YPF Reports Strong Q4 and Full Year 2025 Earnings: A Transformational Year

In its recent earnings call, YPF highlighted a remarkable fourth quarter and a transformational year for 2025, showcasing exceptional financial performance and strategic initiatives. The company achieved record-high EBITDA, operational efficiencies, and significant advancements in its shale production and LNG projects. This article delves into the details of YPF's financial performance, strategic initiatives, and future outlook, emphasizing key metrics and management insights from the call.

Financial Performance

YPF reported an annual revenue of $18.4 billion for 2025, reflecting a modest 4% decline year-over-year, primarily due to a 15% contraction in Brent prices. However, the company's Adjusted EBITDA increased by 8%, reaching $5 billion, marking the highest EBITDA in the last decade and the third largest in the company's history. Notably, the EBITDA margin improved from 24% in 2024 to 27% in 2025.

Key metrics from the fourth quarter included:

• Q4 revenues decreased by 4% year-on-year, consistent with the annual trend.
• The company achieved a Q4 EBITDA of nearly $1.3 billion, representing an impressive 53% internal growth.
• Lifting costs saw a significant reduction, dropping 44% year-over-year in Q4, contributing to a robust operational performance.

The operational excellence was further demonstrated by record shale oil production, which grew by 42% in December 2025, averaging 204,000 barrels per day, exceeding the company’s production target of 190,000 barrels per day.

Strategic Initiatives

2025 was a pivotal year for YPF, marked by significant strategic initiatives aimed at strengthening its position in the energy market:

• The company successfully executed its exit program from mature fields, enabling a shift towards more profitable shale operations. This strategic move led to a 44% reduction in lifting costs in Q4 compared to the previous year.
• YPF made substantial advancements in its LNG project development, formalizing partnerships with ENI and XRC, which are expected to solidify the company's leadership position in the global LNG market.
• The company completed several key acquisitions in Baca Muerta, including three world-class blocks, further enhancing its resource portfolio. Notably, the divestment of non-core assets is projected to generate nearly $1 billion in proceeds, reinforcing YPF's balance sheet and providing financial flexibility.
• Operational efficiencies were bolstered through the establishment of real-time intelligence centers, optimizing decision-making in refining and commercial processes. This technological transformation contributed to record-high refining utilization rates of nearly 100% in Q4.

Future Outlook

Looking ahead, YPF's management has expressed optimism for 2026, providing guidance that reflects continued growth and strategic focus. Key highlights include:

• The company targets an average production of approximately 215,000 barrels per day of shale oil in 2026, with an anticipated exit rate of 250,000 barrels per day by year-end.
• YPF expects Adjusted EBITDA to range between $5.8 billion and $6.2 billion, driven by the strategic shift towards shale operations and ongoing efficiency programs.
• The capital expenditure (CapEx) plan for 2026 is projected at $5.5 billion to $5.8 billion, with nearly 70% allocated to shale operations. This investment reflects the company's commitment to enhancing production capabilities while maintaining fiscal discipline.
• Free cash flow for the upcoming year is expected to be neutral to slightly negative due to the anticipated increase in CapEx and tax payments, offset by proceeds from M&A activities.
• YPF's net leverage ratio is projected to decrease to the range of 1.6 to 1.7 times, showcasing the company’s robust financial position and ability to meet its debt obligations.

“2025 was a transformational and landmark year for the company. We delivered exceptional operating performance, consistently beating our own records across all business segments,” stated Horacio Marin, YPF's Chairman and CEO.

Conclusion

In summary, YPF's fourth-quarter and full-year results for 2025 underscore the company's resilience and strategic focus. With record-high EBITDA and operational efficiencies, the company is well-positioned for future growth in the shale oil sector and the LNG market. The strategic divestments and acquisitions made throughout 2025 reflect YPF's commitment to becoming a leading shale player and a significant exporter. As the company navigates the challenges of a volatile price environment, its forward-looking guidance illustrates a clear path toward enhanced operational performance and shareholder value in the years to come. Investors should remain optimistic about YPF's strategic initiatives and financial health as it continues to execute its ambitious growth plans.