CNH Industrial reports 5% revenue decline in Q3, emphasizes strategic investments and future product launches amid ongoing tariff impacts and uncertain market conditions.

Good morning and welcome to the CNH 2025 Third Quarter Results Conference call. All participants are in a listen only mode. After the speaker's remarks, we will have a question and answer session. To ask a question at this time you will need to press STAR followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Jason Omerza, Vice President of Investor Relations.

Thank you Julianne and hello everyone. We would like to welcome you to CNH Industrial's third quarter earnings presentation for the period ending September 30, 2025. This live webcast is copyrighted by CNH Industrial and any recording, transmission or other use of any portion of it without the written consent of CNH Industrial is strictly prohibited. Hosting today's call are CNH Industrial CEO Garrett Marks and CFO Jim Nicholas. They will reference the material available for download from our website. Please note that any forward looking statements that we make during today's call are subject to the risks and uncertainties mentioned in the Safe Harbor Statement included in the presentation material. Additional information pertaining to factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the Company's most recent Annual report on Form 10K, as well as other periodic reports and filings with the U.S. securities and Exchange Commission. Our presentation includes certain non GAAP financial measures. Additional information, including reconciliations to the most directly comparable US GAAP financial measures is included in the presentation material. I will now turn the call over to Garrett Marks.

