Federal Realty Investment achieves best leasing quarter ever, boosting FFO per share to $1.77 and raising 2025 guidance amid strong operational momentum.
In this transcript
Summary
- Federal Realty Investment reported its best leasing quarter ever, with 727,000 square feet of comparable space leased at a 28% increase in annual cash rent over previous tenancies.
- The company achieved a strong comparable operating income growth of 4.4% and FFO per share of $1.77, despite certain negative impacts from projects like Santana West.
- Federal Realty Investment is progressing with residential construction projects in Hoboken, New Jersey, and Ballykinwood, Pennsylvania, and recently broke ground on a new project at Santana Row.
- Recent acquisitions like Annapolis Town Center are expected to provide meaningful growth, and the company has a robust acquisition pipeline with a focus on expanding its geographical footprint without sacrificing quality.
- Management raised its FFO per share guidance for 2025 to $7.05-$7.11, driven by operational outperformance and new acquisitions. They also highlighted strong liquidity and a disciplined capital recycling program.
- Operationally, the company achieved a record 123 comparable deals with impressive rent spreads, and they maintain a strong pipeline of new leases.
- Federal Realty Investment plans to continue leveraging its expertise to enhance performance in newly acquired properties and is optimistic about future growth prospects.
- The company is executing a strategy of enhanced internal and external growth, supported by a strong balance sheet and significant liquidity.
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OPERATOR - (00:02:38)
Good day and welcome to the Federal Realty Investment Trust third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. All participants will be in listen only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jill Sawyer, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Jill Sawyer - Senior Vice President of Investor Relations - (00:03:16)
Thank you. Megan, good morning. Thank you for joining us today for Federal Realty's third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Before we get started, a reminder that certain matters discussed on this call may be deemed to be forward looking statements. Forward looking statements include any annualized or projected information as well as statements referring to expected or anticipated events or results, including guidance. Although Federal Realty believes the expectations reflected in such forward looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, Federal Realty's future operations and its actual performance may differ materially from the information in our forward looking statements and we can give no assurance that these expectations can be attained. The earnings release and supplemental reporting package that we issued this morning, our annual report filed on Form 10K and our other financial disclosure documents provide a more in depth discussion of risk factors that may affect our financial condition and operational results. Before we begin our prepared remarks, I want to note that Don Wood, our Chief Executive Officer, is temporarily away due to a recent loss of an immediate family member. Our thoughts are with Don and his family during this very difficult time. In his absence, our Chief Investment Officer, Yon Sweetnam will be reading Don's prepared remarks in addition to Yan. Joining me on the call today are Dan Guglielmoni, Chief Financial Officer, Wendy Cyr, Eastern Region President and Chief Operating Officer, as well as other members of our executive and senior leadership team, including Dawn Becker, Jeff Kreshik, Stu Beal and Melissa Solis that are available to take your questions at the conclusion of our prepared remarks. And with that, I will turn the call over to Yon Sweetnam. Yon, Please begin.
Yon Sweetnam - Chief Investment Officer - (00:04:52)
Thanks, Jill and good morning everybody. Following are Don's prepared remarks. Best leasing quarter we've ever had. Ever. And that's saying something. Given the leasing strength over the past few years. 727,000ft of comparable space written at $35.71, 28% more annual cash rent than the previous tenant. Two thirds of that space was for renewals with de minimis capital required of the remaining one. Third related to new tenants, over half related to space that is currently occupied, but for which a more productive tenant executed a lease a year or two, or even three early in order to lock it up. There's no better evidence of the attractiveness of a shopping center to retailers than that, and it's one of the best ways in our business to assure an increasing stream of cash flows well into the future. Wendy will talk about core leasing a bit more in a few minutes. Strong comparable operating income growth of 4.4% in the quarter was equally encouraging and led to FFO per share of $1.77 despite the absence of capitalized interest and operating costs at Santana west that negatively impacted ffo per share by $0.04. That drag will begin to dissipate in this fourth quarter and in 2026 and 2027 as tenants in the 90% leased, soon to be 95% leased building continue to occupy and work through free rent periods. Operationally, this was a really strong quarter and based on what we see thus far in October should allow us to close out 2025 strong in terms of development and redevelopment. Residential construction in Hoboken, New Jersey and Ballykinwood, Pennsylvania are moving along nicely on or under budget and on time with leasing to begin in early 2026 at Balla Kenwood during the third quarter we broke ground on 258 new residential units on the last surface parking lot at Santana Row, committing capital of roughly 145 million. Those three projects, Hoboken, Balla and Santana will require roughly $280 million of capital, all in fully amenitized and proven environments and should yield 6.5 to 7% unlevered. There's more to come in this component of our business in 2026. Current conditions suggest market value should be 150 to 200 basis points inside those returns. We're committed to realizing that value over time, as we've demonstrated with the sale