First Solar, Sunrun, and Enphase Gear Up as U.S. Solar Surge Faces Political Crosswinds in 2025
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Source: Imagn
Doherty Memorial High School and roof top solar panels
The U.S. solar industry is expected to grow significantly in 2025, with nearly 60 gigawatts of new capacity slated for addition—a 35% increase over the previous year. This momentum is largely driven by a combination of ongoing tax incentives and a sense of urgency among developers amid an unpredictable policy environment. Public companies such as First Solar (FSLR), Sunrun (RUN), and NextEra Energy (NEE) are well-positioned to benefit from this trend, while exchange-traded funds like Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) provide broader exposure to the sector’s movement.
Source: Imagn
FPL's Hibiscus Solar Energy Center
2024 marked a year of historic growth, with the U.S. solar industry adding close to 40 gigawatts of new capacity. For the first time in decades, solar energy accounted for more than half of all new electricity-generating capacity added to the national grid in 2023. Companies involved in utility-scale and residential solar installations, such as Enphase Energy (ENPH) and SunPower (SPWR), could see revenue boosts, though their outlook remains linked to continued federal support.
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Source: Imagn
Solar panels stand above a playground at Zilker Elementary in Austin, Texas
Texas continues to lead the U.S. in solar expansion, projected to contribute 13.6 gigawatts in new capacity by the end of 2025. The state is on track to hold 16% of national solar capacity, while the Midwest is also witnessing accelerated growth. Investors monitoring regional utility players like Vistra Corp (VST) may find opportunities in these developments, particularly in states where energy diversification is gaining political and economic traction.
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Source: Imagn
Alliant Energy, ISU discuss solar farm collaboration and research benefits.
The federal 30% solar investment tax credit remains a central driver of installation activity, but its future is uncertain. Concerns are rising over potential rollbacks, especially with a Republican-controlled Congress and upcoming electoral shifts. Companies like Shoals Technologies (SHLS) and Sunnova Energy (NOVA) are attempting to capitalize on current incentives, though investors should closely track any legislative updates that could alter the industry's economics.
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Source: Imagn
Wind turbines at 2025 agriculture expo
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has led to measurable growth in domestic solar manufacturing. Over 115 renewable energy facilities have opened or expanded since 2022, contributing to more than 100,000 new jobs. U.S.-based manufacturers such as Array Technologies (ARRY) and Hanwha Qcells are gaining from increased demand and policy support. However, a reversal of these provisions could impact facility investments and supply chain confidence.
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Source: Imagn
Workers finish constructing an intermodal container chassis trailer
While global solar panel prices have declined by approximately 50% due to oversupply, particularly from China, U.S. prices have remained relatively firm, dropping only 10–15%. This is largely attributed to tariffs and trade restrictions, including the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, which blocks imports from China’s Xinjiang region. For investors, this pricing structure may favor companies with domestic manufacturing capacity, such as First Solar (FSLR), and pose challenges for those dependent on low-cost imports.
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Source: Imagn
President Trump speaks at a public event
Current trade measures continue to influence the competitive dynamics within the solar market. Tariffs on Southeast Asian panel imports have created an environment where U.S.-based firms, including Meyer Burger and REC Silicon (RNWEF), have improved market standing. Meanwhile, companies like Canadian Solar (CSIQ) that rely on international sourcing are encountering elevated costs and potential delays, affecting project timelines and financial outlooks.
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Source: Imagn
Headland Solar Project proposes 220MW farm across Livingston County land
As of December 2023, the solar sector employed approximately 279,447 individuals, reflecting a 5.9% increase over the previous year. Growth was seen across 47 states, particularly in Florida, Texas, Arizona, and Nevada. While this expansion underscores sector vitality, investors should remain aware of ongoing challenges, including skilled labor shortages and regional disparities in training infrastructure.
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Source: Imagn
Lauren Boebert wears “Drill Baby Drill” outfit before Biden speech.
Former President Donald Trump’s stance on solar energy has combined approval for rooftop installations with skepticism toward utility-scale solar farms. His broader policy proposals, including efforts to curtail the Inflation Reduction Act, introduce potential risks for the sector. For market participants, the policy landscape remains a critical variable in forecasting future performance, particularly for firms like Enphase Energy (ENPH) and Sunrun (RUN), which are more reliant on stable federal support.