Thank you Jason and welcome to everyone joining the call. Our third quarter ended in an evolving world of global trade, but with progress along our articulated priorities to lighten channel inventory, reduce our quality and product costs, break new ground across our lineup of Iron and technology, and build a solid foundation for Our recently announced 2030 mid-cycle margin commitment. Since the very early days of our industry, farmers have seen many cycles and shifts in global trade, some even larger and more disruptive than this one. As we look forward beyond the current cycle, it is certain that most arable lands around the world will be used for technology led crop production and livestock farming to feed the growing population, even if it requires growing different crops. As the only other truly global full line agriculture machinery provider, CNH Industrial is going to play an even larger role in helping feed the world. As we will showcase next week during our Tech Day at the Agritechnica Fair in Hannover, Germany, we are thoughtfully transforming our global supply chain footprint and dealer network to mitigate the risks of further volatility that may emerge in our industry. With this clear direction in mind, we have maintained the overall low levels of production that we initiated in the third quarter of 2024 to help reduce CNH Industrial dealer inventories and clear aged products while still defending and in some cases growing market shares. Both ag and construction production was flattish year over year, but large ag Production was down 10% while small ag was mostly up. Our ag dealers new inventory levels saw another sequential decline of over $200 million, putting them on track to achieve our targeted levels over the next three to four months. Our North American dealers used inventory also saw another sequential decline in the quarter. While it's all good news for CNH Industrial Industrial, market fundamentals remain uncertain and challenging for our farmers and it is difficult to say if we will enter 2026 with more visibility or even more momentum. Conditions in South America and Brazil in particular continue to be a headwind for our farmers. While we had expected to see this region as the first to emerge from the downturn, the difficult geopolitical and market circumstances have persisted. Similarly, conditions in North America have been difficult for farmers as they see the global trade shifts impact their very own operating bottom line. Even with the recent announcements around the trade deal with China, material subsidies for farmers in their different forms are needed while the leveling of the global trade playing field is progressing. So in the meantime, we use all these shifts, changes and drags on global framework condition as an opportunity to invest our resources in building a better and higher performing CNH Industrial Industrial. During these slow quarters we can prepare for upcoming product launches and define new ways of working more efficiently. This business has always been very cyclical and maintaining a through cycle perspective on what matters accompanied with consistently delivering profits and cash flows make all the difference. We are advancing our investments in Iron and technology all the way to agricultural AI applications for our digital farm management system Field Ops. We continue to take obsolete costs out of the operations to improve our underlying margin profile outside of the near term tariff impacts. And we continue to make progress on our new Go to Market Network development strategy with regionally important steps to emerge over the next year. So while we thoughtfully navigate near term challenges, our focus remains on investing in the business to secure leading positions across all our major markets. In full alignment with our Board of Directors, we are pursuing the path we laid out on May 8 with determination and a healthy dose of flexibility. As we navigate near term challenges, we are CNH Industrial and we will deliver. With that, let's turn to the results. As expected and projected, our Q3 results now reflect the delayed impact of tariffs on our costs which did not yet have a material impact in Q2. As a reminder, we introduced additional pricing adjustments effective with new orders received after May 1st, and we also started to see some of that benefit in Q3. It is our intention that we will eventually offset all the tariff cost impacts through cost mitigation, structure realignments and pricing actions in 2025. However, we are absorbing some of the impact alongside our suppliers, network, partners, farmers and builders as we navigate these new trade realities. The changed conditions for purchased components and shipped machines impact the entire industry and relative differences in exposure and footprint will impact near term results differently. 2026 will be a year of alignments and adjustments for our industry and we expect those to play out fully for the 2027 season. Consolidated revenues for the quarter were down 5% at $4.4 billion. Our Global Ag segment sales were down 11% with North America down 29%, but EMEA up 16%. While the geographic mix shift has a negative effect on our margins, it is encouraging to see some bright spots in EMEA sales, particularly tractors, especially in Eastern Europe and in the Middle east and to some extent also in Germany. Some of our product launches to be revealed next week in Hanover are precisely targeted to fill gaps and gain more ground in those markets for CNH Industrial Industrial. We will explain these step changes in greater detail next week. Industrial EBIT was Industrial adjusted EBIT was $104 million, down 69% compared to last year, mainly reflecting the impacts of lower industry demand and tariffs and geographic mix Adjusted net income was $109 million with adjusted EPS for the quarter at $0.08. While the markets are not helpful to our farmers, growers and builders these days, we remain more committed than ever to strengthening the company and prioritizing long term value creation. Our company strategy is centered around five key strategic pillars Expanding product leadership Advancing our iron and tech integration Driving commercial excellence, Operational excellence and quality. As a mindset, these pillars remain front and center to ensure we stay aligned with our long term strategic objectives and our team remains focused and united in our shared purpose to feed and build the world we all live in. Today I would like to focus on. A few of these items that demonstrate our commitment to the future while we turn the challenges of the present into opportunities for the future. First, in the area of expanding product leadership, I'm revisiting a chart that we showed at our Investor Day in May. It shows a sample of our extensive product offering across many different farming applications at the 2025 Agritechnica show show. Next week we will be unveiling several new products highlighted here with key launches across our tractor and hay and forage lineup. Furthermore, we will be launching significant upgrades across our full product portfolio in terms of both iron and technology. Stay tuned as more news will be revealed about these products next week, but we are very excited about the advancements that we are making here. Speaking of Agritechnica show, in advance of the show, we received two Innovation Award Silver medals for our Corn Header Automation and ForageCam. The Corn Header Automation system uses advanced AI and automation to enhance corn harvesting which ultimately results in more high quality grain in the tank. ForageCam uses a camera to instantly analyze crop flow and kernel fragments and delivering real time kernel processing scores and helping to boost livestock nutrition. These technologies, which deliver significant agronomic advantages, demonstrate how CNH Industrial continues to deliver the tools and innovations that create the most value and the greatest impact for farmers. We have transformed how we think about quality within CNH Industrial. We are taking a 360 degree view of quality spanning product development, supply chain manufacturing and our dealer network. Let me give you a few examples. We have embedded quality into everything we do and our suppliers are a big part of that. Through our Strategic Sourcing program, we are selecting suppliers who meet our stringent quality standards. These collaborative partnerships yield more reliable, durable parts that directly enhance our machine's performance. In an industry downturn, it's tempting to focus only on the purchase price of our components, but we are maintaining a holistic view of of quality throughout the sourcing process. While we still take cost out from our purchased goods, programs that we piloted at our Racine plant such as No Fault Forward and Dynamic Vehicle Validation Testing are now being deployed at other facilities. I'm happy to report that as measured by our dealers, we are now achieving the highest delivered quality scores for our large tractors that we have seen in over a decade. Our dealers recognize the difference and our customers are seeing it too. We never want to have machine downtime, but when problems do occur, our motto is fix right first time. Our Diagnostic AI Tech Assistant tool is providing dealer technicians with real time insights at their fingertips. It has significantly reduced the time it takes to identify solutions and and we see that in our Dealer Help Desk efficiency. We already see the benefits in our bottom line. Year to date, we have reduced our quality costs by over $60 million and there's a lot more to go as we discussed during the Investor day. But perhaps more importantly, this commitment to a quality mindset reinforces the trust our customers have in our brand and lays the foundation for achieving a higher net price realization for new and used machines. Over time with that, I will now turn the call over to Jim to take us through the details of our financial results.