of Avari at Santana Row earlier this year, palace at pike and Roads, which is currently under contract for sale and should close right around year end, and the current marketing of Mesorra at Santana Row on the acquisition front. I really want to thank those of you that made the trip to Kansas City to join us for our investor tour of Town Center Crossing and Plaza in Leawood earlier this month. We're off to a great start there from a cash flow and value enhancing perspective and I just want to reemphasize the two points that I think became apparent to investors and analysts on that trip. First, that we are not sacrificing quality by expanding our geographical footprint. The growth prospects for these investments exceed both the retail and residential assets we're selling, and it is highly likely that the exit cap rates for the shopping centers we're pursuing will tighten considerably based upon our re tenanting and redevelopment. And second, that this is not a change in strategy for federal Our deep and experienced team is doing what it has always done lease it better both from a merchandising and strength of lease contract standpoint. Create a more inviting physical space that lengthens stay times and increases spend and intensify the land with more retail or residential GLA where and whenever economically feasible. Same business plan and strategy just on different land with the same characteristics. The affluent consumer is underserved, the centers are big and dominant and existing relevant tenants have proven that it's the place in the sub market to be. You might have also seen that we closed on the acquisition of Annapolis Town center in the a location off State Route 50 which heads into D.C. and Interstate 97 which takes you to Baltimore in Annapolis, Maryland. We bought the property for 187 million at a 7% unlevered return. With an anchor and shadow anchor foundation grounded by very successful retailers Whole Foods, Lifetime Fitness and Target. We expect to be able to enhance the surrounding merchandising with better and more productive tenancy enabling higher rents. We're very excited about this addition in our core market. Next up is another large and dominant center in a growing Midwestern submarket that we expect to close in this fourth quarter. More to come on that one soon. So that's about it for my prepared remarks. Enhanced internal and external growth using all the tools at our disposal is the name of the game. Quarters like this third of 2025 increase my confidence of doing so. Let me now turn it over to Wendy to expand on the leasing environment.
Wendy Cyr - Eastern Region President and Chief Operating Officer - (00:09:36)
Thank you Jan and good morning everybody. Exceptional performance for the quarter highlighted by record leasing volumes that build significant forward momentum as we conclude the year and look ahead to 2026. As reflected in Don's comments, we successfully recorded a record 123 comparable deals at impressive rent spreads of 28% over in place prior rents. Our operational metrics are in top form evidenced by strong occupancy, healthy margins and reduced controllable expenses, all underscoring a solid financial performance. Outstanding results overall for the quarter. Occupancy in the comparable pool continues to show momentum as our occupied rate climbed 40 basis points last quarter and 20 basis points year over year to 94% on an overall occupancy basis including all of our shopping centers, we stand at 93.8% today. Keep in mind our two recent acquisitions, Leawood and Annapolis were roughly 91% and 85% occupied at closing, therefore impacting total overall occupancy. As we head into the fourth quarter, we encourage investors to focus on our comparable occupancy metrics which more accurately reflect the continued strength and momentum across the core portfolio. Turning to our lease rate, our comparable lease rate stands at a very healthy 95.7%. We expect the figure to grow and show positive momentum into year end, driven by a strong pipeline including over 175,000 square feet of new leases currently in process for vacant space. This represents roughly 70 basis points of incremental lease rate opportunity. While the third quarter saw record leasing volume, a significant portion of this activity was for space which currently was occupied. This is a testament to the durability of the centers and reinforces future stability in our occupancy metrics, providing embedded growth even if it doesn't immediately lift the recorded rate. By pre leasing space, we effectively reduce downtime, we smooth out quarter to quarter revenue and strengthen occupancy over time. This proactive approach is a major focus across our operating teams. We continue to see broad based demand for our quality real estate with a variety of best in class names and categories such as Chopped, Aloe, Burlington, Our House and Ross to name a few. And we continue to upgrade our retail lineup including within our more recent acquisitions Virginia, Gateway, Pembroke and Leawood to be specific, with names such as Coach and Lego, Warby, Parker and Blue Mercury, we were able to drive rents and earn a return on our capital there. Merchandising and retail sales performance is our focus. Love Shack Fancy just had their grand opening this past weekend at the Grove in Shrewsbury. Attracted by the addition of our small format Blumies concept, Love Shack Fancy opened to a line out the door and had their best opening ever of their 25 locations. Merchandising matters in Non Commodity Centers Our acquisition of Annapolis Town center this quarter is a prime example of our disciplined acquisition strategy. 479,000 square foot mixed use retail property confirms our focus on acquiring high quality dominant centers in affluent markets. With an 85% current occupancy rate, we expect the addition of Annapolis to provide meaningful growth with strong existing anchors like Whole Foods, Target and Lifetime and featuring popular retail brands such as Sephora, rh, Pottery Barn and Anthropologie. A perfect addition to our Maryland portfolio. Expect us to provide a number of tenant announcements for Annapolis on our next call. And with that I'll turn it over to Dan.
