Spire Global reports significant contract wins and strong backlog, positioning for over 30% revenue growth in 2026 despite recent timing challenges.
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Summary
- Spire Global reported a GAAP revenue of $12.7 million for Q3 2025, with a decline due to the absence of maritime business revenue and timing shifts in government contracts.
- The company secured significant government contracts, including a large NOAA contract and involvement in the US Government Missile Defense Agency's Multi Award Shield IDIQ contract.
- A new satellite manufacturing facility in Germany will become operational in Q1 2026, enhancing capacity to produce up to 100 satellites annually.
- Spire Global is confident in achieving over 30% revenue growth in 2026, driven by a substantial backlog and increased on-orbit capacity.
- Management emphasized strategic partnerships with European and US government entities, highlighting growth in weather data and defense applications.
Enabling them to act faster, act safer and act with greater confidence. Today, Spire Global operates a satellite constellation of over 100 payloads. Our antennas cover every spot on earth approximately every 12 minutes. We serve data and analytics applications to hundreds of customers across 45 countries and collect millions of RF signals and atmospheric measurements every day. Spire Global closed the third quarter on the back of sizable commercial and government contract wins with triple digit growth on multiple repeat contract awards in our core areas of weather and security. These awards reflect demand translating into signed long term programs. We head into 2026 buoyed by unmistakable market opportunity. Even as we have navigated recent timing variability inherent in government procurement and delivery, heightened security imperatives, larger budget allocations, accelerated procurement cycles and clear expectations for commercial partnerships have created a fertile environment for a well established company like Spire Global, one that can deliver operational capability today while iterating rapidly toward tomorrow's needs. Our 2025 satellite manufacturing ramp up proved we can scale with confidence. Satellite manufacturing throughput doubled per year while remaining flat headcount. Our on orbit data production is expected to increase tenfold for crucial RF Global products and threefold in our daily Radio Occultation profiles. This step change in capacity cements Spire Global's role as a true dual use solution provider. Driven by European, especially German demand, we have cost effectively installed a world class satellite manufacturing facility in Germany which will provide us with backup resilience and additional manufacturing capacity of up to 100 satellites per year. Once fully qualified and operational in Q1, we have selected KPMG as our new auditor.. audit partner, and we are confident that Spire Global is positioned to operate as a regular reporting public company going forward. Spire is positioned to operate as a regular reporting public company going forward. In September, Spire secured its largest radio operation contract from NOAA, an award three times the size of last year's in annual sounding volume and and a greater than 40% improvement in price per sounding versus historical benchmarks. The Agency also awarded Spire a contract for ocean surface winds derived from our GNSSR data supporting operational forecasting missions across Europe. Demand for our weather data suite remained robust. We renewed our radio occultation agreement with EUMETSAT, sold GNSSR data to the European Space Agency and sold data to a leading European weather agency in support of improved forecast accuracy as the region advances its process of catching up with the US in terms of commercial data use, SPIRE is uniquely positioned to continue as the key commercial partner based on its strong European operations. Looking ahead to 2026, we anticipate an even deeper partnership with NOAA across our product categories. Buoyed by the Agency's ongoing dialogue with commercial providers about their expanding strategic role in satellite based weather observations. This expectation is supported by the overarching directive of the current US Administration toward more commercial partnerships and less government ownership. Spire's momentum is further supported by the upcoming launch of our Microwave Sounding satellite next month which addresses a multibillion dollar global atmospheric sounding need. Microwave sounders are among the most impactful satellite observations for forecasting models worldwide, especially because they can see inside clouds and and provide temperature and moisture profiles crucial for accurate forecasting. Microwave soundings currently provide up to 40% of forecast accuracy benefit and are used by all global forecasting agencies around the world. However, the combination of legacy government instrument retirements, administrative changes in data sharing and delays in new instruments have sparked global concerns about the consistency and completeness of microwave data sets, particularly for critical applications such as hurricane intensity monitoring. This further opens the door to efficient and effective private sector participation in the multibillion dollar global observing System. As geopolitical dynamics evolve, weather intelligence is also gaining heightened relevance for defense. Germany's recently published Space Security Strategy underscores the strategic value of weather observations alongside traditional intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance domains. Demonstrating this trend, SPIRE recently