Thank you Garrett Third quarter industrial net sales were $3.7 billion down 7% year over year, mainly driven by decreased agriculture shipment volumes on lower industry demand compounded by reduced ag dealer inventory requirements. Adjusted net income decreased by nearly 2/3 with adjusted diluted earnings per share down from 24 to 8 cents. The decrease was mainly due to lower sales levels, tariff impacts, unfavorable geographic mix and increased risk costs in Financial Services. Q3 Free cash flow from industrial activities was an outflow of $188 million roughly in line with Q3 last year as the lower year over year EBIT was offset by better net working capital and cash taxes. Agriculture Q3 net sales were just under $3 billion down 10% year over year driven by the 29% decrease in our higher margin North American market where we are experiencing both a weak retail demand coupled with dealer inventory destocking. The year over year net sales increase in the Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA region) region was mostly driven by higher demand in Eastern Europe and in Middle East Africa. Pricing was favorable overall with North America positive 3% and which starts to include some tariff related price adjustments. This was partially offset by some negative pricing in South America where we have seen aggressive competitive incentives. Third quarter adjusted gross margin was 20.6% down from 22.7% in Q3 2024 affected by the lower volumes, tariff costs and unfavorable geographic mix partially offset by purchasing efficiencies and lower warranty expenses. Product costs were favorable $33 million year over year despite including $45 million of unfavorable tariff costs after FIFO inventory offsets. Manufacturing and warranty quality costs were lower by 44 million in the quarter with supply chain efficiencies making up the remainder of the favorable year over year result. So despite the tariff headwind we are making good progress on our underlying margin improvement initiatives and this remains central to Our Path to 2030 strategy. We'll provide a more thorough progress report on our long term goals during our Q4 call. SG&A expenses were $36 billion higher than in the third quarter last year, mainly due to higher variable compensation accruals in 2025 and labor inflation. As a reminder, we took out over 10% of our white collar headcount in late 2023 and early 2024 and since then the levels have been essentially flat while we work on improving our organizational effectiveness. Adjusted EBIT margin for agriculture was 4.6% a sequential decline from Q2 2025 levels as a result of the increase in tariffs in our normal quarterly business seasonality. CNH Industrial enjoys the distinction of being the most geographically balanced of all the Ag OEMs in terms of our sales mix, and we've been profitable in every region of the world so far this year despite the consistently depressed markets. We expect that trend to continue in the fourth quarter. The Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA region) region is weaker than north and South America in terms of margins, but we know what needs to be done to raise its profitability profile. Many of the improvements discussed at our Investor day, such as improving dealer network presence and improving operating performance, along with the product launches mentioned by Garrett earlier, are designed to improve the fortunes of the Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA region) region. With our focus on this critical area that will yield benefits for the entire agricultural segment. Construction third quarter net sales were $739 million, up 8% year over year, driven by higher sales in North America and emea. The increase is mainly due to the low sales level last year as we had cut production aggressively in 2024. Gross margin for the quarter was 14.5%, down from 16.6% in Q3 2024, mainly as a result of the tariffs. Purchasing and manufacturing efficiencies of 12 million favorable were more than offset by 26 million of tariff costs. It's important to point out that we seem to have been a bit more aggressive on price increases as a result of the tariffs than we have seen from our competitors like in agriculture, construction, SG&A was unfavorable due to variable compensation accruals and labor inflation. We closed the third quarter with an adjusted EBIT margin of 1.9%. I would also like to note that earlier this week we finalized our previously announced plan to stop production at a construction plant in Burlington, Iowa by the second quarter of 2026 due to declining demand and underdue utilization. Production will be moved to other existing CNH Industrial facilities, including our plant in Wichita, Kansas. This is part of Construction's manufacturing optimization effort that was discussed at the Investor day. Moving TO Financial Services third quarter net income was $47 million. The $31 million year over year decrease was driven by higher risk costs in Brazil, partially offset by better margins in all regions. Retail originations in the third quarter were $2.7 billion, down 6% year over year, reflecting the lower equipment sales environment. The managed portfolio ended the quarter at $28.5 billion. The wholesale portfolio is down nearly $1.5 billion since 12 months ago on a constant currency basis, mainly driven by the lower dealer inventory levels, while credit collection rates have been relatively steady in most regions. Despite the market downturn, we, along with others in the industry, are experiencing persistent delinquencies in Brazil. Accordingly, we increased our credit reserves again in the quarter. We believe that our reserves are adequate and we're working with farmers in the region so they can continue to operate their farms and pay for their equipment. Our experience from past cycles is that most farmers in delinquent status will eventually catch up on their commitments, but this increase in risk reserves is a needed measure while observing how the market environment unfolds. Our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged. We will continue to reinvest in our business while maintaining a healthy balance sheet. During the third quarter, we repurchased $50 million worth of C and H stock at an average price of $11.25 per share. Before I turn the call back to Garrett, I want to give you an update on our net tariff assumptions for this year as well as a view of the gross run rate impact of the tariffs. The numbers on this page reflect the expanded Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs which were not factored into our previous guidance, and reflect that China tariffs will be lowered by 10 percentage points on Monday. For 2025, we estimate the net impact of agriculture at around $100 million at the midpoint and construction at $40 million at the midpoint. In the fourth quarter that will be around $60 million for ag and 20 million for construction. In the short term, we're working diligently to offset as much of the tariff impact as we can. This includes collaborating with our suppliers to identify alternative sourcing options and consuming pre tariff inventories. The price adjustments implemented to date do not fully offset the gross tariff impact as we have chosen to share the burden alongside our suppliers, network partners, farmers and builders. While the trade environment is In Flux, the 2025 impact is only a partial year impact as the ramp up in tariff levels and our FIFO accounting pushed most of the impact into the second half. If we annualize the gross impacts still at 2025 volumes, we estimate approximately $250 million of impact in agriculture and $125 impact in construction. That is approximately 200 basis points of agriculture margin headwind and 425 basis points of construction margin headwind. I'm only showing the gross cost run rate impact here because, as Garrett said, we do intend to be able to fully offset the tariff impact over the long run. We will take advantage of our ongoing strategic sourcing program to identify the right suppliers with a global footprint to help us identify the most favorable countries of origin. Likewise, we will leverage our global manufacturing footprint to identify the ideal production locations and ultimately we will pass through the remaining incremental costs through our pricing and has been done across the industry in the past. Our 2030 margin targets will not be jeopardized by the tariffs. With that update, I will turn it back to Garrett.