Dan Guglielmoni - Chief Financial Officer - (00:14:07)
Thank you, Wendy and hello everyone. Our reported FFO per share for the third quarter of $1.77 above consensus and at the top end of our guidance range of 172 to 177. Comparable POI growth for the quarter was 4.4% on a GAAP basis and 3.7% on a cash basis. Both metrics outperformed our expectations primarily due to higher than forecasted revenues in retail, residential and parking. As a result, we will increase guidance for both 2025 FFO per share and comparable POI growth. More to come on that later in my prepared remarks, but first an update on the balance sheet. We continue to have significant liquidity of approximately $1.3 billion at quarter end, comprised of availability on our $1.25 billion unsecured credit facility and over $100 million of cash at quarter end. Amid an active capital allocation program, our balance sheet remains strong. Third quarter annualized net debt to EBITDA is solid and stands at 5.6 times reflecting the purchase of the Leewit assets and our fixed charge coverage stood at 3.9 times. We continue to look to execute on our capital recycling program with 400 million of assets at various stages in the asset sale process with roughly 200 million expected to close by year end or shortly thereafter and another 200 plus million forecasted to close in the first half of 2026. Behind that we we have a pool of over $1 billion of non core assets under consideration to be brought to market in 2026 and beyond. Of that total roughly $1.5 billion pool, about a third is peripherally located residential with the other 2/3 being non core retail with estimated blended yields targeted in the mid to upper 5% cap rate range and blended unlevered IRRs into inside of seven very attractively priced capital. While leverage may fluctuate modestly from quarter to quarter, given inherent timing differences between acquisition and sale transactions, we expect to maintain a long term net debt to EBITDA ratio in the low to mid 5 times range. From a flexibility perspective with leverage metrics where they are and over $1.5 billion of asset sales in process and under consideration, we are very well positioned to continue to be on offense with respect to capital deployment. Now onto guidance. As mentioned earlier with a third consecutive beaton raised, we are raising our forecasted range for FFO per share excluding the new market tax credit more akin to a recurring FFO to $7.05 to $7.11. This represents about 4.6% growth on this recurring basis at the midpoint over 2024 and roughly 4 to 5% at the low and high end of the range respectively, including the one time new market tax credits. In these figures, our nearly defined FFO range increases to $7.20 to $7.26, which represents 6.8% growth at the midpoint over 2024. This increase is driven by $0.01 of net operating outperformance during the quarter and roughly $0.01 accretion from the Annapolis acquisition for the quarter, which translates to 3 to 4 cents on an annualized basis. Given another strong result for 3Q, we are increasing our forecast for 2025 comparable POI growth to 3.5 to 4% or 3.75% at the midpoint and that's 4% when excluding prior period rent and term fees. We expect comparable occupied levels to be in the low 94s by year end. Given the deal signed to date and the continued robust pipeline of leasing activity which continues to have momentum even after the record third quarter volumes, retail tenant demand for our portfolio is showing no signs of abating to take. We do have one other acquisition that we have under contract that should close before year end of roughly 150 million, although given the expected closing late in the quarter, we do not expect it to materially add to 2025 FFO. One thing to keep in mind, the acquisitions we have completed so far this year, including the one currently under contract, will total over $750 million, have a blended initial cash yield of roughly 7%, a gap yield north of 7% and initial blended occupied rate just 88%. These are high quality assets with clear leasing upside which will enhance growth in 2026, 27 and beyond. Implied FFO guidance for fourth quarter 2025 is 182 to 188 and represents 7% growth year over year at the midpoint. While we won't be providing formal 2026 guidance until our fourth quarter call in February, we do expect a strong year operationally. We're executing from a position of strength. We're investing strategically, maintaining balance sheet discipline and setting ourselves up for another year of meaningful growth ahead. Before I hand the call back to the operator, given the number of participants on the call, we kindly ask that you limit yourself to one question during this segment of the call and please no multi part questions. You have additional questions, please re queue and Given the really tough news that Jill shared earlier, we completely understand that many of you may want to send a message of support to Don and his family. However, we respectfully ask that you reframe from expressing condolences on this call so we can focus on the discussion on Federal Realty and its third quarter results and keep the Q and A segment of the call as efficient as possible. Thank you. And with that operator, please open the line for questions.
OPERATOR - (00:20:26)
We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press Star then one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press Star then two. Please rejoin the queue for any follow up questions at this time. We will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question comes from Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Juan Sanabria - Equity Analyst - (00:21:08)
Hi, great. Thank you for the time for the team, I guess Dan, you talked about the dispositions and processing gave kind of a blended cap rate. But just curious if you can give any color on how the two main buckets, retail versus Red Sea compare, given kind of early feedback on what may be kind of out there in the marketplace to test pricing. Sure, sure. Look, we've got as we mentioned, 400 million in the market. Now that's probably a little bit more skewed towards residential overall. The billion five is a third of the peripheral residential two thirds, you know, non core retail pricing is going to be, you know, kind of in and around five sub five for what we're selling on the residential and it'll be in and around six, six, you know, low sixes, six, sometimes high fives on, on a blended basis on the retail. And so blended we should be in the mid to upper fives overall. So you know, I think a nice positive spread to where we're deploying the capital in and around the high sixes, low sevens on a cash basis and gap yields above that. Thank you.