won a contract award for High Resolution Weather Insights to support military applications. Further illustrating the link between global security and citizen safety, SPIRE signed a contract to deliver soil moisture data across Ethiopia's Somali region covering hundreds of thousands of square kilometers. In partnership with the International Organization for Migration, we have also won a coveted contract for High Resolution Soil Moisture Insights from a brand name commercial Smart AG customer in the Spire Global's expanding partnership with Deloitte and the accompanying contract to field multiple satellite clusters equipped with Deloitte's Silent Shield Cyber Defense Suite underscores the strategic relevance of our space services platform. While revenue recognition extends beyond 2025, satellite manufacturing, operational deployment and backlog conversion are proceeding exactly as planned. The program contributes to the company's total deferred revenue backlog of over 200 million, representing multiple years of contracted activity and reinforcing the long term financial strength of the business. It is also another demonstration of our ability to secure high profile awards that amplify our go to market reach within the US Federal ecosystem. Spire was recently selected as an awardee on the US Government Missile Defense Agency's Multi Award Shield IDIQ contract,. With a shared ceiling of 1.51 billion, this award positions us to compete for task orders under the Golden Dome Initiative, a US Missile defense effort expected to award over tens of billions of dollars per year over the next decade. Winning in this highly contested selection process confirms our role as an industrial based partner capable of delivering defense grade space based data, RF intelligence and digital engineering expertise for today and tomorrow's national security requirements. The Secretary of Defense's rapid procurement guidelines explicitly reward innovative firms that can meet capability needs. Today, our Boulder based manufacturing facility and all U.S. workforce provide the domestic footprint and security posture required to respond quickly. While the US government shutdown shifted a portion of anticipated revenue from 2025 into 2026, the underlying programs, funding and delivery commitments remain fully intact and recent awards demonstrate that the US defence market continues to expand in Europe, urgency for commercial partnerships in defence has increased meaningfully compared. To a year ago. Germany has announced a 7 billion euro per year space defense budget over the next five years totaling approximately $40 billion. Our ISO ready clean room and fully vertically integrated facilities in Munich makes Spire Global one of the very few companies local to Germany with end to end small satellite capabilities with German nationals as well as German speaking executives. We are also the only one with deep in space radio frequency expertise. The German Space Agency DLR, a current SPIRE partner and customer, will play a key role in procurement, accelerating engagement with commercial suppliers. This relationship will support our ongoing direct engagement with the military on their short term requirements, capability needs and procurement asks. The European Space Agency Ministerial Council concluded in November with the largest financial commitment in their history. Member states pledged 22 billion euro in new subscriptions for the next three years, with Germany contributing 5 billion euro, an increase of almost 50% under the European Space Agency's geo-return policy. German contributions are reserved for contracts with German companies such as Spire Global, reinforcing our strategic positioning within Europe's growing space defense ecosystem and European Space Agency's largest contributor. The European Union's Space Shield Initiative, slated to begin in 2026 and increasing urgency among NATO members, further underscore demand for sovereign and commercial space capabilities. Across national security strategies. Core requirements such as intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance are consistently highlighted, reinforcing the relevance of Spire Global's dual use satellite data services. NATO countries have pledged to increase their defense budgets to 5% of GDP. Assuming 5% of that amount for space would unlock 17 to 32 billion dollars. Per year in additional contracts. Spire's Space Reconnaissance portfolio is seeing heightened demand as agencies move beyond traditional telecom and imaging approaches to exploit the radio frequency domain. Our pipeline includes multi year sovereign programs with recurring data demand as well as requests for immediate data delivery using installed capacity. With government backing, we have begun collecting S band and X band maritime radar signals and expanding geolocation capabilities to serve our non US customer base. SPIRE is advancing technology by utilizing a single satellite and our small form factor Lemur platform to gain insights that would traditionally take a larger platform or multiple satellites. Even as Spire emerges as a national security technology partner, our commercial business remains an important growth engine. Under new leadership, our weather and aviation businesses are increasingly integrated. With commercial revenue growing at a double digit rate year over year and strong customer retention, SPIRE continues to see interest from our energy and commodity focused clients that are using our short term high resolution forecasts and our long term subseasonal to seasonal forecasts. We are hearing consistent feedback from these customers that spire's forecasts are ahead of