Thank you Jim and now let's review our latest outlook for agriculture in 2025. Global industry retail demand is expected to be down around 10% from 2024. We have narrowed our net sales guidance as we approach the end of the year. Full year pricing would be positive about 1% and there is no expected currency translation impact. We have also updated our margin guidance. As you recall, last quarter we said that margins would likely fall somewhere below the midpoint and the guidance. However, since our last call, additional section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum were introduced. As such, our revised guidance now reflects those tariffs as well as the geographic mix shift between North America and Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) and product mix between large ag and small ag. The Section 232 tariffs will impact all players in the industry, whether their components are imported or locally sourced. As domestic steel and aluminum prices will rise as well, we expect to recover those impacts through pricing of our products in construction. Overall industry retail volumes are expected to be down about 5% from 2024. As with Ag, we have also narrowed our net sales outlook for the year and lowered our margin expectations. We are still working on our 2026 industry estimates and we need to see how some of the larger market players react on pricing before we are able to find finalize an opinion here with a narrow sales estimate. Dynack and Construction we are guiding total industry net sales to down 10 to 12% year over year, with margins reflective of the net tariff exposure between 3.4 to 3.9%. Free cash flow is now expected in the 200 to $500 million range. EPS is now forecasted to be between 44 and 50 cents, again reflecting the latest net tariff impacts. I will end our prepared remarks by looking at our priorities for the remainder of the year as we close out 2025 and position ourselves for success in a likely transition year in 2026. We are carefully observing the different leading demand indicators. At the same time, while we are dealing with a rapidly changing trade environment, we are working very closely with our network partners and suppliers to ensure that we are responsive to ongoing shifts in the market. We are taking orders for model year 2026 products now at new prices, reflecting another round of cost recovery. Each region has their own cadence for order collection, typically North America ahead of the other regions. Production order slots are full for the remainder of 2025 and we are about half full for the first quarter of 2026. Some products in some regions are a bit further out than that. North America's Q1 slots are already full, for example. We are monitoring order collection closely to understand overall industry retail demand in 2026 and to make the appropriate shifts in our production cadence when needed. Besides our order collection, other factors that we are evaluating include commodity prices, stocks to use ratios, progress on trade deals, especially a finalization of the recently announced agreement between the United States and China, clarity on renewable fuel standards in the US Used inventory levels and their values, and competitive pricing dynamics. As of right now, we would expect global industry retail demand to be flat to possibly slightly down in 2026 when compared to 2025. That likely includes Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) being slightly up North America slightly down in Large Egg and South America and Asia Pacific somewhere in between. As year end approaches, we'll assess market developments to refine our industry forecast with greater precision. As I discussed earlier, we will continue to produce at our current low levels through the end of 2025 and likely into the beginning of 2026, given continued soft demand. Our North American dealers are on pace to achieve our inventory targets for new equipment within the next few months, whereas improving sentiment in Europe will allow dealers to increase their stocks somewhat. Like our continued dedication to investing in the future through IRN and Tech R and D, we are not taking our eyes off our margin improvement initiatives regardless of the market environment. We are maintaining our relentless focus on our homework and executing the cost management strategy that we presented to you in May. We are pursuing productivity improvements and the strategic sourcing program to drive further cost reductions with a particular focus on delivering the highest quality products to our customers. I want to reiterate what Jim said our 2030 targets are not jeopardized by the current trade environment or status of the ag cycle. Things are very positive for CNH Industrial and during times like these, continuity, true dedication and consistent execution are more than ever important. At our Tech Days next week we will exhibit our latest products, technology, applications and solutions. We are excited to show you how our technology evolves to serve farmers on their fields and to preserve their soil health. Our solutions help them rise to everyday challenges, particularly the unexpected ones. We hope to see you in person, Hannover or connected to the webcast. That concludes our prepared remarks and we are ready for The Q and A.