OPERATOR - (00:22:33)
The next question comes from Michael Goldsmith with ubs. Please go ahead.
Michael Goldsmith - Equity Analyst - (00:22:39)
Good morning. Thanks a lot for taking my question. Dan, you mentioned you're not going to issue formal 2026 guidance, but you did talk about some of the factors, right, like an app list and the benefit that you'll see next year as well as the capitalized interest in Samtle starting to pay. So can you outline kind of any sort of one time or other topics that you've already talked about for 2026 just so we can get a sense of where the puck is going? What's the trajectory of the company and. What earnings growth next year could look.
Dan Guglielmoni - Chief Financial Officer - (00:23:14)
Like based on what you've already said. Thanks. Yeah, good question. Thank you, Michael. With respect to one timers, obviously the big one timer really is what's occurred in 2025 with the new market tax credit. We would encourage folks, if you want to understand kind of the true operational growth underlying the business is to exclude that one timer in 2025 and focus on the $7.08 of kind of more of a recurring number. And in terms of looking forward, we don't have anything or expect to have any one timers. One timers. We consider a recurring number as term fees. We think that's recurring. It's a part of the business. It's unforecastable. But we do not expect any kind of material differences from our current guidance, which we increased a little bit this quarter and call it the 5 million, 5 to 6 million dollars range. So it should be consistent with that. With regards to capitalized interest you brought up, you know, we had about 13 and a half million or expecting in the 13 to 14 million dollars range this year. We're not done. We don't have a precise number, but I think as a placeholder, using kind of a 10 to 11 million dollars kind of level for capitalized interest is something you can use for now. We'll provide more precision on that in February. With regards to, you know, growth in, you know, we don't have a precise number, but you know, right now at current guidance in 2025, you know, the recurring number is in the mid fours, 4.6%. I would expect that that feels like it should be somewhat consistent with where we'd expect things to be next year as well on a recurring basis. Keep in mind that's with about 150 to 200 basis points of headwind from the refinancing of our bonds in February that we're expecting. And so that's call it 5 and a half to 7% underlying growth in the core business, which I think is, you know, we feel really, really good about. And so that's kind of, I think, the big numbers I would, I would point you to. We do expect, you know, we only have 3 to 5 million of incremental development POI contribution this year. That will be up higher next year into the, you know, into the double digits. We'll have a more precise number for you in 20, you know, in terms of the 2026 incremental contribution on the fall in February.
OPERATOR - (00:25:53)
Our next question comes from Samir Khanal with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Samir Khanal - Equity Analyst - (00:26:00)
Good morning everybody. I guess Yan or Wendy, the spreads in the quarter were impressive, right? 28% cash spreads. I guess if you take a step back, how much of that is sort of true market rent growth that you're seeing in your portfolio versus maybe just sort of mix or tenant upgrades, trying to understand if these spreads are sustainable and if there's sort of this inflection of market rents that are taking place for your type of assets. Thanks.
Wendy Cyr - Eastern Region President and Chief Operating Officer - (00:26:31)
There's no question that the 28% is a strong number from us as you kind of the way I kind of look at it is more over a 12 month period which is more we're seeing kind of in the mid teens so and continue to be aggressive and it makes sense, right? Because our leased and occupied rate continue to increase. So we're able to drive rents at that rate. I think that it can be lumpy. So not every quarter will be 28% but I think that we are definitely seeing some ability to drive rents and like I said that trailing 12 months should provide us in that mid teens as the results will play out in the fourth quarter and into the first quarter.
OPERATOR - (00:27:21)
Our next question comes from Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.
Alexander Goldfarb - Equity Analyst - (00:27:28)
Hey morning down there, Dan. Out at Santana West you had that office tenant that you know, whatever didn't take the space this year, whatever the take space, you know, making it ready that, you know, got delayed. Is that tenant looking to be on Track for. For 26? Meaning like should we expect sort of early in 26 that that revenue would start flowing or could that be further delayed from a revenue recognition standpoint?
Dan Guglielmoni - Chief Financial Officer - (00:28:02)
Our expectation is in line with our revised guidance earlier in the year that this fourth quarter we will begin recognizing straight line rent. And so they'll be, we'll be recognizing on PwC, which is roughly the 40% anchor tenant in the building will be recognizing straight line rent. And that's why that's one of the drivers of kind of the incremental POI that we'll see from our development pipeline or development portfolio in 2026. So you know, in line with our expectations and will be a driver of growth next year.
OPERATOR - (00:28:43)
Our next question comes from Michael Griffin with Evercore isi. Please go ahead.