other models, capturing critical weather signs earlier and translating them into real operational and financial impact. During the quarter, we were also awarded a commercial aviation contract in which the customer is utilizing Spire's ADS B data to track aircraft movements and detect potential discrepancies which may point to suspicious activities including route divergence or aircraft operating with. ADS B switched off. Our engineering transformation efforts continue to deliver results proving that we can deliver operational capabilities at scale. We process nearly twice as many satellites through the clean room this year while maintaining flat headcount and stricter quality controls. By implementing design for Manufacturability and lean manufacturing principles, we are meeting heightened government cybersecurity and sovereign requirements and delivering the accompanying documentation while continuing to invest in this area. On orbit checkout time has been reduced by roughly 50%, compressing the time between capital investment and revenue realization. We expect this to further improve and positively impact our results as we launch further satellites for our customers in 2026 at an expected cadence of every three months on average. While we encountered unexpected timing impacts from the US Government shutdown and inactions in the back half of the year, I remain confident Spire Global's technology advantage, our expanding capacity and the clear demand for both government and commercial capabilities. I reiterate our commitment to long term double digit sustainable revenue growth. 2025 serves as a year of revenue timing normalization, not a change of growth trajectory, setting up 2026 nicely to reflect the full benefit of capacity, backlog and. Demand already in place.
I am excited about what lies ahead and the value we will continue to build for shareholders. I will now turn it over to Ali who will share our financial results reflecting some of the mentioned revenue timing and accounting effects and our strong backlog and remaining performance obligations which drive our confident growth outlook for 2026.
Thank you Teresa. Before walking through the financials, I want to anchor them to the operating momentum Teresa just described the third quarter reflected strong bookings, growing backlog and expanding on orbit capacity offset by revenue timing impacts related to government delays. Importantly, these results do not reflect any change we see in underlying demand, customer commitments or program execution. I will be discussing non Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) financial measures unless otherwise stated. A reconciliation of Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) to non Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) results is included in our earnings release available on our Investor Relations website. As a reminder, Spire Global's third quarter 2024 results include our maritime business which was sold at the end of April 2025 and had contributed about $40 million of revenue in the prior 12 months all year over year. Comparisons should be viewed in that context. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) revenue for the third quarter of 2025 was $12.7 million. Year over year revenue declined primarily due to the absence of approximately $11.5 million of maritime revenue that was present in the third quarter of 2024 and is no longer part of the business. In addition, approximately 6 to 8 million dollars of revenue shifted out of the quarter due to the timing of milestone based revenue recognition on an existing multi year contract and the uncertainty of award for an Earth observation data contract. First, revenue recognition timing on a multi year contract reduced third quarter revenue by approximately 4 to 5 million dollars. This revenue remains fully contracted and is expected to be recognized in 2026 as we continue to execute and deliver program milestones. Second, we saw a third quarter impact from the uncertainty of a NASA Earth Observation data contract renewal with additional smaller short duration opportunities also deferred. The NASA contract is a contract that Spire Global has successfully delivered for several years with very high customer satisfaction. Taken together, these timing effects shifted a meaningful portion of revenue out of the third quarter but did not reduce the overall value of contracted programs. Non Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) operating loss for the third quarter of 2025 was negative $13.9 million compared to negative $6.1 million in the third quarter of 2024. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $11.8 million compared to negative $3.1 million a year ago. These changes were primarily driven by lower revenue recognized in the quarter as just mentioned, rather than an increasing cost structure of the business excluding the maritime business and certain one time expenses. Operating expenses in the third quarter were down year over year and sequentially reflecting continued cost management. As revenue recognition normalizes, we expect improved absorption of fixed costs and a corresponding improvement in margins. Turning to the balance sheet, Spire utilized $20.4 million of free cash flow in the third quarter and ended the period with $96.8 million of cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities. Cash usage in the quarter reflected revenue timing effects, working capital dynamics related to satellite manufacturing and elevated legal and professional fees. As of the end of the third quarter, our remaining performance obligations are over $200 million, which is over 3 times