnet Creek, what we've done obviously in Key west, obviously what we're doing right now in Miami, what we're doing in Hawaii with two of the towers near complete. Think about Hilton Waikoloa, which will be done this year. If anything we sort of, if anything, we accelerated and expanded scope slightly and part of that some things that we needed to go back and some other things we felt we needed to expand. So we are all in. We think we're making the right decisions and obviously I think the results are showing that we're seeing the incremental lift in A rates IRRs that are in the 15 to 20%. Think about what we did in Santa Barbara. So we think high better returns for us through the development side than what we're seeing on the acquisition side.

Yeah, I just to add it's more so timing. We're probably about 190 million or so through the third quarter on spend and we certainly expected that more ramped up with Royal Palm well underway here for the Q4. But I think in total for the year, we just felt like there's probably more appropriate range for the actual spend out the door projects still remain the same, just more going into next year.

Got it, thanks. And then just on Hawaii, maybe another one asked differently. I think you're pacing about 70, 75% of the EBITDA relative to 2023. As you think about the glide path and trajectory into 2026. You do you think you can fully close that gap or do you think it's going to take a few years?

I think you're back in 27. I think you're still ramping in 26. That and you're looking at what's probably low 150s number this year versus 177. Keep in mind that we're, you know, we're finishing the second phase of the Palace Tower in Hilton Waikoloa. And then of course you've got the Rainbow Tower that we're finishing up here in Hilton Waikoloa, which obviously is one of the premier towers. So we remain steadfast and very confident and certainly believe that those continue to ramp up. And we're also making a number of other operational changes. We are spending a tremendous amount of time with our partners at Hilton looking at both from leadership, sales and marketing, all of the commercial engines. It's terribly important to us. But it also is a big fee generation for generator for our Partners at Hilton as well. So.

Got it. Thanks so much. Thank you.

Thank you. The next question is coming from Robin Farley of ubs. Please go ahead. Great. Thank you. Hi, how are you? Just two small clarifications at this point. One is just trying to understand your comments about the, you know, because the release says your guidance includes just the strike through sort of today or I mean, sorry, the government shutdown through today. It sounded like you said that the lower end of your range includes the shutdown continuing through the quarter. But just if I heard you right about the impact in October, it seems like the range wouldn't be wide enough if it continued. Is it just that? Is government business less of a factor in November and December than in October? I mean, that would make sense if that's the case. Or do you think it would be a similar impact when we think about how the next few months could look?

Yeah, we think it would be less of an impact, Robin, as we look out. And look, as I said, one person's opinion, I just don't believe that they can allow this to drag out much longer for all the reasons we all know, all of the families and kids and others that are being impacted. And you know, we're all hearing rumors that certainly this should be resolved hopefully in the very near future. But we also believe that the lower end of that guidance will largely protect us based on the guidance that we've provided.

Understood. But just even if it were solved today, in theory. Right. There'd still be still be some November impact. But I totally understood. Thank you. And then the other clarification was just on Hawaii, and I just wasn't sure if I when I caught your comments about four group bookings, I think when you said group pace, the company overall was flat in 26. I think you were excluding Hawaii and just wanted to it seems like Hawaii, you're comping the strike, have the benefit of some room renovations. I know the convention center in Hawaii will close at the end of 26. So I know that obviously the 27th, you know, that would make the 27th sort of timing off. But for 2026, is your group Hawaii, the pace benefiting from those strike comps and things?

Robin, our understanding is that the convention center will be closing the end of 25. So the Hawaii down is primarily just the timing of that and not so much. Correct. Okay, thank you. And keep in mind, group is also a small percentage of Hawaii, but. Will be closing here in 25. Okay, great. Thank you. Thank you.

Thank you. The next question is coming From Ari Klein of BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Thanks. I had a bit of a bigger picture question. I think historically non residential fixed investment has been relatively highly correlated with demand. But now perhaps with AI, that relationship is seemingly not holding up the same way, you know, and maybe even distorting the relationship. Curious what you think about that. And if that continued, how does that impact your ability to forecast and what else are you looking at, you know, in terms of, you know, helping with things?