Michael Griffin - Equity Analyst - (00:28:49)
Great, thanks. Maybe one for Jan. Just as it relates to sort of the investment pipeline and outlook. I know in Kansas City you talked about the upside opportunity in some of these larger open air centers similar to Town center versus maybe the premium the market is putting on more Grocery anchors. So can you just talk about your thoughts on maybe the disconnect between those two types of properties? Expectations for higher foot traffic at grocery anchor center that's maybe driving down that cap rate or is there just a broader disconnect versus the types of assets like a town center or an Annapolis that you all are targeting? Thank you. Yeah, thanks, Michael. Good question. Interesting time in the market. There has historically been for at least the last 10 years strong demand for grocery anchored centers and cap rates have gotten bid down to relatively low levels and sort of feels like they've flattened out a little bit. There just has not been as much capital on the market. In fact, really recently there's been very little capital on the market for larger transactions. And so the few transactions that came to the market, there was good bidding for it, but the yields were higher because there wasn't that much competition for it. This last in the second half of this year, I think what we've seen is there's a lot of large centers that have come to the market. There's more capital in the market chasing those. It still feels like there's a good supply, demand equilibrium there. But it's just that we still see that spread happening here simply because the larger centers are. It can be more complicated to execute. There's a lot more leasing that needs to be done there. And I just think we are. One of the reasons we're really interested in it is we think we get a great risk adjusted yield in buying these assets that are a little bit more complicated. They're larger, they're harder to operate because we've just got a great leasing team. We've got such great relationships with the merchants and we get so much intel on these things before we actually start bidding on them. No, let's put them under contract. We still think that spread is going to be there. It has not disappeared.
Yan Sweetnam - (00:31:06)
Our next question comes from Simi Rome with Barclays. Please go ahead.
OPERATOR - (00:31:11)
Hi. Thanks very much for taking the question.
Simi Rome - Equity Analyst - (00:31:14)
I was wondering if you could elaborate. A bit on the debt maturity schedule and particularly the $200 million Bethesda Roe mortgage returning in December. I saw there's two one year extension options there. So I was just wondering what the plan is. Thanks.
Dan Guglielmoni - Chief Financial Officer - (00:31:29)
Yeah. With regard specifically to Bethesda Row and I'll talk a little bit more broadly about our maturity schedule going forward. But Bethesda Row, we will be extending that for another year. Exercising the first of those two options would take us to the end of 2026. We have the flexibility to push it out to the end of 2027. It's a low leverage. It surely is imminently financeable at the end as well. So really no concerns there. We did refinance our Azalea alone which has a maturity of tomorrow. And so that's been refinanced very attractive rates in the kind of on a swap to fix basis it'll be end up in kind of the below fours. And then with regards to the maturity we have in February of our $400 million of bonds with a one and a quarter percent we've got, you know, we've got options and it's good to have options whether it be in the bond market, whether it be in the bank term loan market, whether it be in the convertible market. To have those options is really kind of what being federal and having our high investment grade rating kind of allows us to do to be able to be opportunistic and nimble with regard to how we plan to refinance that. And we'll look to optimize it. And so more to come on that obviously in February there'll be more color on exactly how we execute it.
OPERATOR - (00:32:58)
Our next question comes from Floris van Dychkum with Lautenberg. Please go ahead.
Floris van Dychkum - Equity Analyst - (00:33:06)
Hey, thanks. Question on your physical occupancy, I know you're still about 160 basis points, I believe below peak levels and maybe Wendy, if you can give some sort of update on how quickly you see that trending and is there a chance that we could surpass that level over the next 18 months or so.
Wendy Cyr - Eastern Region President and Chief Operating Officer - (00:33:36)
Thanks, Flores. I think what we're seeing is in terms of our ability to drive that occupancy rate up, I'm feeling good about the anchor side of it, I think is where we have more room to push that number. And I think you're going to see that as I mentioned in my comments with that 175,000 square feet of space that we have really finalizing and signing leases in the next quarter for spaces that are currently vacant. So you're going to see that push up towards the end of the quarter. And I think on the small shop side we're over 93% leased right now. So, so I think we're going to use that as an opportunity to continue to drive rents. It could go up a little bit, but we're going to we like a little bit of that frictional vacancy as I call it, that we can drive rents. But I think you're going to see it more increase on the anchor side which will overall increase Our occupancy.
OPERATOR - (00:34:34)
Our next question comes from Cooper Clark with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Cooper Clark - Equity Analyst - (00:34:40)
Great, thanks for taking the question. Curious how Annapolis is funded and how that ties into the $0.01 accretion for 4Q and 3 to $0.04 for the full year. Wondering if that $0.01 accretion is combined with the 200 million of sales to fund or just trying to figure out how that $0.01 is inclusive of sales to close by year end or not.