trailing 12 months revenue. Of this amount, we expect approximately $70 million to to be recognized as revenue in 2026. This backlog reflects multi year contracted programs primarily with government and institutional customers and provides substantial revenue visibility as we move into 2026. For the full year 2025, we now expect revenue in the range of 70.5 to $72.5 million, implying fourth quarter revenue of approximately $14.8 million to $16.8 million. Through November 30, 2025, we have already recognized approximately 10.5 to $11.5 million of fourth quarter revenue. We anticipate full year non Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) operating loss of negative 54.7 million to negative $53.8 million and adjusted EBITDA of negative 42.2 million to negative $41.3 million. For non Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) loss per share, we expect a range of negative $1.98 to negative $1.95, assuming a basic weighted average share count of approximately 30.9 million shares. The company is in the process of completing its 2026 budget with a focus on becoming adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flow break even to positive by no later than Q4. 2026. We are taking a comprehensive look at our cost base to align to our revenue expectations and the sale of the maritime business. More than $10 million of revenue has moved into 2026 due to government delays like the shutdown. This amount relates to programs that remain funded, contracted and operationally underway, with approximately $70 million of this revenue already sitting in remaining performance obligations to be recog 2026. Our 2026 growth is supported by contracts already secured, expanding backlog, and an increase in on orbit capacity that is already deployed or scheduled to be deployed in the first quarter. Given revenue movement out of 2025, we now expect greater than 30% revenue growth in 2026 for the business remaining after the maritime divestiture as in prior years, we plan to provide more comprehensive guidance for 2026 during our earnings call in March. With that, I will turn the call back to the operator for questions.
Thank you. If you'd like to ask a question, please press Star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. Our first question comes from the line of Eric Rasmussen with Stifel. Please proceed with your question.
Yeah, thanks for taking the questions. You know, Theresa, in your prepared remarks, it sounded like there's a lot of opportunities and a lot of development that's happened since our last update. But it so far just doesn't seem like it's translating into the revenue opportunities. I mean, you're looking at, you know, obviously this year's, you know, challenge with some of the timing issues and then the government shutdown. But what gives you the confidence that 30% is the right number for next year for growth? And what are some of the puts and takes that get you there? I mean, Obviously you have 70 million of RPO covered, you know, for next year, but what gets you to even higher than that 30% growth rate?
Yeah, Eric, thanks for that question and you know, thanks for recognizing that there's. Over 10 million that really shifted across the calendar year and that the number. That we're giving is, you know, in excess of 30%. We did have government shutdown stuff, but at the Same time, the U.S. continues. To push on things like the shield. IDIQ that came out in the U.S. There is great urgency to move fast. And move forward with commercial companies. And of course we talk quite a lot about Europe. As you know, I'm based in Europe. I'm involved directly myself in a lot of these conversations. You heard in the prepared remarks about the very large budgets that are coming out of Germany, both from the national side as well as the contributions to ESA. 2025 was really a resetting year for spire. And I would say in Europe as. Well, it was the year that they. Started to get their budgets in order. Understand their priorities, start to look at. Some of the more obvious ways that they spend their money. And 2026 is really where they start to make movement. Everyone we talk to over here has huge urgency and recognizes the importance of. Partnering with commercial entities. So I feel very good that we. Have a lot of momentum going into. 2026 and that we're well positioned. You mentioned the remaining performance obligations. These are things that are contracted, these. Are things that are high manufacturing throughput. And the really big increase in in orbit capacity that we have mean that we can meet both all the existing. Demands as well as the new ones. That we're expecting to come from that pipeline backlog that we have.
Great. And then maybe just staying with One of the two items with NASA, the Earth observation contract, that was around 7 million I think last year. You signed in August time frame and extension. Do you expect that to actually happen? Was it just because of the government shutdown or was there something else that's going on that maybe put, could put that in jeopardy of not, not being renewed?
Yeah, and I think, you know there's, there's a lot of stuff going on at NASA right now in addition to everything that happened with the US government. Shutdown and as you saw from the short term extensions that there, there is a great desire to have access to those data sets with everything that happened in the U.S. it is true that that did not sign. It doesn't mean that it's not signing. It means that there is a delay. While all of this process happens at NASA. And that's really, I think the only. Thing that we can say right now. We don't believe that it's lost. It is not yet signed.