Yeah, we all spend time trying to figure out what's going to be the right correlation. If you think historically it was GDP growth and then if you think about certainly the last decade or so it's been huge emphasis on non residential fixed investment spending. I have to believe candidly on both sides, I think that both remain important. I just think it's the level, if you think about just gdp, they have been disconnected here in, in the short term, I have to believe that that will change and we'll continue to see as GDP gets in, as Bessen and others want to get it in that 3% range, we certainly think that's going to be a huge tailwind for our sector. That's one point that I would make. And if you think about just the amount of investment spending in the adjacencies, both in energy, both in data centers, both AI, both in all the things that have got to be done from certainly electrification side, I have to believe that that will continue to benefit lodging as well as we sort of look out. And if you get nonresidential fixed investment spending in that sort of 3 to 5% range, you get GDP in that 3% range. Think of both the operating leverage and the benefit that we think that's going to accrue to lodging will be significant. And candidly, we'll have an industry that we hope will be certainly more attractive to investors from that standpoint where you can get the kind of operating leverage which is just more difficult to get when we have these lower revpar numbers.

Thanks for that. And maybe just on the dividend, I understood you and not paying the top off. But as you think about the yield, you know, in that 9 to 10% range, when it comes to next year, is there a thought to maybe, to maybe reduce that the yield?

Yeah, we obviously haven't decided that for next year. Historically we've been in that 65% of AFFO. If anything we, you know, we, you could see us certainly consider moderating that a little. But at this kind of run rate, a dollar dividend we think is very healthy and certainly a 9 to 10% for anything we hear from most investors. They certainly appreciate that this has gotten a lot more interest than we would have thought and hoped. To be candid and I know some I want to reinforce again there are no liquidity issues, zero with Park. If anything, we've got significant liquidity. We just decided that we wanted to allocate. We thought that there was an opportunity both to pay down some debt and also reinvest back into the portfolio. So it was really a strategic decision made by the leadership team.

Thank you. Thank you.

Thank you. The next question is coming from Ken Billingsley of Compass Point. Please go ahead.

Oh, good afternoon. Appreciate you fitting me in here. The question is comparing total revpar to revpar growth on a year to date basis. You know, a number of markets all smaller total RevPAR growth versus its comparable RevPAR such as New York, Boston, DC. My question is, is this all group and banquet related and how is 2026 shaping up in the group business? Will a bump in leisure travel to some of those cities for the 250th. Anniversary actually negative impact? Kind of our total revpar expectations for those markets.

I think we certainly continue to see strong out of room spend and certainly that goes hand in hand with the, with group here with banquet and catering and that those patterns have kind of held up even with Q3, you know, we had a, you know, certainly a weaker group quarter and a little bit weaker than expected. Despite that banquets, you know, amongst urban and resort properties have held up pretty well. Banquet revenue side, the outlet side was down about 6,7% relative to expectations. Again more so because I think as you had a little bit of weaker group, you pivoted to more discount channels. So you know, kind of higher low price point guest who's not necessarily going to spend as much on the outlet. So we certainly saw that dynamic go on there. But I think when you look at the mainstream, you know, guests and consumer, it's you know, on the group side people continue to spend on their events, AV and the like and guests that are kind of more on the transient side, leisure side and even business are spending in the outlet. So I think that's led to what we've typically seen is about, I think predicting about 100 basis point benefit differential between total revpar and revpar this year. We'd certainly expect that to continue into next year. As you think about some of these, specifically some of these events, I think there's certainly a nice benefit and pop you expect on rate in the rooms for things like the World Cup. But you, you see a lot of you know you expect a lot of people being around these markets you know as part of the maybe not going even going to the games as part of the celebrations and really being promoting you know restaurants and certainly other things and outlets inside the hotels themselves. So I think we certainly expect to see continuation of strong spending patterns outside the room to help promote total revpar growth above room revpar growth.

Appreciate that. Thank you.

Yep, thank you. At this time I would like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Baltimore for closing comments.

On behalf of the PARCC team really appreciate everyone taking time today. We are available for follow up questions and look forward to seeing many of you and NAREAD in Dallas. Safe travels and please know that PARC team is laser focused on continuing to create shareholder value.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines or log off the webcast at this time and enjoy the rest of your day.