Dan Guglielmoni - Chief Financial Officer - (00:35:03)
Yeah, look, it's somewhat fungible and look, we are, we have a big balance sheet that allows us the flexibility to fund ultimately we've got capacity on our credit facilities and our term loans. Temporarily, we fund it on that basis, cash on hand. Ultimately on a long term basis it will be on a permanent basis be funded with the asset sales. So the $0.01 accretion is really the spread between kind of the long term, you know, basically yield or the initial yield day one and next 12 months relative to, you know, we're, we're selling stuff in the initial yields in the mid to high fives and we're in the, on a gap basis in the sevens. That's how you get to the 1%, the $0.01 accretion on a quarterly basis for the fourth quarter and 3 to $0.04 on an annualized basis for the full year. Hopefully that answers your question. It's a good one, Cooper, but hopefully that answers it.
OPERATOR - (00:36:12)
Our next question comes from Greg McGinnis with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Victor Pettion - (00:36:17)
Hello, this is Victor pettion with Greg McGinnis. As you are now in an active external growth mode, could you share some. Details on current competition for the assets you target and how it is impacting cap rates overall? Just trying to understand whether the pool of assets that check all the boxes for federal is shrinking or not.
Dan Guglielmoni - Chief Financial Officer - (00:36:40)
Jan, do you want to take that one?
Yan Sweetnam - (00:36:43)
Yeah, I'm not sure I totally heard the full question. Is a question in terms of what does the pool of future potential acquisitions look like? Was that the question?
Victor Pettion - (00:36:54)
Yeah.
Yan Sweetnam - (00:36:55)
As a result of pure intents dynamic and competition for the assets. Yeah, just trying to understand the size of the pool. Yeah, yeah, yeah, got it. All right. So the, I sort of, it sort of feels like we're, we're in continued equilibrium. And by what I, what I mean by that is, you know, go back 12 months or nine months ago. There weren't a lot of large transactions that we're interested in that were on the market and there weren't a lot of people chasing those type of assets. And so it felt like it Sort of was in equilibrium. And today there was a lot of large transactions that came on the market in April, May, June that were also matched by more capital coming in, looking at those acquisitions and those possibilities. And so it feels like we're sort of, while there's more competition out there, I think it's more work for the sellers trying to understand who's real on the bid sheet and of the ones that are real, who are the ones that really stand out as being able to work through issues and be at the closing, at the end. And as we think through, we think we compete very well on that basis. So just from a competitive standpoint, it feels like we're sort of in the same position. From an equilibrium standpoint, we'll have to see what happens in 26 and beyond that. But we would expect to continue to see more large transactions coming to the market later this year, beginning of next year. And we think we're in a pretty good competitive position to make a play for them.
Dan Guglielmoni - Chief Financial Officer - (00:38:28)
Yeah, and look, I think that another thing that is not kind of, I think fully appreciated and yes. Is the skill set that we have as federal realty, whether it be in our leasing capability, our relationships with tenants, our ability to add place making and other things that enhance the operations and productivity of the assets that we buy. A lot of these assets are under managed and they're not. It's not easy, it's not low hanging fruit and you need a really, really good operator to drive those kind of results. And I think that's a competitive advantage we have over much of the capital that we're competing with. And we can do things that others can't in terms of driving POI upside and NOI upside at these potential acquisitions.
OPERATOR - (00:39:22)
Our next question comes from Greg Mailman with Citi. Please go ahead. You may be muted. Greg? Greg, we don't hear you. You're on mute. Okay, we'll go to the next question. Next. Operator, the next question is from Robbie Vaibia with Mizuho. Please go ahead.
Robbie Vaibia - Equity Analyst - (00:40:00)
Hi there. Good morning. Can we discuss the Snow pipeline? How much do we have in total rent that's embedded in that pipeline and what's the projected timeline for this to come online? Do you think it will compress from here on out or is there room for this to expand further as occupancy grows? Thanks.
Dan Guglielmoni - Chief Financial Officer - (00:40:18)
Great question. Ravi and Craig, re queue. We'll get to your question for whatever the technical difficulty. We didn't hear you, but please re queue. So we want to hear from you. Ravi, great question. Snow is going to be about 20 million in the comparable portfolio and another 18 million in kind of the to be delivered portfolio. So 38 million in total in terms of about a quarter of that will come online or on an annualized basis begin and commence in the fourth quarter. About. Call it 60% should be in 2026 and the remaining 15% should occur call it in 2027. For the most part, you know, the probably of the 60% next year, you know, roughly probably three quarters of it is going to be, you know, 70, 70 to 75% should be in the first half of the year. Obviously, SNO has become a, you know, is helpful for you guys From a modeling perspective. It only tells half the story. I mean, when you look at S and O, you have to look at the other side of, you know, that's filling the top of the bucket. S and O, what is the leaks in the bottom of the bucket? What is your credit reserve? What's the credit profile of your tenancy? You know, I think that that needs to be looked at in tandem. So I would encourage you guys to the extent that snow is important to you, that you look at both sides of that. With regards to our snow, given what Wendy had indicated, we expect our leased rate to grow into the fourth quarter and into the beginning of 2026. That should grow our spread between our lease rate and occupied rate. Both of them should trend upwards, which is what you want. I think that's more important the direction of your occupancy metrics than necessarily what the spread is between the two. We will look to. It may increase up towards 200 basis points, but our objective is to tighten that as much as we can and get into kind of historical levels in the low hundreds, 100 to 150 basis points. That's obviously kind of where we'd like to be. That shows efficiency in getting tenants open. And it's also an indication of the credit quality of your tenancy if you kind of can maintain a very, very tight S and O, as everyone likes to say.