Okay, and then maybe just your cash balance. I remember our last update, you were targeting around 100 million exiting this year. Now you're below that through Q3. How should we think about cash going forward? Is it really just tied to now revenue and revenue growth and the, you passed a lot of the impacts of you know, some professional fees and everything else that was driving up a lot of the more near term spending.
Maybe I'll start and then Allie, if you need to jump in. So I'm going to start by saying. I think we will finish the year with a lot of cash on the balance sheet. We have, you know, a lot of. This has to do with billings coming in the door and having some mismatch. In, in the timing of how all this plays out. The other thing I would mention is that we have still had a number. Of these kind of one time legal and accounting fees that have been happening throughout the year. So maybe Ali, I'll pass it to you to answer more comprehensively.
Sure. Thanks Teresa. Good morning, Eric. Yeah, I mean we definitely finished the balance sheet strong with just under 100 million in cash. You know, we remain debt free. So we feel very good about our balance sheet. And so I do think we will end the year with a strong cash balance and take that into 2026. We do have, as Theresa mentioned, timing issues on payment collections in contracts versus when we execute the work as well as, you know, some continued need for spending around particularly legal fees.
Great, I'll jump back into the queue, thanks.
Thanks Eric.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Van Ree with Craig Hallam Capital Group. Please proceed with your question.
Great, thanks. Thanks for Taking my questions, guys, several. And apologies if I repeat here, I got bumped off the call briefly, but if I take a look at the previous guide to the current guide midpoints, we're taking roughly 19 million out of the second half. How does that. If you had to put some crude sort of numbers to that reduction. Just break that down for me.
You want me to take it, Theresa?
Go ahead.
Yeah, yeah. I mean, I'd say there's about, you know, somewhere, I think we said 6 to 8 million related to a percent complete contract. There's several million related to the Earth observation contract. And I'd say we probably, you know, lost another 6 to 8 million just due to, you know, potential or loss of contracts getting signed due to the government shutdown. That was, you know, kind of an unprecedented length of time at sort of critical end of the year timeframe for us.
Okay.
And the only thing I want to. Add, if I can, Jeff, just to think about it, is, you know, more. Than 10 million of this was stuff that has gotten pushed from a timing perspective into 2026. That takes us, you know, a bit. Below the low end of the guidance. Just to set the context there.
Yeah, the. On the, on the. Can you expand on the percent completion, I think you said just now, 7 million of it is due to that. Just explain that what happened there.
And I can take that, Ellie. So I think, Jeff, as you know, we work across quite a number of. These large programs with government that are. On these new accounting rules with the percent completion. And a lot of that requires interaction. With our government customers and partners through that process. And of course, we are, you know. We are impacted by the timing of those interactions with those government partners, especially under the way that we do the accounting here. So this is something that it shifted. In time across the calendar year. Again, the contracts are in implementation. It's just the timing of it that has moved around.
Okay. You had the substantial Wildfire SAT award, and I believe that you got a smidge of that maybe in Q2, but that should be ramping in Q3. And then you had the, you know, substantial NOAA upsell can. Are both of those still tracking as to your expectations 90 days ago?
They're both still tracking and the team is deeply involved in delivering on both of them. And the Wildfiresat one, of course, we've. Talked about it contributing significantly to revenue in 2026 and in 2027 as we complete implementation.
Okay. And then I know, you know, at least my memory was you had put up the number's 27 if I remember right. But you had a lot of, a lot of satellites going up on the transporter missions 12, 13, 14 earlier this year. And a lot of that by my understanding was mechanical in terms of rev racket and namely once they're up and accepted and live, the revenue turns on any issues with the satellites put up in those transporter missions from a functionality, performance or client acceptance standpoint.
Functions are sat, satellites are functioning, we're collecting data, customers are getting the data. We just had another launch that went up. When was the last transporter? One was like at the end of November, I believe. Our satellite bus and technology is all checked out rapidly. I mentioned in the comment the prepared. Comments that we have in the second. Half of the year even quite dramatically. Improved the speed at which we are able to check out and pass things on once they go in orbit. So I have to say I'm very. Pleased at how that process has gone this year. I think we've done a fantastic job.
I would add onto that, Teresa, that T15 was postponed by want to say, eight weeks. Part of that was also the government shutdown in terms of their ability to be able to launch. And so there was. That went up later than we had anticipated.