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session of the call. To ask a question at this time you'll need to press STAR followed by the number one on your telephone keypad to allow time for as many participants as possible. Please limit yourself to one question and then return to the queue for any follow ups. We'll take our first question from Kristin Owen from Oppenheimer. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Hi, good morning. Thank you so much for the question, or I suppose good afternoon. Now, a lot of discussion this morning on the Ag margin bridge and you hit on some of the points, but I'll ask you to articulate on three particular items that stood out to us. First, can I ask you on the decremental margin margin on the volume mix, how much of that was the decline in North America as the total percent and how should we think about that decremental margin going forward? The second item here is on the SGA and the $37 million drag. And then finally I'll just ask you to unpack some of the product costs, puts and takes tariffs versus some of that underlying quality work that you addressed. I realize there's a lot there, but appreciate you addressing that bridge. Thank you.

Yes.

Okay. Hey Kristen, happy to answer those questions. The decremental in Ag was really driven by the declining sales in North America. 29% decline in North America, EMEA up 16%. So you've got a fairly sizable geographic mix element in there. SGA did grow. So that's what both parts of your question here. The Ag ebit margin declined. 12% of that decline was from higher SG and a due to the variable compensation. So last year very low bonus accruals. This year normalized rate of bonus accruals is being accrued. So you've got the SGA growth tariffs were a meaningful portion of that as well. Then geographic mix I mentioned. And then to a lesser extent our Ag JVs are delivering lower profits this quarter than they did a year ago. So those are the four primary buckets. If you take those out, you're back to normalized 25, 30% decremental. So that answers the Ag question. Garrett.

Yeah, I just would like to on the first point on the mixed point, Christian, I would like to add that in Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) particularly the tractor segment was up while the harvesting segment was still behind in the overall mix. And I think as you might recall, we are by strong on tractors. We are particularly pronounced on harvesting equipment and I mean large combines. So that was in another. It's not a Regional mix. It's like an in region product mix to some extent. And as Jim and I, you know, alluded to is Europe is Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) is for us from a marginality, a trailing region. It's actually at the bottom. And we have launched quite some substantial turnaround and restructuring actions across the region starting as well from the product side that you will see next week in order to regain momentum and share in a region that shall be no weaker than any of our margins in north or South America. So this is very much in focus and we are going to talk you through those things next week when we stand in front of our lovely new product lineup with tractors that serve segments that we never had. Okay, so high horsepower mid range tractors we never had. And now we have and we show that next next week as a, as another measure to turn around Europe.

Yep. And then, and then continuing to answer your question. So the product cost unpacking, that really is 33 million of favorable product costs, including 44 million of tariff costs. So without the tariffs, that number would have been 77 million. Favorability, that breaks down as 44 million in quality improvements, 17 million in purchasing and manufacturing improvements, and 60 million of other improvements. So that sort of, I think, shows the good work we've been doing on our path to 2030 from an operational perspective. The tariffs, of course, are a headwind that weren't there previously. Tariffs are growing a bit in Q4. Q4, we expect tariff costs to be 60 million in Ag and 20 million in Construction Equipment (Construction Equipment (CE)). But we'll give you a more detailed breakdown of the full year cost improvements toward our investor day targets when we report out in Q4. So I think that addressed all three of your questions.

Our next question comes from Angel Castillo from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Hi, good afternoon and thanks for taking my question. Just two factors impacting fiscal year 26 that I was hoping to get a little bit more color on. First, you know, in terms of the annualized tariff gross headwind that you laid out, I just want to triple check. I guess it seems to me rough math, but that implies maybe a 2 to 3% kind of incremental headwind in terms of your North America sales next year. So just one, is that correct? And kind of second, you know, based on pricing you're putting out through your orders right now for next year and the preliminary kind of cost inflation you see, I guess how much of that 2 to 3% do you think you can offset via pricing versus other kind of cost initiatives that you laid out and how much do you, you know, basically do you already have covered versus you? You still need to go out and. Get and you know, kind of enact. Initiatives and then the second piece of fiscal year 26, just under production, what. Gives you confidence in being able to. Achieve desired dealer levels in three to four months and you know, basically how much more inventory do you need to kind of work down and how much of a tailwind that could be next year?

That'd be helpful. Yeah, let me, let me tackle the first one, Angel. So the, I think you're about right on the, on the headwind effect of the tariffs percent, the basis point headwind and the pricing that we put out. If you couple the tariff costs with normal inflation costs, the list price growth that we put out is not adequate to cover 100% of the tariff cost. However, we're working to. Over the course. Of 2026, we'll be working to cover that, you know, through various means, further cost cutting and there's also we can we adjust our discounting to some degree as well to maybe help offset. So from a list price perspective, not there, but through other actions we'll be endeavoring to get through throughout the course of 2026. And as it relates to the production question.