OPERATOR - (00:42:54)
Our next question comes from Craig Millman with Citi. Please go ahead.
Sydney - (00:43:03)
Hey, guys, this is Sydney on for Craig. I think he was having some technical difficulties. So, Wendy, you mentioned that tenants are vying for currently occupied space, you know. Two to three quarters and years ahead of expirations. Now, is this a significant trend that. You'Re seeing or is this, you know, more anecdotal?
Wendy Cyr - Eastern Region President and Chief Operating Officer - (00:43:22)
And how much did this activity actually drive the cash spreads on new leases during the quarter? Yes, thank you for the Question, Sydney. You know, when I look at what we've been doing over the last several quarters, you can see that our rate of new deals that are being basically signed up for space that's already occupied has continued to tick up. So maybe it's more in the, if you, if you look kind of coming out of COVID We were leasing, we had more vacancy. We were leasing space that was occupied in the 30, 40% range. Now we're up to 50, 60, and this quarter was 70% of what we're leasing is already for occupied space. So I think that'll continue as our occupancy and lease rates go up. And I think it's showing a healthy ability to reduce downtime and to level out our revenues quarter to quarter. And that's really what we're focused on.
OPERATOR - (00:44:29)
Our next question comes from Hong Lian Zhan with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Hong Lian Zhan - Equity Analyst - (00:44:37)
Yeah, hey, Dan, I guess a quick question or clarification. I think you talked about FFO growth. Being kind of in the mid fours. On a recurring basis going forward. Is that just for the current portfolio. Or does that also layer on potential. Future acquisition and disposition activity, too?
Dan Guglielmoni - Chief Financial Officer - (00:44:57)
Yeah, now that's just kind of with what's in place. For the most part, it reflects kind of expectations with Annapolis, but it does not assume any incremental acquisitions in 20 or speculative acquisitions in 2026 that would be additive given our, you know, our objective of, you know, doing acquisitions that are accretive from day one, obviously, that is, you know, the poor. The mid fours is kind of the baseline and, you know, acquisitions will enhance, you know, that figure kind of going forward. There's no embedded assumptions on speculative acquisitions or dispositions in that number.
OPERATOR - (00:45:43)
Our next question comes from Omotayo Okasanya with Deutsche blank. Please go ahead.
Omotayo Okasanya - Equity Analyst - (00:45:50)
Hi, good morning. Could you talk a little bit about the 450 million acquisition that's meant to. Happen by year end?
Dan Guglielmoni - Chief Financial Officer - (00:46:00)
If you just kind of give a general sense of kind of what it is, where it is. Yeah, John, you can add on. I'm just going to look. We'll announce that when we close on it. We are expecting we're under contract. It's roughly $150 million, as Don alluded to. It's kind of in a, it's a, you know, will be a similar market to a, you know, Leawood, Kansas type of location. We'll announce that when it closes, as is our policy and kind of what we do on a normal basis. Jan, I don't know. With regards to returns, it's going to be consistent with the returns that we've been achieving on the assets to date. Jan, I don't know if there's any other color, but I think that's what we're probably prepared to give you today. Tail.
Yan Sweetnam - (00:46:56)
Yeah. No, I think you nailed it, Dan. I think the only thing I would just add or reemphasize is it's a great city, it's a great msa, it fits it unbelievably well in the affluent submarket. And the affluent customer there is underserved and there's pent up demand in the marketplace. And I think that will be able to demonstrate that and talk about it once we close it. So that's what I would add to it.
Dan Guglielmoni - Chief Financial Officer - (00:47:19)
And I'd add another thing that this is an off market transaction, something that was sourced off market and it fits perfectly within the new federal playbook in terms of top metros with a dynamic employment, dominant assets with meaningful size and significant trade area affluence, unmet retail demand and proven hits and checks, all of those boxes. So we're excited about it and stay tuned.
OPERATOR - (00:47:57)
Our next question comes from Linda Tsai with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Linda Tsai - Equity Analyst - (00:48:03)
Hi. Thanks for taking my question. It sounds like including what you have under contract to sell, 200 closing by year end and another 200 closing in 2026, you could be selling up to the 1.5 billion you've identified. Is it feasible to replenish with another 1.5 billion and recycle that as well? Just wondering about the length of, of Runway for unlocking of value creation.