Yeah, yeah, I was okay, I got it. Yep. Okay. And then, and then just two other brief ones if I could. Ali on the costs in terms of the expenses that are implied in the Q4 outlook, what exactly would you call unusual in there? I know you got some lingering issues. Congrats. Seems like a light at the end of the tunnel here in terms of being able to just operate the company and not have, you know, sort of lingering restate or just delayed financial issues. But can you talk to just the unusual expenses that are still sitting in that Q4 outlook that we should be aware of?
Yep, it's primarily legal fees related to kind of non operating matters, some professional services fees around, continuing to utilize EY as a support partner on some of our technical matters and you know, some severance as we, you know, continue to work through certain, you know, business realignment post maritime. So those are kind of the categories, Jeff, that we consider for these unusual items.
And are you able to put a number around that basket.
For the fourth quarter? I don't think it's significantly different than the third quarter.
Well, I guess what I'm wondering is I'm just trying to obviously I got to do a 26 model. I'm just wondering what of those are going to recur into the forward year like into Q1 and beyond versus what.
You think goes away, they should definitely decrease in 2026.
Okay. All right. And then just lastly then on the pipeline, you know, we've seen especially in some of these space services contracts from into some of the sort of the new space names, an incredible flow of massive 8, 9 figure deals that are out there, sovereigns, etc. I think you referenced you've got good relations in Germany. I know you've got them elsewhere. Would you maybe take a second and just talk about what I would call some of the megadeals in the pipeline? Are they there, how many, how late stage? Any qualification quantification would be great when you start thinking about like eight and nine figure deals and what you're seeing out there.
Yeah, I think the first comment that I want to make is that you. Have started to see some of these come out and they generally focus on. The first areas where everyone is familiar. When it comes to, you know, either. Talking about telecom or talking about imaging. And that's the first place everyone goes when they start looking at satellites and sovereign capabilities. And then we see all of the RF come next. And we've really seen a big uptick. Even over the past six months in. All of these types of government customers. Being interested in and appreciating the role that RF also has to play. I mean it's all the things that. We'Ve talked about in the other calls and other conversations. So what we are seeing, and I mentioned it briefly in the comments as. Well, is that there is a lot of interest in those types of sovereign capabilities specifically for rf. And there is interest in direct data acquisition of installed capacity and they often piggyback on each other. And I expect that we see movement on all of these conversations happening in 2026. They're all gearing up to start making movements and putting money down.
Okay, great. Thank you for taking my questions.
Thanks Jeff.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Steinhardt with Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.
Great. Hi, this is Andrew on for Austin. Thank you for taking my questions. Just my first question here on the MDA Shield program. Selection of the 19 work areas mentioned in the RFP, which specifically was SPIRE selected as a potential provider for and I guess since the MDA cut over 1400 companies from the proposal list, can you detail what the selection process was like?
I have to admit that I am not the expert deep in the details of that IDIQ Shield contract win that we have. We have a federal team that is. Focused on that and I feel Very. Good that we're in all the right conversations there. But I cannot directly myself detail in which all of the work areas.
Allie, do you know that? But I think we would have to come back to you with that type of detail after checking with our federal team. Yeah, Ben and I were just caucusing. We don't have the detail in front of us. Apologies for that, Andrew.
No, no worries, I guess. Would you. Would you be able to speak to the Shield program at all? I mean, like maybe quantifying what portion of the $151 billion total contracting vehicle could be applicable to Spire?
Honestly, I don't think I'm prepared to do that yet. And I'm not totally sure that anyone fully knows. I think the only thing that I can tell you is that we've already been having conversations with the right people. Post the award of that IDIQ contract. And I think it is just a. Testament to our strength and ability to really be a key partner in how this plays out. What we're doing with our Boulder manufacturing. Facility is really important. I think the investments we're making on the kind of cybersecurity and infrastructure resilience side are important. And I think it can also be. Some signaling as you start to see the European Space Shield effort that we're going to start to hear about next year as well.
Gotcha. I appreciate that. And I guess just a follow up here. Could you provide an update on the SEC subpoena and how the response is going there?
There's really not anything much to share other than we're just continuing to work through the process. Andrew.
Gotcha. I'll pass it back there.
Thanks.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Chris Quilty with Quilty Space. Please proceed with your question. Thanks.