Yeah, and relating to the production question, when we look at 2026, and it's consistent with what we, I think said also during the last one or two calls is we expect that the production pace equals retail pace and in next year we expect in terms of production hours versus 2026 production hours over 25 production hours to be up around mid single digit percentages basically across all regions, across all products. Because we do see as we mentioned, that we will achieve the target of about one billion inventory reduction in 2025. That gets us to a much better place by this year end. So we plan to increase production hours next year and that might entail even a further inventory reduction at the same time if needed. And that is not a general statement across the world because as I mentioned earlier, I mean it may show signs of momentum in some markets, which means depending on where we are in the season, that we are going to stock up some machines in those markets. Again depending on the season, while we have here and there still some pockets of machines where we might continue to see a further destocking next year. But in large we have achieved the target of 1 billion destocking this year over the next couple of months. And with that we see space now to restart production in the mid single digit up.

Our next question Comes from Tammy Zakaria from JP Morgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Hi, good morning. Thank you so much. Wanted to touch on tariffs a little more. Is there a way to think about how much of the total tariff cost you Quantified? I think 205 to 225 million. How much of that is tied to IPA versus section 232 versus the baseline? Should the industry get some relief from any Supreme Court ruling in the coming weeks, months. Just wanted to get some sense what could be the opportunity there.

Yeah, about 20% of the tariff costs are from section 232. So any relief is granted. That'd be wonderful. We're not counting on that or basically taking that into our plans at this point. But we'll waiting to see where that goes.

Our next question comes from Kyle Menges from Citi. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Thank you. I wanted to follow up on some of the pricing comments. The comments that maybe you've been a little bit more aggressive on price increases versus competitors this year and just how that's influencing how your pricing model year 26 machines as your order opening order books for next year. Curious what the customer feedback has been on pricing as you start to price model year 26 machines and feedback on maybe where you're priced versus competitors in some of your different markets as you're opening order books for next year. Thank you. Yeah.

Hey, just to clarify, Kyle, where we were more quick to raise prices was on the construction side where we didn't see really much else happening with our competitors. So we were probably out in front on that one. As it relates to Ag, I would say we're 3 to 4% list price we put out there for the early order program. That's, that's translating well. We think that's where the market is and we're it seems to be working as planned and you can see it from our production slots being filled. You know, that's, it's encouraging. It's tracking as we would have expected. So that's, that's lined up, I'd say so. Construction, pricing, we're a little bit more aggressive on increases. I think we're in line with the market and that seems to be have been well received by the market.

Our next question comes from Jamie Cook from Truist Securities. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Hi, good morning. Just, I mean if you look at.

Your guide, your fourth quarter sales implies. You know, we're finally up year over year versus decline. So I'm just trying to think about that in the backdrop for 2026 it sounds like you broadly think industry demand is sort of flattish and ag different pockets obviously and construction is probably up. Just trying to think of the company specific items that you can control and you know to what degree do you think your earnings could grow next year in a flat market as like, you know, next year you would produce in line with retail demand or potentially better, you know quality should be an incremental savings potentially supply chain I guess tariffs a headwind but just the big you know, puts and takes there of the things that you can control to hopefully get us comfortable or maybe not that that 2025 would represent the trough of earnings. Thank you.

Yeah, great question Jamie. So the production increases that Garrett outlined in 2026 are not because the industry is rebounding, it's because we're producing closer to retail. So under producing less than than we did in 2025. So we will get some absorption benefit from that from the higher production rates. We will of course continue and amplify our ID 2025 targets that we put out around quality around supply chain efficiencies. The those areas are sort of working. We're seeing it strategic sourcing. These are all things that are coming through as we talked about in Q3. We expect those to keep growing and building. So those are the sources of of tailwinds that we're looking towards. And the headwind that you point out is the one that we have less control over in the short term and that's tariffs. So as I mentioned on my question when I answered angel, we'll be looking for ways to help offset those tariff costs but those right now are probably the most significant headwinds we've got to grapple with.

Our next question comes from Stephen Fisher from ubs. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Thanks. Good morning. Just maybe to follow up on that, I'm just curious what the drivers are of the smaller declines in revenue guidance. For 2025 and maybe some of the. Regional color on what you have embedded for Q4. It seems like AG overall looks like it's implying around 4% growth and construction and perhaps in the mid teens. So just a little color on those changes and what's implied.

Thank you. Yeah, so in ag, EMEA will continue to be more strongly performing versus other regions and construction industries also equipment should also be the one driving for that. The end markets there have been improving and so those are the two areas where we see the sales growth coming from. Part of it also is the we're Producing, we're under producing retail less in Q4 on the AG side. That would also help above and beyond sort of the EMEA improvement. So hopefully that answers your question, Stephen.