Dan Guglielmoni - Chief Financial Officer - (00:48:24)
Yeah, look, it's a great question, Linda, and thanks. I think that that gives us Runway probably into 27 and the existing billion dollars gives us Runway. These are identified. We think that they'll attract interest from the market and so forth. Do we have more behind that? Is there? Yes. I mean we could kind of delve in I think this is the near term, the next 18, 24, 36 month pool that we're considering. And is there more behind it? Yes, you know, you know, we, we need to be thoughtful A lot of what we are, you know, we, we own in our, in our portfolio as significant gains because we've created significant amounts of value in these assets. And so we need kind of to be thoughtful with regards to managing that. Ideally we'd like to do that through 1031 exchanges. So that also is kind of a governor. But to the extent we need to accelerate because we see more opportunities in the market to deploy capital on the acquisition Front or in redevelopments and so forth. You know, we have that ability to accelerate and move up some of the pool to the forefront of activity in our, in our asset sale process.
OPERATOR - (00:49:47)
Our next question comes from Kenneth Billingsley with Compass Point. Please go ahead.
Kenneth Billingsley - (00:49:53)
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I just want to follow up. I think you made some comments on the leasing side, but looking at renewal rates of up 29% GLA was the highest in the last 12 months. Can you maybe just discuss there weren't a lot of ti's in there. Could you just maybe discuss what formulated such a high increase on a renewal basis? Look, we were able to push rents on the renewal. You know, look, timing of renewals, it ebbs and flows. We happen to have a significant kind of opportunity this quarter and those deals got done. There were some, you know, some really strong renewal rates that we were able to achieve. And you know, in terms of the volume of renewals that happens, that 11 flow over time. I think there were a number of deals that were able to get renewals at rates that were kind of above average. I would not expect us to maintain, continue to be driving renewal rates. I would look also on a trailing twelve month basis, maybe a little bit lower just because renewals tend to be a little bit lower. But I would look at kind of a more normalized number is looking at the trailing twelve which is in our supplement on the leasing page there.
OPERATOR - (00:51:16)
Our next question comes from Paulina Roja Schmidt with Green Street. Please go ahead.
Paulina Roja Schmidt - (00:51:23)
Good morning. This is a more big picture question. You have highlighted that the recently acquired centers have a very clear significant operational upside. Do you think these acquisitions along with the broader market focus are turning points for the company in terms of expected. Growth. Or you are more maintaining a growth trajectory, essentially replacing more mature centers for, for others that will drive the next phase of growth? Yeah, I hope my question, it's clear.
Dan Guglielmoni - Chief Financial Officer - (00:52:10)
Yeah, I think I understand and it's a good question, Olina. Look, we are seeing kind of the opportunity to buy assets that are more raw material to kind of put into our kind of the, the federal business model where we can really drive merchandising, leasing, rents, invest capital on a disciplined basis to really drive and enhance returns for those assets. I think that that is something that is additive. It's no different. Look, we are able to do that on our existing portfolio as well. But I think we see the opportunity to sell some of the, you know, the, some of the assets that maybe we, you know, have done a really, really good job of Harvesting the opportunity in the near term and, and see that as an attractive source of capital to redeploy into assets that you know can enhance our growth rate. But I don't see it as a turning point. I think it's more a continuation of what we do well. I think we're seeing an opportunity to harvest gains in our portfolio and redeploy them and really to enhance our growth rate. But it's really just a continuation and an expansion of what federal has always done.
OPERATOR - (00:53:38)
Again, if you have a question, please press star. Then 1. We have a follow up question from Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.
Alexander Goldfarb - Equity Analyst - (00:53:48)
Hey, thank you for taking the follow up. As you guys look at some of the expansion markets that you're obviously Leawood and then whatever the next city is, do you see that perhaps retailers or rents haven't been pushed as much as they have in those markets? I'm just trying to understand. Obviously everyone knows the infill markets like Philly area or New York Metro or D.C. metro and retailers know that hey, you have to pay big rents, there's big incomes. But just wondering as you go to some of these next some of the Midwest markets and just different legacy of ownership, do you find that the rents have been pushed in the same way or is that part of the opportunity? I'm just trying to understand if it's more just hey, new area for growth versus actually the way the markets have worked. They maybe haven't been as efficient because just different types of ownership that may have existed there versus in the coastal markets.
Stu Beal - (00:54:56)
Yeah, I'm going to let Stu Beal answer that one. You guys all met Stu on our Leewood trip. Stu, you probably at the forefront of that. Yeah. Hey Alex, thanks for the question. I think the short answer is there is a lot of Runway on the rents here. They have not been pushed as hard. The properties haven't been invested in the right way to push them as hard. At the end of the day, this is all a fraction of the function of the volume the tenants believe they can do here. I think we showed you guys when we were in Leewood the volumes that were coming out of that property before they had been kind of run in the way that we would run them. And so I do think that's a big part of this push is there is a lot of Runway to continue to upgrade the merchandise merchandising, push the sales, invest in the properties and push those rents to get closer to what they're used to paying other places in the country.
OPERATOR - (00:55:57)
This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Jill Sawyer for any closing remarks.
Jill Sawyer - Senior Vice President of Investor Relations - (00:56:05)
Thanks for joining us today. Have a nice weekend, everyone.
OPERATOR - (00:56:12)
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect .
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