Just wanted to get a little clarification. I think you mentioned the impact of the government shutdown and sort of revenue shifting in 25 and 26. Can you give us a sense of what the mix, the contribution mix of government will be and probably at the end of 26 since a good portion of the growth next year of the 30% growth that's coming from government. On. A pro forma basis?
Ellie, maybe you can take that one while I answer in generality.
First for you, Chris, is that, you know, we talked about the Earth observation contract that is not yet signed and you know, is in a delayed period. And that, you know, as someone already mentioned, is delivery of data really quick direct revenue as we deliver every month.
So that that had an impact on us. You know, normally that is a $7 million contract for us. We also, as Ellie mentioned, did have.
The delay of that transporter launch, which. As those go up and things get. Out and operational, there is a certain portion of we start delivering data that translates into revenue.
And then there are other things that.
Just didn't get signed in the quarter. During the government shutdown piece, we overall talked about more than 10 million that is shifted from 2025 into 2026. And we're not giving direct guidance for 2026 right now. That will come in the March period.
Other than to say that we feel.
Very comfortable saying in excess of 30% year on year revenue growth. And yes, government will continue to be an important portion of that. Allie, I don't know if you have. Anything that you want to add that is more detailed than that.
No, I think you covered the highlights, Theresa. Okay. And maybe if I could reframe it in a different way. When you think about what types of applications or which applications are going to be the biggest drivers in 26, is it more on weather programs? Is it on the space services business? Is it the radio frequency mapping or does some of the aircraft tracking start to pick up just in terms of raw revenue or, or even dollar contribution?
Yeah. So what I can tell you is.
All of those areas I consider incredibly. Important and contributing to our revenue growth. We talked about the 70 million already. That is kind of contracted. And then we just deliver on it while we, you know, and then start. To recognize the revenue. Aviation, you know, has generally been our. Smallest business, but it continues to be important. It continues to be important as we. Deliver on the Uriello program, which generates revenue for us. And on the weather, the weather side. With noaa, we continue to build out. That relationship and see NOAA leaning in. Towards commercial partnerships, you know, across a variety of areas. So I do think that that NOAA relationship will continue to be important. So on the, on the civil rights. Side of things, I do think that radio frequency geolocation is going to be an important part of that growth. And that can be either delivery of. Data sets directly from the capacity that we have on orbit. And then when you start to talk about areas where we have a presence. We have the local manufacturing capability, then you start to talk about sovereign capabilities which, you know, might fit more in the space services category. Gotcha. Also, a question on a statement you had earlier in the script, you mentioned that you basically doubled the production on the same headcount, just generically, was that, you know, what were the factors driving the efficiency? Was it you know, outsourcing? Was it vertical integration? Was it AI printing? Yeah, I mean, it was. We mentioned these phrases, design for manufacturability and lean principles. So a lot of it was things like looking at the flow of how. We did things, looking at how we did the testing, what was the timing of testing, how did we use the time? Otherwise when we had some satellites in certain testing facilities, how did we do. The timing then inside the clean room, how did the actual engineers who designed things interact with the people doing the manufacturing? So it's a lot about how they. Better managed and led the whole flow inside the clean room. And I think when we start, this is a process that has begun and we had talked about a lot even. At the beginning of the year around the scaling and efficiency aspects. And I'm really proud of the team of having done this without adding cost to it. But I don't think we're done in pulling efficiency out of that system. And there are a lot of these other things like you mentioned, that can. Help us keep doing that in the future. But what we did this year, I. Would say is basic lean manufacturing and closer integration between the design teams and the maintenance team manufacturers. Gotcha. And when you say operating cash flow positive exiting 26, do you see any change in the CAPEX profile of the business and when should we look at free cash flow?
Definitely we see lower CAPEX needs right now in our preliminary 2026 planning. And that's both spire funded CapEx as well as customer funded CapEx. And so, you know, we are obviously very focused on becoming operating and free cash flow positive. I think we've got to get over the operating cash flow first and then, and then go from there. But we are seeing a lower level of projected spend right now where we're at in the 2026 planning process.
Great, Thanks a bunch. Thanks, Chris.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our Q and A session and will conclude our call today. We thank you for your interest and participation. You may now disconnect your lines.