Our next question comes from Tim Thien from Raymond James. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Great, thank you. Maybe just coming back to the concept of production versus retail in 26 and we covered a lot of ground there earlier but I just want to make sure I heard correctly with respect to large AG in North America. As I think back in recent months and you know, the commentary for 25 is suggested that many cases where inventory was a bit heavier, it was more on the small AG side. So I would, I would assume that that gives you more of a, of a production tailwind as we're thinking about into 26. That is if there's, there's more upside pressure to production, it would be on the large side versus small. Just given the fact that more of the inventory issue has been on the small AG in North America. So again, kind of bouncing around ideas here, but is that a fair kind of characterization as we think about the outlook, potential outlook for production in North America split between large versus small?

Yeah, I think you're directionally correct. Will be a few percentage points in the current planning will be a few percentage points higher in large AG than in small ag when we look at production hours 26 over 25.

Our next question comes from Daniela Costa from, pardon me, Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Hi, good afternoon. I have follow up on the what's implied for Q4 in the guidance because most years we have a negative seasonality into Q4. I understand you have a little bit of delivery growth here, but even when we have delivery growth, we tend to have negative. And you mentioned you don't offset the tariffs entirely. They're higher in Q4 and there's sort.

Of all the other headwinds. So can you walk us a little bit through the tailwinds that drive you. To a better than usual seasonality in Q4? Thank you.

Yeah, yeah, good question. From the margin perspective, the improvement versus history is we've got again line of sight to improvement in quality costs and our manufacturing costs. So we're looking for good product cost improvement in Q4. And of course those are, those are growing. So that's something we're expecting when you compare it versus 2024 levels. So everything we talked about before, the ID 2025 targets we put out, those initiatives are underway. They're delivering. We expect that to continue in Q4.

Our next question comes from Meg Dobre from Baird, please. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Thanks. Just a clarification, if I may. I'm a little bit confused about the moving pieces to the guidance here. So I'm looking at slide 17, right? So if I look there on an. 11% revenue decline, used to expect 6.5% margin. Now on an 11% revenue decline, we're. Looking at something more like 3.7% margin. So just the rough math would be we're cutting ebit here by 430 million, give or take. And this is all second half of 2025. What are the moving pieces here? Because as I understand the tariff assumptions. That alone does not account for this move.

So maybe specifically within this, what dollar figure is associated with tariffs and what are some of the other elements here? Yeah, it's a good question. So page 17 is corporate, right? The entire enterprise. What's not broken out there is the mix effect. So we've got construction, the CE business sales growing. Those are incredibly low margins. So not happy with where those are at. But that's not delivering margin with those earnings or that revenue. And the AG business is not growing at the same pace. So you're seeing a within a segment between segment mix happening there. So that's. That also explains why the industrial activities incrementals were so poor in this quarter. CE sales were up, AG sales were down. And that has that same dynamic. So that's what you're seeing. Part of what you're seeing on page 17 is what we experienced in Q3 and that will continue in Q4.

Our next question comes from Mike Schliske from DA Davidson. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Hello and thank you.

It sounds like as you've been saying, you're a few months away from getting to the right level of new inventories in the channel. Are you also a few months away on the used inventory side? Just update us on what's happening there. And is that the point where both new end user are at decent levels or optimal levels? We'll start to see your wholesale sales be above your retail sales and some kind of restocking again happening at the dealership level. Yeah, great question, Mike. So I think we've seen good success on dealer on the used inventory side. I think there's been three quarters in a row for C&H ag dealers, declines in the used inventory. So we're pleased with that trend. I wouldn't say it's done at the end of this year though, it's still higher than Historical norms would, would imply. And so I think there's more work to be done there. That's always been less of a concern for us though. I think it's more of a, maybe a broader industry concern. Not as big a concern for CNH and CNH dealers, but it's higher than we'd like. We're making progress over the last three quarters. We think it'll continue, but we won't be done. That effort won't be done in a Q4.

Our next question comes from Joel Jackson from BMO Capital Market. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Hi, thanks for taking the question. Definitely. A couple months ago there was some. Optimism I know expressed by the management. Team around South America may be turning wasn't clear but there was an optimism a couple months out later. Now as you mentioned earlier, you know. The optimism has sort of died down a bit. Can you talk about what you're thinking then and what you're thinking now, what.

You'Ve seen the last couple of months? Thanks. Well, look, the South American market experienced higher attention from China when it comes to not only soy but also government other commodities. And we had the sentiment there that overall when trade clarity comes up, that this region would react first to this increase in increased level of certainty when it comes to global trade as we are still in a moment of uncertainty. I mean there is a deal announced between the US and China about 25 metrics million metric tons of soy over the next couple of years, three years. We still await the exact numbers and we will still need to see as an industry, not as only cnh, what are the actual purchase volumes of China when it comes to South American soybeans and other commodities that will then refuel farmer sentiment in the region when it comes to, you know, 2026 planting season and related equipment sale or purchase considerations. So it's really around continued ambiguity of global trade and a still existing lack of certainty because I mean you have heard many trade deals being announced but then the details are not yet disclosed and are not there yet. And so our farmers are and so are we. We are curious to see those details coming through which will then lead to more certainty and that will also then lead to a higher level of predictability when it comes to purchase equipment sales. I mean equipment purchases. So that is the difference. We haven't really improved on certainty as it comes to global trade conditions. That's the main driver. Jim alluded also to an increase in Latin American increase in delinquencies. Our farmers were expecting a payout from the from the local Brazilian farm bill as it comes to purchase of seeds and fertilizer that was delayed. And so farmers, you know, preferenced or basically prioritized purchase of seeds, fertilizer, inputs that purchased rather those instead of, let's say giving priority to our equipment or the industry's equipment rates. And so that is another drag in the market. That is another indicator for uncertainty that has very much unfolded in the third quarter and we are taking a very cautious view here and so do the farmers. So more uncertainty and wait and see mentality in Brazil. That's really what we has has changed and we need to see what China really buys. In the end, one thing is the deal, the other thing is the actual purchase and the consistency of such purchases month after month.

Our next question comes from Ted Jackson from Northland. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Thanks very much. Excuse me. Thanks very much. Good morning or afternoon depending on where you're at. Two questions for you. One with regards to the tariff guidance and you know, the. What is it? 80, 80 million I think you said you were going to have in the fourth quarter. What was when you at the second. Quarter, what was the view for tariff impact for the remainder of the year? Honestly, I don't recall what it was. And I looked at the past presentation. You didn't see anything in there. I mean is this are the costs that you're putting forth there? Is that incremental relative to what your.

View was exiting the second quarter and going into third? Yeah, good questions. The section 232 costs were not part of our guidance at Q2. I think we indicated 110 to 120 million of full year net tariff costs and then we bumped that up to the current view. So that's the biggest reduction in guidance is not from tariffs were a small, small piece of that. The bigger reduction was more of the. Items we'd gone through.

The SGMA increases and the mix effects you got mix came in, came in tougher than we thought. My next and last question obviously is, you know, even with all this stuff. And you look at the change in guidance, you know, you did take your sales number up, you know, at the midpoint it would be up, you know, 650, 700 million bucks. You know, your third quarter at least relative to consensus was a bit higher this year. I'm going so even if we just say okay, well third quarter was better and just use consensus as a proxy. And back that out, you know there's. Another $200 million of, of sales in. Fourth quarter relative to kind of, you know, what would have been expected. You know, this with prior guidance. You know, it sounds like it's construction. In EMEA that's driving that. And then how much of that increase is. Am I right with that?

And then is there how much of that, that pickup in revenue is from you being able to push along pricing as you're compensating for things like tariffs and such? Yeah, yeah. So pricing remains a positive driver of revenue in Q4, so that's definitely a favorable item that we've got baked in the second half. Change in the guidance that you're seeing though was again mostly driven by higher volume sales in sales areas with sort of lagging margins. So the margin that you'd associate with any given dollar sale just wasn't there given where the sales occurred. So higher sales without the margin delivery coming through it. That's what's really affecting the. What would appear to be a bad incremental or decremental. It's really just the sales mix.

Our final question today will come from David Razzo from Evercore isi. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Hi.

Thank you. When you speak to global industry retail next year being flat to slightly down, the order books as they sit today, where are the order books right now versus a year ago? And ideally, if you can help us, between the North American Large Ag commentary for next year and emea, if you can give us some sense of the order patterns in those two regions would be great. Yeah, I think the order coverage we see right now is basically, As I said, Q4 is basically covered everywhere. Q1 largely, let's say, very well on track. We have a bit more product coverage on the North American side than in other regions. But this is pretty comparable, I would say, to prior years. I think there's not a particular pattern here. We are working through obviously very older programs and we're working through, which will be quite exciting for us to showcase the machines next week at the Agritechnica. We have a full lineup of renewed tractors on offer and similar upgrades also on the combine side. So I think the Agritechnica as well will be another stimulating moment when our farmers see what great machines we are putting out there. And so we're pretty excited to walk you around and show you what we have on offer. But the order books are very much in line with expectation. Hey, David, one more data point that we're excited about and it's very comforting and validating. Our flagship combines in North America, the production slots are sold out for the entire year. And that's evidence of how well that machine's performing, how well it's been received and the value proposition. So that's another good sign about building the right products and markets, receiving them quite well.

That concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.